More fizzle than sizzle

Josh looks at what Georgia has coming back in the explosiveness arena… and finds 2019 sadly lacking in that regard.

EPA, explosiveness, and efficiency are all related. EPA (Expected Points Added) is just a number to add value to a play. EPA numbers ascribe a value to a play beyond the binary “Successful/Unsuccessful” metric that is represented in the success rate. A successful play (play gaining 50% yards to gain on 1st, 70% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd/4th) will have a positive EPA. Conversely, a play that is unsuccessful will have a negative EPA. Positive EPA plays are added summed to create Explosiveness for a game/season. That Explosiveness Metric is divided by number of Positive EPA Plays (AKA Successful Plays) to create Explosive Rate. Coach Smart after the SECCG lamented on UGA’s explosiveness.

Narrator’s Voice:  He wasn’t the only one.

To give you some idea of their relative merits, here’s a chart Josh compiled:


Not a lot of Gs there, tellingly.  And what’s there isn’t all that great.

… But, to build on the EPA metric, you can glance and see that wide receivers dominate EPA numbers. Running backs get volumes of touches but tend not to be efficient/explosive with those touches. Zamir White’s EPA for 2019 was a paltry .06. In 2018, he was quite efficient for an RB at .296 on 178 countable plays.

Kirby wanted explosiveness, but Georgia’s ground game-oriented offense wasn’t built for that.  Regardless of who made that so, Smart knew he couldn’t stick with it.  Exit James Coley.

Todd Monken is being paid over a million dollars a year to be Smart’s offensive coordinator.  It is my sincere hope that next January I find him to be underpaid.



Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

6 responses to “More fizzle than sizzle

  1. gotthepicture

    That amazing Gator offense coached by offensive wizard and developer, Dan Mullen did chart that well either.


  2. Let’s wait and see how explosive LSU is going to be after the exit of Brady and Burrow. I’m not sold at all on Steve Ensminger by himself.

    When you decide that your offensive first rule is to do no harm, surprise, you aren’t going to be very explosive. When your best receiver gets hurt and your next best receiver needed to grow up, surprise, you don’t hit a lot of plays in the passing game.

    Fromm hit on 2 out of every 3 passes in 2018 at a clip of 9 yards per attempt and was better statistically as a freshman than he was as a junior. He had multiple long TD passes his first two seasons. What changed? Losing his 3 best receivers – 2 early entrants and 1 kicked off the team.

    Oh yeah, James Coley did him no favors.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. I guess we will know at the end of the season if this chart means anything.


  4. “Zamir White’s EPA for 2019 was a paltry .06. In 2018, he was quite efficient for an RB at .296 on 178 countable plays.”

    Did I miss something? Zamir White didn’t play in 2018.


  5. Texas Dawg

    My parents investing philosophy reminds me of Kirby’s offensive philosophy. Only invest in things where the principle is never at risk or at worst very low risk (CD’s, Bonds etc). You may be fine as long as there is no inflation (LSU lighting it up). Once that happens you are screwed since you have no hope of keeping up.