Connelly updates the preseason SP+ rankings.

Here’s the top ten teams which, at least for now, will be playing, along with some that won’t:

Screenshot_2020-09-01 College football preseason SP+ rankings Ohio State tops Alabama, Clemson

A few thoughts:

  • Man, if I were Ohio State, I would be seriously bummed at the prospect of a lost season.
  • After all of its personnel losses, LSU dropped from sixth to thirteenth.
  • Georgia’s defensive SP+ number is ridiculously dominant.
  • The two teams with the most upside, in my humble opinion, are Georgia and Oklahoma, both of which are studs on one side of the ball and considerably weaker on the other.

Thoughts?

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UPDATE:  Not really much change in strength of schedule rankings.

36 Comments

Filed under College Football, Stats Geek!

36 responses to “Connelly updates the preseason SP+ rankings.

  1. 79dawg

    Guess its just asking too much to put a big fat “zero” in Ohio State’s expected win column….

    Liked by 1 person

    • dawgtired7

      It’s funny that the B10 bailed, no doubt thinking all conferences would follow suit. Now that it looks like there will be football for a few conferences, they are scrambling to put a plan in to play at some time…but they haven’t figured it out. 🙂

      Like

      • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

        What’s even more amazing is the ACC and SEC literally started working on every possible contingency since April. The Big-12 started around June and caught-up. The Pac-12 was never going to play the Fall season because of their insane states, so they never bothered.

        The Big Ten however, made a big show of telling everyone they would do this or that, pretended to try to work with the other four conferences only to stab them in the back by saying in July they would only play conference games, and then even released a schedule… and through all that, they, like the Pac-12, had no intention of playing a season.

        The Big Ten put more effort into the lie to keep up appearances, when if they made those same efforts into trying to figure out how to play this fall, they’d be right were we, the ACC, and the Big-12 are.

        Like

  2. Castleberry

    Frankly surprised the Gators are that high. Bill’s #’s are usually my go-to. This is making me question everything.

    Like

    • PTC DAWG

      Gators D as good as Bama? Unpossible.

      Liked by 1 person

    • practicaldawg

      After 4th there is a lot of parity. It’s probably impossible to really sort out 5-10.

      Like

      • Down Island Way

        How interchangeable are 1-3 (or even 1-2), UGA owns # 4…i know numbers don’t lie, there is something about FU that says it’s a long fall from all this media hope…should the 2020 season (?) finish, there are gonna be an ass load of 8-3/9-2 teams, i just don’t view FU in that group…

        Liked by 1 person

        • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

          I don’t see how they’re better than 7-3. They will lose to us, LSU, and TAMU. Add in a tough Kentucky team they could easily lose to, and I just don’t see that team winning more than 7 games.

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        • otto1980

          I don’t see any Mullen offense being elite without a QB that is a real run threat. Trask in my opinion is a good pocket passer but he is not a dual threat. Further I don’t think the Crocs have the horses in the RB stable for a traditional offense. UGA should win.

          I can see them finishing 2nd in the East with 1 loss to UGA, which makes it a must win. LSU lost quite a bit but should beat them. A&M who knows? The bobble heads have expected A&M to have a break out year since Johnny Football’s 2nd season, and they haven’t delivered.

          Like

  3. Sam Johnson

    Agree on Oklahoma. Second year for Grinch as D coordinator, recruiting on that side had been just fine. If Rattler really is all that, this could be a really good team.

    Totally don’t get UF unless he is expecting a lot from new receivers and RBs.

    Liked by 1 person

    • MGW

      Technically Bill doesn’t actually “see” anything. His rankings are based purely on advanced statistics. All he does is periodically tweak the way his program analyzes the numbers to make them more and more accurate on an annual basis. Makes no subjective adjustments based on the eyeball test.

      Keep an eye on them though. Because they’re based in large part on past performance, they get more and more accurate as the season goes on. The preseason stuff based on the past season’s performance falls out of the equation as current season numbers gain more weight.

      Like

  4. PTC DAWG

    I’m having a real sad for the Big 10….

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Oregon’s defense jumped out me as a surprise at #2.

    Like

  6. ASEF

    LSU has by my count 4 key guys opting out plus 2 transfers within the last week. 5 of those guys were on defense and 3 of them were defensive linemen?

    Sounds like a lot of guys miss Aranda.

    No way LSU ends up Top 20 this year.

    Oregon with a #2 defense? That seems… sketchy.

    I think Oklahoma will be much improved on defense this year. They could be scary as a team by the end of the year if Rattler lives up to the hype.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

    I don’t know what’s more ridiculous: Floriduh at No. 5 overall, or Oregon’s defense at No. 2.

    Bill’s slipping since he joined Mickey.

    Like

    • Oregon was 11th nationally in defensive ypp last season and brings back a ton of experience.

      Steele ranks their three units as 6th (d-line), 11th (LBs) and 1st (DBs).

      But Bill’s slipping…

      By the way, have you seen Thibodeaux play? Guy will be the most dominant d-lineman in the country this year.

      Liked by 3 people

      • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

        It’s difficult for me to trust national subsets when CFB is not a national sport. Given how bad the Pac-12 is as a whole, I expect the best team in that league to have a defense that ranks well nationally.

        Remember in 2006 when Georgia played the statistically best defense in all of CFB in VaTech? And how we went on to score 28 unanswered points in the second half with a freshman QB at the helm?

        I tend to take those things with a grain of salt.

        Like

    • MGW

      If BillC’s numbers say Florida should be pretty good, they’re probably going to be pretty good. We should definitely win based on those numbers (per his statistics our defensive advantage is far greater than their offensive advantage), but I’ve also been convinced for a while that this is a year the players best not take them lightly or we’ll get beat for sure. His numbers bear that out.

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      • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

        It doesn’t appear as if Bill takes into account all of Floriduh’s close, one-score wins the last two years (which are anomalies) nor take into account that Trask is a dink and dunker whose success was almost completely due to his pass catcher’s athleticism.

        I find it difficult to believe Floriduh is going to have much success on offense with most of those pass catchers gone, an o-line that will be worse, and a running game that will still be suspect.

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        • MGW

          It’s a bit of a mouthful to try to explain his numbers but just google SP+. You don’t have to like it but the guys numbers consistently are one of the top two or three predictors against the spread; generally in the 53-56% neighborhood on the year. Which is amazing.

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          • (which if used to gamble actual Dollar$ would still likely net negative earnings…) ;(

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            • gurkhadawg

              Please explain Lone. I’m not being a smart ass. Just want to know if I am looking at the numbers wrong. If you bet the same amount on a large enough number of games, it seems like it would be impossible to lose.

              Like

  8. Wonder what the total SP+ rating would be with just a top 20 offense for Georgia. James Coley, the gift that keeps on giving.

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  9. MGW

    Senator, is there some paywall ESPN keeps Bill’s stuff behind? He was utterly prolific at SBNation, but ESPN seems to just barely trickle his stuff out now.

    Like

  10. 81Dog

    I wonder if it’s reasonable to think the offensive talent on hand for UGA has a much better chance of becoming/developing into a significant weapon than the OU defense? I don’t know much about OU, but UGA seems like the O could be pretty good.

    Like