I’ve seen several suggestions in the comments that Georgia running a more open offense under Todd Monken is likely to lead to a lessened defensive performance because of, among other reasons, a greater chance of turnovers. That got me curious: is there a Monken track record of increased turnovers?
Maybe yes, maybe no.
First, courtesy of cfbstats.com, here’s the baseline, which is turnovers lost during Smart’s four seasons (national ranking in parenthesis).
- 2016: 19 (56th)
- 2017: 16 (34th)
- 2018: 14 (15th)
- 2019: 13 (14th)
Now, here’s Monken’s record in two seasons as Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator and then three as Southern Miss’ head coach.
- 2011: 23 (62nd)
- 2012: 22 (60th)
- 2013: 38 (125th)
- 2014: 26 (101st)
- 2015: 25 (104th)
Holy drop the ball, Batman! Clearly there’s some turnover fire to that more open offense smoke.
Well, maybe. Here’s the thing — look at what the giveaway numbers were at those two places the year before Monken took the reins.
- 2010: 22 (54th)
- 2012: 28 (102nd)
In context, then, Monken’s regime at both places then didn’t really amount to a full scale escalation of turnovers, with the exception of that wretched 2013 season when he inherited a disaster from Ellis Johnson. It’s also worth pointing out that, over the 2012-5 period, USM went from averaging 4.90 yards per play to 6.91 ypp, so that was a lot of improvement without much turnover cost.
If the pattern remains consistent, we might expect a slight uptick in turnovers lost. At least that’s what those numbers suggest to me, anyway. And you?