Some Week 1 numbers

To date, there are 72 FBS teams that have played football.  Here’s where the 14 SEC teams rank among them in defensive yards per play:

  • Texas A&M:  5 (3.81)
  • Georgia:  6 (4.18)
  • Arkansas:  9 (4.35)
  • Alabama:  12 (4.41)
  • Auburn:  20 (4.92)
  • Mississippi State:  22 (5.06)
  • Tennessee:  25 (5.12)
  • Kentucky:  41 (5.68)
  • South Carolina: 49 (6.06)
  • Missouri:  50 (6.09)
  • Vanderbilt:  60 (6.76)
  • Florida:  69 (7.86)
  • LSU:  71 (8.32)
  • Ole Miss:  72 (8.68)

And here are their rankings, offensive yards per play:

  • Florida:  1
  • Mississippi State:  3
  • Ole Miss:  5
  • Texas A&M:  13
  • Alabama:  26
  • Tennessee:  28
  • Auburn:  43
  • South Carolina:  51
  • LSU:  52
  • Kentucky:  56
  • Missouri:  66
  • Georgia:  67
  • Arkansas:  69
  • Vanderbilt:  71

Conference rankings, net yards per play:

  1. Mississippi State 3.26
  2. Texas A&M 2.95
  3. Alabama 1.68
  4. Tennessee 0.94
  5. Florida 0.82
  6. Auburn 0.76
  7. Georgia 0.17
  8. Arkansas -0.17
  9. Kentucky -0.76
  10. Ole Miss -0.82
  11. South Carolina -0.94
  12. Missouri -1.68
  13. Vanderbilt -2.95
  14. LSU -3.26

And, just for yuks, here’s where the SEC stands nationally in turnover margin per game:

  • Auburn 3 (+3)
  • LSU 5 (+2)
  • Tennessee 5 (+2)
  • Vanderbilt 15 (+1)
  • Georgia 15 (+1)
  • Alabama 15 (+1)
  • Florida 36 (0)
  • Ole Miss 36 (0)
  • Texas A&M 57 (-1)
  • Missouri 57 (-1)
  • Arkansas 57 (-1)
  • Mississippi State 63 (-2)
  • South Carolina 63 (-2)
  • Kentucky 70 (-3)

Small sample size, I know, but a few impressions:

  • MSU’s numbers are impressive, to say the least, but are they sustainable?
  • The turnovers certainly hurt Kentucky, but it’s not like the ‘Cats were dominating the game otherwise.
  • Georgia essentially broke even on ypp and still won by the widest margin in the SEC on Saturday.  I doubt that would have been the case if the game had been played in the second half of 2019.
  • Turnovers have always been an excellent barometer for how Boom’s teams play.  63rd in turnover margin is not a good omen.
  • Vandy kept the score tight against TAMU, but the ‘Dores were never really a threat.

Thoughts?

23 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

23 responses to “Some Week 1 numbers

  1. Randy Adams

    I saw the Kentucky game a little differently. There was a key turnover in their own territory that changed this game. If you go back and look, Auburn one the two stats that you need to win – Scoreboard and turnovers. But they lost every key category after that, including a big gap in time of possession. This game was winnable game for Kentucky.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I thought Auburn wore them down in the second half, at least mentally. And Nix outplayed Wilson.

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    • godawgs1701

      That game is going to keep Mark Stoops up late at night in January and February, no doubt. The sequence at the end of the half where they got screwed out of a touchdown by bad officiating and then turned the ball over changed the entire game. They melted down in the 4th quarter, but the entire complexion of the game could have been so different by that point. Until they saw their shadow in the 4th, I spent the entire game thinking they were the better team. If we could swap offensive lines, I’d take theirs with no hesitation.

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      • Russ

        That screwing by the refs just pissed me off. Why even have replay when everyone in the civilized world can see one thing, and the blind monkey in the replay booth sees something else?

        Liked by 1 person

        • originaluglydawg

          LIke the twenty yard hold by Florida a couple of years ago. Kentucky gets screwed more than UGA and that’s saying something (esp from a Dawg fan).When you couple the way refs screw Kentucky with the way they help any SEC team sandwiched between Mississippi and Georgia, the Cats never really had a chance.

          Liked by 1 person

        • mddawg

          I thought at the time that Kentucky got screwed, but I didn’t watch the replay or hear the discussion afterward. After actually watching the replay, I could see how they thought the runner was short.

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          • biggusrickus

            I thought his knee might have touched. With the shadow it’s impossible to tell if it’s actually hitting the ground, though. That’s certainly not a definitive shot. And seeing as they didn’t spot it at the two, that’s not the justification for failing to rule it a touchdown.

            Liked by 2 people

            • mddawg

              I read in that twitter thread (it’s on the internet, so it must be true!) that his knee touched at the 2 but the ball was at the 1 when his knee touched so that’s why it was placed there on the ensuing snap. It also sounds like the refs didn’t do a good job of explaining that after the review. As you said, the shadow makes it impossible to tell, so I can only assume the refs called it short on the field and there wasn’t enough evidence to overturn it.

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              • biggusrickus

                They spotted it at the half-yard-line and said the ruling on the field stands. If Auburn fans want to convince themselves of something other than the reality of the situation, that’s fine, but it was a blown call. Now Wilson could have rendered it moot by not making one of the worst decisions I’ve ever seen, but it shouldn’t have come to that.

                Liked by 1 person

  2. godawgs1701

    I don’t know if Mississippi State can keep that production going all season long, but I do know that they’re going to absolutely set Arkansas on fire on Saturday. If they couldn’t keep up with our sputtering offense for four quarters, I don’t think they’re going to be ready to chase Mike Leach’s guys all over the field.

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  3. DawgStats

    Net YPP is extremely good metric. >2.0 YPP net is CFP worthy.

    Teams that have higher net YPP are 13-5 in playoff.

    (LSU had 2.8 to CU’s 2.9 in 2019)

    Liked by 2 people

  4. I think you’re missing UT and Bama in Offensive YPP list.

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  5. otto1980

    UGA also won by the widest margin partially in part to the defense scoring 9 points.

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  6. ASEF

    Leach has an outside shot of heading into the Bama game undefeated, which would probably have them in top 10. Bama has a young secondary. Could be interesting. @Kentucky seems most likely candidate to trip that up.

    Saw an interesting video yesterday of Florida running the same basic passing play 10 times out of different formations. 9/10 with 2 TDs, with Trask hitting all 5 reads at some point along the way. I’m pretty sure I know how Lanning and Smart will attack it, but that game is going to be a fascinating chess match, which it really hasn’t been for awhile.

    LSU 2019 everything went right. 2020 looking like the opposite for them. They won’t do a first-to-worst in the SECW (thanks, Arkie), but they’re going to flirt with .500.

    Drinkwitz is going to turn Missouri into a tough out. Not this season, but they’re going to surprise someone along the way. Good chance they’re the straw that breaks Boom’s back in Columbia. They likely head into that game 1-6, but that’ll be thanks to their schedule.

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  7. Russ

    Arky will struggle this year, but Sam has put together a good staff with Kendall Briles and Barry Odom. Not sure they have the players to run Briles’ offense, but Odom is a good DC and they will play tough.

    Liked by 1 person

    • practicaldawg

      2020 will be Arkansas’s best O’fer in the SEC season yet. Kidding aside, they probably will beat someone because 1) they have 2 more chances than usual to get a conference win and 2) some team on their schedule (probably near the end of the season) is bound to have given up on 2020 and will give them a win.

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  8. akascuba

    Sure am glad I`m not a USCe fan. With UT and FU getting better along with the UGA recruiting machine rolling on. The future looks bad no matter who they hire. In the West Bama stays Bama until Saban says No MAS and heads to the lake.

    Liked by 1 person