Junior, Junior, Junior…
Maybe it was an editorial comment.
Daily Archives: October 2, 2020
“Is Georgia’s offense still broken?”
That’s the question Bill Connelly asks this morning. (That “still” kinda stings, Bill.)
I ain’t gonna lie, though. This is thoroughly putrid:
How does Georgia fare on third down? Coaches will say the best way to convert on third downs is to avoid them altogether and convert on first or second, but Georgia faced 20 third downs against Arkansas and converted only six. Assuming Auburn isn’t any more generous in the big-play department (it could be a disaster for the Tigers if they are), Georgia’s offensive success will be determined in these situations.
That’s a lot, in case you were wondering. The last time Georgia was faced with converting 20 third downs in a game was against Missouri, in 2016.
The silver lining, if you want to call it that is Auburn’s defense last week.
Auburn was strangely generous on third downs against Kentucky, though; the Wildcats also faced 20 of them but converted 12. It was a strange game, really — Kentucky went three-and-out nearly half the time, but if the Wildcats converted that first third down, they were able to drive pretty far into AU territory. It kept them in the game into the fourth quarter, and Georgia could do the same, only with a defense that tamps down Auburn’s point total far better.
It should also be pointed out that the offense was 6-10 on third down conversions when Bennett was in at quarterback, so I’m not sure how much weight should be given to this concern. That being said, it may not matter anyway, since Auburn’s offense has its own issues.
… Through one game, Auburn ranks 64th in pressure rate (38%) and 50th in passing downs sack rate (11%) despite Nix throwing mostly short, quick passes.
Auburn’s rebuilt offensive line didn’t get much of a passing grade, in other words, and now the Tigers have to face the aforementioned top defense in football. If Auburn can’t protect Nix and avoid three-and-outs, it might not matter how Georgia’s offense will do on its own third downs.
Gee, I’m starting to think this may not be a pretty game to watch.
Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
This week, in the SEC
Thoughts on the other six games:
- Missouri at Tennessee -10.5. The Vols offense sputtered a lot against South Carolina and still managed to put up 31. Missouri was outmatched against Alabama — duh — but still managed to look somewhat respectable on defense. The Tigers also should get back the players who were out due to COVID concerns. Add it all up and it looks like Mizzou covers, but doesn’t win on the road.
- South Carolina at Florida -18.5. The Gators’ defense can’t really be that bad, can it? I expect Boom will make Mullen work a little harder for points this week than he did against Ole Miss. Gators win, but don’t cover.
- Texas A&M at Alabama -16.5. It sure feels like Jimbo’s about to get taken to the woodshed. ‘Bama rolls.
- Ole Miss at Kentucky -6.5. I could be wrong, but this has the possibility of being the most entertaining game of the weekend. Terry Wilson had better show signs of improvement if the ‘Cats don’t want to see their season unravel. I’m thinking UK does just enough to win, but doesn’t cover.
- Arkansas at Mississippi State -18.5. Barry Odom can’t be as stubbornly stupid as Bo Pelini was, can he? Even if he’s not, will it matter? I’m guessing not. MSU covers.
- LSU at Vanderbilt +20.5. The ‘Dores are the conference’s only home dog this week and they’re the perfect opponent for an LSU team looking to rinse the bad taste out of their mouths after last weekend’s upset. Stingley being back only helps. LSU covers, and covers easily.
The most interesting aspect to this week’s games ought to be seeing who improves in week two and who doesn’t. Your guess on that is as good as mine.
Filed under SEC Football
Edgy Georgia-Auburn
Jake Rowe’s breakdown of position unit advantage between the two teams:
- Quarterback:Â Auburn
- Running back:Â Push
- Tight end:Â Georgia
- Wide receiver:Â Auburn
- Offensive line:Â Georgia
- Defensive line:Â Georgia
- Linebacker:Â Georgia
- Defensive backs:Â Georgia
- Special teams:Â Push
I tend to think analysis like that are, if not somewhat flawed, at least a little misdirected, in that the comparison should really be between the units that actually face off against each other.
That being said, I think Rowe does get to the heart of the matter when he concludes,
The Bulldogs have a more talented roster from top to bottom and an edge on the lines of scrimmage. If the matchup between Georgia’s defensive line and Auburn’s offensive line is as decisive as it could be, that might be enough on its own. Throw in the fact that Auburn has struggled so much in Athens, and it all points in the same direction.
Georgia’s defense will be the best single unit on the field Saturday. If the offense can avoid screwing up, that should be the difference, ultimately.
Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football
Dance with what brung ‘ya
Just because this is a pretty obvious take doesn’t mean it’s completely off base:
What does Georgia do at quarterback against Auburn?
The situation at quarterback is the most interesting aspect of a key SEC rivalry typically reserved for the second half of the season. Last week’s starter, D’Wan Mathis, was pulled during Georgia’s 37-10 win against Arkansas and replaced by Stetson Bennett, who at one point earlier in September was the Bulldogs’ fourth-string option. That pair is joined by a recently cleared JT Daniels, the Southern California transfer who was working his way back from a knee injury. This is where non-conference play would’ve helped: Georgia could have used an easier opponent to further evaluate Mathis or ease Daniels into the season. Instead, the Bulldogs enter a key matchup without any clear answers under center.
Would it have been nice to work out the kinks against a Sun Belt opponent this Saturday? Sure, but that’s not the hand Todd Monken’s been dealt.
The rumor mill has been at full speed this week in terms of which of Georgia’s three most likely candidates to play have been getting practice snaps. I have no idea which, if any, rumors are most accurate.
I wouldn’t be surprised if more than one quarterback gets in the game, but I’ll stick with my take from earlier in the week and say that the coaches should go with familiarity and comfort with the offensive scheme over sheer talent. If the game is shaping up as a defensive struggle, Georgia simply can’t afford to give possessions away.
Filed under Georgia Football
Make ’em sputter.
Based on the success rate post from yesterday, this shouldn’t be much of a surprise, but, still, Georgia’s defense was pretty dominant last Saturday.
There are some pretty strange numbers there, small sample size or not. I would have expected the Alabama-Missouri numbers to be reversed, for one thing. Florida never went three-and-out; I don’t care if you’re playing against air, that’s pretty impressive.
What do you guys see there?
Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!
Not the play calling mix I was expecting
Not sure this means much, but I did find it interesting to compare:
So, Stetson was RPO Dude and Mathis was Mr. Play Action. I don’t know if Monken was deliberately calling against type, or if that’s where practice indicated their respective strengths were. (And, yes, small sample size and all that…)
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics
Get The Picture 