Serving fake juice on the Gus Bus

Man, this is really straining to come up with an emotional edge.

Auburn offensive coordinator Chad Morris was fired after one-plus season at Arkansas last November after posting a 4-18 record during his tenure. Staying in the SEC West, Morris will get to see his former program this weekend when the Razorbacks travel to Auburn…

“I would say it’s definitely personal for (Morris),” center Nick Brahms said, via the Princeton Daily Clarion. “Nobody takes him for granted, because he’s a great person and a great man and a great coach. This is his former team that he coached for, so we’re going to play hard for him.”

You don’t manage to win 20% of the games you coach, get canned for the results (receiving a $10 million buyout in the process) and somehow you’re the aggrieved party?

I’m just spitballing here, but maybe Morris would do better taking the whipping Georgia’s defense administered last week personally.

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Key to the UGA-UT game?

Bud Elliott thinks he’s found it.

The line gives them a shot in this game. I want to see how much of it can translate. So far Tennessee is No. 3 in the country at avoiding third-and-long. To what extent Tennessee can continue that will be crucial in this game. And they’ve played two SEC defenses, though not good ones, but it’s not like they’ve played a soft schedule. Seven out of ten third downs faced by Tennessee are not long downs. That’s awesome.

And as a result, QB Jarret Guarantano has not been asked to face many passing downs. They have run the ball, thrown the short pass, and stayed ahead of the chains.

I have questions about Guarantano and the Tennessee receivers. I don’t know if Tennessee has difference makers outside.

So can Tennessee continue its avoidance of long down and distance? And how well will Guarantano and the receivers play in those situations? That will be a major key in this game because I suspect Georgia’s awesome defense will force a lot of leverage situations.

So far, the Tennessee passing game has been bad on third and five plus. Guarantano has dropped back 11 times in that situation. Twice they converted for a first down, three times he was sacked, and four times the ball fell incomplete.

Or, to put it another way…

The SEC's most/least pressured QBs on 3rd Down – min 9 3D att

1. F. Franks 18.8%
2. J. Guarantano 20%
3. C. Bazelak 22.2%
3. S. Bennett 22.2%
5. KJ Costello 26.1%

13. M. Corral 50%
13. K. Trask 50%
12. B. Nix 44.4%
11. M. Jones 41.7%
10. M. Brennan 37.5%

SEC AVR = 32.4%

— SEC StatCat (@SEC_StatCat) October 8, 2020

So, is Guarantano a case of a quarterback who’s grown and figured out how to play the position, or has Jim Chaney done a good job of leveraging his solid offensive line play and running game to protect Guarantano from his inconsistencies?  Either way, what can Georgia’s defense do about it?

Well, for one thing, there’s this:

The SEC defenses that generate the most HAVOC per snap

1. Florida 22.9%
2. LSU 22.95
3. Miss St 21.5%
4. UGA 19.4%
5. UK 19.4%
6. Alabama 18.5%
7. Tenn 18.4%
8. Auburn 17.9%
9. Arkansas 16.2%
10. TAMU 15.6%
11. SCar 15.3%
12. Mizz 14.1%
13. Missouri 14.1%
14. Vandy 13.8% pic.twitter.com/UAkOxufi9G

— SEC StatCat (@SEC_StatCat) October 8, 2020

And this…

The SEC's most successful Run Defenses

1. TAMU
2. UGA
3. Alabama
4. Arkansas
5. UK
6. Vandy
7. Miss State
8. Tenn
9. Mizz
10. LSU
11. SCar
12. Auburn
13. Florida
14. Ole Misshttps://t.co/ULxmEt1vCP pic.twitter.com/AvJC1GSmEP

— SEC StatCat (@SEC_StatCat) October 8, 2020

And, finally, this.

The SEC's stingiest defenses at allowing explosive runs (10+)

1. UGA
2. Auburn
3. Miss State
4. Alabama
5. SCar
6. Florida
7. Tenn
8. Arkansas
9. LSU
10. TAMU
11. UK
12. Mizz
13. Ole Miss
14. Vandyhttps://t.co/ULxmEt1vCP pic.twitter.com/PrAYuhNhVF

— SEC StatCat (@SEC_StatCat) October 8, 2020

Job One looks like what it always is for Smart and Lanning — stop the other guy’s running attack.  Not an easy thing to do this week.  As this tweet shows, it’s strength against strength.

#TennVsUGA#Vols = #1 in #SEC rush grade, #2 run block grade, #2 explosive runs & #2 rush %#Dawgs = #1 run defense grade (#4 in FBS), Fewest explosive runs allowed, fewest 1st downs allowed on rush atts

That & more at 1:00 on #AroundTheLeaguehttps://t.co/aZ2IdYwwLL pic.twitter.com/JS8CeY3f8S

— Brent Rollins (@PFF_Brent) October 8, 2020

Essentially, Jim Chaney is doing at UT what he did at UGA, albeit with less talent at the skill positions.  Can Georgia’s defense take him out of his comfort zone?  Or — and I know this is a somewhat weird thought — can Georgia’s offense be productive enough to accomplish the same ends?

From Manball to Monken

It’s a small sample size to work with, but Dean Legge is convinced after two games that Georgia’s offense under Kirby Smart has entered a new phase.

If it feels like you’ve seen more of Georgia’s offense of late that’s because you are.

Kirby Smart has coached 58 games in his five years so far in Athens. Georgia’s two games this year – both double-digit wins over SEC foes – rank No. 3 and No. 13 overall in those 58 games.

And this: only two other times in Kirby’s tenure has the Dawgs’ offense snapped the ball more often in a two-game span. We are witnessing the Todd Mokenification of Georgia. Kirby brought him in, and we are starting to see it.

The key thing, too, is that in the past a lot of snaps probably meant Georgia was in trouble. The results from this year’s two-game stretch of more snaps is markedly different than in the past.

Well, maybe.

One thing that hasn’t changed under Monken is that the Dawgs continue to be among the conference leaders in time of possession, a Smart hallmark.

• 2016:  33:42.77 (2nd)
• 2017:  32:07.20 (3rd)
• 2018:  31:29.43 (3rd)
• 2019:  32:16.36 (2nd)
• 2020:  34:55.00 (3rd)

I’ll believe things have really changed when that ranking drops significantly.  The most I can say right now is that as long as the offense continues to protect the defense’s time on the field, Smart is willing to recognize there’s more than one way to skin that particular cat.

Me and the boys

So, there’s this.

Lane Kiffin revealed on @finebaum that he, Kirby Smart, Jeremy Pruitt and Will Muschamp have an ongoing group text. “We all come from the same father.”

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) October 8, 2020

I wonder if they’ve made a bet about which of them first beats daddy.

If any of them is using a school-issued phone to text and some enterprising person hasn’t already filed an Open Records request, I am one disappointed human being.

The SEC’s Week 3

Here’s what’s happening:

• South Carolina at Vanderbilt +12.5.  Sure, I’d love to see Boom struggle again, but we’re talking Vanderbilt here.  The ‘Dores are… um, not good.  ‘Cocks cover.
• Florida at Texas A&M +6.5.  This is one of those lines that make you scratch your head and wonder what Vegas knows and you don’t.  That being said, taking the Gators sure looks like easy money to me.
• Arkansas at Auburn -16.5.    What’s funny here is that both teams have a common opponent prism through which to gaze.  I don’t think Arky is as good as Georgia made them look in the first half and I don’t think Auburn is as bad as Georgia made them look for an entire game.  However, the Tigers losing Britt for the season in time for what looks to be a fairly low scoring game is just enough to sway me to pick the Hogs to lose, but cover the spread.
• Alabama at Ole Miss +24.5.  That’s a big number, driven by how bad Ole Miss’ defense is.  But the offense is good enough — and Junior’s the kind of guy who won’t stop — to make me think this game screams back door cover.  OM isn’t in the game from early on, but scores enough late to cover.
• Mississippi State at Kentucky -3.5.  I know the instinct here is to assume MSU blew its wad in the opener, but did you know that, with a whopping 195.63, Kentucky is last in D-1 in defensive passer rating?  Bulldogs not only cover, but win outright.
• LSU at Missouri +20.5.  They changed the site of the game, but they didn’t change Missouri’s roster.  LSU covers.

Co-opted

Shot.

Chaser.

There are times when I think life comes at Les Miles fast every single day.