Roll ‘Bama Roll’s Mortal Lock of the Week

You heard it here first.

Alabama -6 vs Georgia:

Yep. We’re here. Risking my 6-0 record on the season to give you an ironclad guarantee — Alabama will win this game, and will do so by double digits. Why?

First of all, the ‘Dawgs are undoubtedly impressive up front. They’ve bullied Auburn, turned it on against Arkansas, and slopped around versus Tennessee before finally pulling away. But in no case has the offense been impressive doing so. And it is just an offense that matches up better with an intellectually challenged Alabama defense, with inexperience all over the place. Hat-on-a-hat, UGA doesn’t want to trick you; they want to punish you up front. And that simple violence is precisely what this defense can likely counter the best. See Mizzou and Aggy.

On defense, the Bulldogs have seen absolutely nothing like the hellfire that can be dumped over their head in gooey buckets as they will on Saturday. Do they want to blitz against UA’s outstanding pass-blocking line and leave some iffy corners on an island against the speedy ‘Bama wide receivers? This says nothing of Mac Jones, who’s shown the willingness to scorch people over the top. Do the Dawgs sit back in a zone, where Mac is coming off a career game picking apart the same? Will they crowd the box on standard downs to sell-out against Najee, leaving screens and and dangerous double-move play-action passes open? We’ve not even seen what the Tide offense can do outside of the very vanilla plays its been tormenting opponents with to date.

And it’s on the road, where Road Kirby is not Home Kirby and the ‘Dawgs were gifted the Vols and Barn at home. Thus, their biggest test is on the road, against a man and a team that they’ve come to expect heartache from, and against whom Kirby has made some woeful coaching calls.

Yes, it will be a step up in class for the Tide offense. We won’t see stupid track meets that have become a fixture of Saturdays in 2020. Yes. We will still see screwups in execution by the Tide, particularly with Battle sitting for a half. And we will still see some frustrating big plays allowed and aggravating missed tackles. But, at the end of the day, a smart Mac Jones and too much team speed wins games.

If we’ve learned anything the last half-decade it’s that elite offense beats elite defenses 99 times out of 100…or certainly when it matters most. And the best one on the field will be wearing crimson. The Tide gets a garbage score late to make it look worse than it is, but ‘Bama covers: Alabama 34 — Georgia 20

‘Bama scoring 34, garbage time or not, certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibility (although if there’s a defense that can match speed, it’s this Georgia one), and his point about elite offense is my biggest concern about Saturday, but I am intrigued by the confidence shown in the defense holding Georgia to 20.  Particularly, I doubt anyone who has closely watched Georgia’s offense this season would boil Monken’s approach down to a simple “Hat-on-a-hat, UGA doesn’t want to trick you; they want to punish you up front”.  Maybe I’m wrong about that, though.  Thoughts?

47 Comments

Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football

47 responses to “Roll ‘Bama Roll’s Mortal Lock of the Week

  1. gastr1

    Re: Georgia’s offense…the results and the highlights probably look like last year if you’re another team’s blogger who isn’t bothering to look closely. But I have to say I can’t totally disagree with his assessment anyway, because even though the offensive scheme is improved, the players themselves are still pretty suspect, and any of us can see that.

    Defensively, too, I can’t see why he wouldn’t make the case he has. The corners have looked iffy. And LSU shredded the same defense last year. So what evidence do we have that this D can hold up against an elite passing game?

    Sorry to be skeptical, but I’m going to need evidence to the contrary against a truly good team. Hoping to get it on Sat.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Skepticism is justified, but one big difference between this year’s Alabama offense and last year’s LSU offense is that Jones lacks Burrow’s escapability.

      Liked by 10 people

      • No doubt. He was one of those guys that you call the perfect defense, execute it correctly, and him still gash you for a 15 yard scramble or a 25 yard shot down the field after shaking off a sack. Brady was a good playcaller, but their most demoralizing plays were ones that Burrow made happen with his athletic ability, not because the playcall was great.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Texas Dawg

        We got to Burrow quite often. The problem was that when we got there we could not do anything with it. He has to be one of the best at escaping and then burning you that I have ever seen. He did not just avoid a negative play, he turned them into huge pluses. I don’t see Jones doing that if we can make he get out of the pocket.

        Liked by 4 people

        • gastr1

          Re: the best at escaping and burning…Have you watched Patrick Mahomes? He’s unreal. Throws darts from every conceivable any angle. And from some that had not yet been conceived.

          Like

          • Texas Dawg

            You kind of left off that “one of the best” part. Never said he was “the best” just “one of the best” therefore implying there are at least several others who fit that description.

            Liked by 1 person

  2. timphd

    I hope all the Tide players read and believe this. Would be nice if they came in thinking a win is a guarantee.

    Liked by 5 people

  3. I agree with a lot of his analysis. The outcome he describes feels like one of many very plausible outcomes. But I can also see Georgia starting hot and pouring it on. I think that would be my key to the game: Georgia really needs to help itself by starting hot on offense. Bama isn’t used to playing in close games, and more importantly, their fans aren’t. Taking the crowd out of the game would really help down the stretch.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Patrick O'Rouke

    I’m not sure that guy understands what we actually do on defense. It’s been pretty rare this year that we’ve brought more than four. You just don’t know where the fourth guy is coming from, which is what has been tough for opposing OL. We can do that because our LBs are so athletic that they can cover well and our DBs are so quick that they can close quickly from the edge/through the gap. We’re not going to just sit back in zone, we’re going to mix it up in the back because we don’t have any weak links in the lineup that have to be accommodated.

    They’ll hit some big plays deep. But it’s not going to be something they can just call and expect it. They’re going to have to keep going to that well, and they’re going to risk a safety taking Mac’s head off when they do it. Najee will get his yards. But we’ll no doubt make him work for them. In the end, that’s what this Georgia defense does…they make you work for your yards. Heck, they even did it against LSU in the first half last year until they finally wore out because the offense kept putting them on the field. And I imagine we’ll call a game on the offensive side of the ball that limits possessions and emphasizes perfection. If we can win that kind of game against Alabama, Saban’s head might explode.

    Liked by 8 people

  5. dawg100

    I think lost Saturday was that the offense, despite two 4th down stops, and a snap six and not run blocking particularly well, etc., still had 17 at half, and nearly 24 against a top 20 caliber Defense.

    If that is Monken’s offense from here on out, it’ll suffice.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Derek

    I agree we should be worried about our offense. Bama’s defense has been a weak spot but its a big game and they’ll have eaten shit all week from all sides. Can we rtdb and hit those easy ones down the middle? Will they confound stetson like they’ve done hundreds of more talented qbs? We won’t know until we see it.

    Where he’s totally full of shit is on the other side of the ball. Our d has given them fits when they had tua and even more receivers than now. We’re going to make Mac Jones miserable just like when we chased Hurts in jan 2018 and rendered tua practically harmless the next December. And we did that with less on d than what we’re showing up with saturday.

    I wouldn’t try to predict this score but I will say this: its Stetson vs. Mac (his replacement?). That’s your battle. The kid who keeps his cool, limits mistakes, executes and cares for the ball like a new born infant wins.

    Liked by 8 people

    • TEXBaller

      I like this reply. Most accurate. Can SB4 get the job done? It’s really the only question. My analysis/pick will come Friday

      Like

  7. TN Dawg

    If I’m using recent history as a yardstick, a lot of this hinges on whether Ole Miss is actually any good on offense objectively.

    I suspect they.

    With that said, Bama does not have the defense they used to have, where you knew it was a matter of time before they turned you over and broke the game open.

    We were told last year it was because of injury, and perhaps it was. But I have seen nothing yet this year to indicate that it isn’t a bit of a liability, relatively speaking.

    If it is susceptible, I think we’ve got a pretty decent chance of putting up a fair amount of points. Perhaps 14-20 points off of offensive drives.

    Perhaps our defense creates some havoc and turns them over in plus territory. If so, add 7.

    If our defense/ST scores, add 7 more.

    If we can get to 28 or 31, I think we win. It’s just unimaginable for Bama to get to 34 points on this defense without us assisting in some way. I do not see (5) 70-yard drives against this defense.

    Last year’s D didn’t surrender that. This year’s definitely won’t.

    So to me the question is how/if we get to 28+ points. I don’t have much faith that we can unless Alabama’s defense is, in fact, a bit of a liability.

    Liked by 3 people

  8. Russ

    I think our offense is different this year and we’re averaging over 30 points per game (taking out defensive scores). I think we’re getting better each week so I could see us scoring 28 on them, and if we add a defensive score it will be tough for them to overcome.

    RBR’s scenario could certainly happen, but I wouldn’t think it’s a likely one.

    Liked by 2 people

    • TN Dawg

      I looked at those offensive numbers as well.

      I’ve tempted my expectations a bit because our earlier offensive output has been the beneficiary of several short fields.

      It’s just difficult to project this Alabama offense to turn the ball over like Arkansas and Gitmo at UT did.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Down Island Way

      Special teams play will have something to say Saturday night, not a bunch of bammers in the stands won’t mean much, if anything, depth, depth and depth Will mean a ton for UGA….

      Like

  9. biggusrickus

    Roll Bama Roll is an extreme homer blog. I could just as well write some BS like, “On offense, the Tide have seen absolutely nothing like the hellfire that can be dumped over their head in gooey buckets as they will on Saturday. Do they want to try to run on the immovable objects in the middle of the line? This says nothing of Ozeez Ojulari and Nolan Smith holding down the edges. Do they attack the flats where blah, blah, blah?” You get the point. That would be about as relevant to what’s going to happen Saturday.

    Liked by 7 people

  10. How much work did these guys have to put in on tackle drills this week? Their defense played a heck of a lot more snaps last week than ours did. If our defense plays well early, and Bennett can make a few plays to extend drives and keep us on the field, they might get heavy legs.

    Liked by 3 people

  11. originaluglydawg

    There is likely a gift or two under Georgia’s offensive Christmas tree that haven’t been opened yet. While Saban is trying to clean up all the mess his team left him against OMs, Monken may be unwrapping a surprise.
    While Monken isn’t prone to recklessness, he isn’t prone to predictability and a lack of imagination. He will have the offense in position to challenge Bama’s defense. New faces? Some very imaginative formations? A great amount of HUNH? You think we may have someone with a big arm that has been throwing deep to Pickens and the other receivers for a couple of weeks in practice?
    BTW…do you think after the OMs debacle that Bama isn’t going to have some designated defensive injury plays to slow things down? That’s the cheap (Auburn…UF…ND) way to handle that problem.

    Like

  12. willypmd

    “Do they want to blitz against UA’s outstanding pass-blocking line and leave some iffy corners on an island against the speedy ‘Bama wide receivers”

    😳

    Liked by 3 people

    • JaxDawg

      That’s the part that made me discredit this bloggers credibility. Tyson Campbell has been lock down, and stokes has speed to match any receiver in the SEC.

      I think it’s too early in the season to have a high degree of certainty on a win…for us or Bama. We haven’t seen an offense anything like theirs, and they haven’t seen a defense anything like ours. Barring self inflicted wounds by either side, it should be an exciting match up.

      Liked by 1 person

  13. Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

    IFFY CORNERS????

    Who is this fuck?

    Liked by 2 people

    • godawgs1701

      He could be someone who is looked further down the depth chart than Stokes and Campbell and saw DJ Daniel’s efforts in coverage on Tennessee’s first TD pass on Saturday. Daniels did get a shove in the back, but I don’t think that fully explains just how lost he looked.

      Like

  14. akascuba

    From their point of view I would agree. No one has yet to put fear into Mac Jones or brought the pain. If Lanning is able to do that its a game changer.

    Offensively we are a work in progress still looking for an identity. Well need SBIV to hit a couple of deep shots early. Hopefully to a tight end down the middle to open up the line of scrimmage. I really like his composure under fire. If we allow Bama to stack the box well be looking for a rematch.

    I really like our special teams play to date. Advantage UGA here.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. woodrowfcall82

    Am I the only one who thinks that is just a run of the mill troll job for generating clicks by UGA fans?

    Like

  16. My biggest concern in this game is DJ Daniel…I feel like he may be the weak link that gets torched a couple times and makes the difference in this game. I also feel like the OL that was playing against AU needs to show up big time for us to stay ahead of the sticks and execute, otherwise we may end up gifting a TD to the Tide’s D. Dawgs most definitely can win this game if we execute in all phases at the level possible, and I have to say that having Monken as OC gives me hope because I am sure he is seeing tendencies and breakdowns from last week’s tape vs. Ole Miss that he can exploit. Although I’m sure we’ll see a few more passes batted at the line of scrimmage for Bennett, I love having a guy with his moxy and playmaking ability at the helm for this one.

    Like

  17. psyopdawg

    F… Eric Evans and F… the Tide. It’s time for the Dawgs Dawgs to absolutely embarrass them.

    It feels like this team has a different mentality than previous years

    Like

  18. Ozam

    I think Alabama’s huge advantage is their big-play ability. Unless we can counter with something we haven’t seen out of our offense, or the D scoring lots of points, the odds of prevailing are low. It is just too difficult to have multiple double digit drives against good defenses

    Liked by 2 people

    • biggusrickus

      That’s the big thing Georgia has to even out, either by taking them away from Bama or getting enough of their own to counteract it. I have no doubt Georgia can limit Alabama’s big plays, but they probably can’t take them away entirely unless the pass rush is just phenomenal. On offense, there should be plays available down the field if Bennett can hit them. It would also be nice if someone could turn a 10 to 20-yard run into a 40 to 50-yarder.

      Like

  19. Greg

    Hope the team is as confident as this fellow. Still thinks defense wins (championships) for the most part, defenses usually catch up to offenses.

    The one that the dawgs have is built can to pull this off imo.

    As good as Bama is on ‘O, I think we are just a little better on ‘D and special teams and overall. Need a mistake free game and continued great special teams play.

    I thought Bama was invincible last year, but they were not….hoping we have their kryptonite..

    Like

  20. stoopnagle

    I’ve got no beef with their prediction. I do take umbrage with “…the ‘Dawgs were gifted the Vols and Barn at home because if there’s every a program that wasn’t gifted shit versus those two mofos, it’s Georgia.

    Liked by 3 people

    • stoopnagle

      Oh, and this bullshit: “… the Bulldogs have seen absolutely nothing like the hellfire that can be dumped over their head in gooey buckets…”

      Um, 2019 LSU, bitches.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Got Cowdog

        Yeah, Shitbird lost me at that. Fuck ’em. They may win but to quote Henry Frapp (Brian Keith) “That’ll be after the fight.”

        Like

    • godawgs1701

      I don’t know that the University of Alabama can really comment on anyone being gifted anyTHING by the SEC, but I digress.

      Like

  21. siskey

    I am skeptical that we will win because they are Bama and we have to beat them before I am confident that we can beat them. With that said, they do not tackle as well as they used to. This is not a “this” year problem, they did not tackle well last year nor did they tackle particularly well when we played them in 2018 compared to how they tackled 4-5 years ago. That gives me confidence that we can score some points and as was pointed out before, maintain some drives that use the clock and keep their offense off the field. Bennett concerns me. I want him to be the greatest QB ever and for him to be the one that leads us to a National Championship but I don’t know how he will do in T-Town against Saban and crew. However, I don’t know that Mac Jones is the 2d coming of Burrow either. Thus far, Georgia has played a tougher schedule and have come out relatively unscathed. I want this moment to be our “Blackout” game but I will settle for a focused and composed team that no matter the result plays their best knowing that IF we take care of things (Covid willing) that we will have to play them again. Go Fucking Dawgs!

    Liked by 1 person

  22. TripleB

    I wonder if we can pressure Jones. This guy says their o-line is really good–I don’t know. If we can pressure the q.b., especially rushing four, that could make a huge difference. Ya’ll are right that Burrows was a lot harder to catch (and tackle) than I suspect Jones will be. I’ve said before our chances hinge on whether our o-line can play better (we have to score against this team), but it might be just as important for them to have good o-line play.

    Like

  23. W Cobb Dawg

    utk had three 5-stars and two 4-stars on their OL and it didn’t keep us from unloading on the immobile Guantanamo. Their RBs, Chandler and Gray, were lighting it up, just like Najee, before last Saturday.

    The only reason Kirby hasn’t beat bama a couple times already was lousy officiating. And they’ve essentially become accustomed to us shooting ourselves in the foot. IF we lose, I’m all but certain it’ll be due to one or both of those factors.

    Liked by 3 people

  24. And that simple violence is precisely what this defense can likely counter the best. See Mizzou and Aggy

    If UGA gets 450 yards like A&M did against the Tide I like our chances.

    Like

  25. Hopefully this article is placed in every urinal in the training facility. Monken has a pretty full cupboard and appears to be more of a chess player rather than a checkers player. I like our chances…

    Liked by 1 person

  26. Will Adams

    Just heard Saban has covid on the radio. Will he still be able to be on the sidelines this weekend?

    Like