Bill Connelly lacks Kirby Smart’s confidence.

Before you go running off confidently predicting a sizeable margin in Georgia’s favor in the Peach Bowl, consider a couple of things Bill tweeted this morning.

Screenshot_2020-12-21 Bill Connelly on Twitter

Screenshot_2020-12-21 Bill Connelly on Twitter(1)

It may be close to heretical to suggest this, but maybe the SEC ain’t quite all that this season.  Certainly the advanced stats aren’t as enamored over Georgia’s chances in the bowl game as Vegas is.  The spread in the Fabris Pool pick ’em has the Dawgs as a 6.5-point favorite; Bill’s SP+ has Cincinnati favored by just over a point, while Brian Fremeau’s FEI has Georgia listed as about a half-point favorite.

Something to watch play out, anyway.

20 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

20 responses to “Bill Connelly lacks Kirby Smart’s confidence.

  1. Eyeball test isnt impressed with the SEC this season. 4 teams then you fall off a cliff. and none of those 4 teams has demonstrated a lot of total team.

    Like

  2. Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

    I dunno, I can’t take analytics seriously that thinks the Suckeyes are good based on what they’ve done this year. Or Notre Dame.

    Liked by 6 people

  3. Maybe this is my bias at play, but is there a single Cincinnati player who would start over his Georgia peer? We talk about Jimmies and Joes over Xs and Os.

    I’m guessing our SP+ and FEI ratings still have D’Wan Mathis and SBIV offensive stats included.

    If those guys’ computers were so damn smart, I wouldn’t be publishing my results. I would be using them to look for clear easy money opportunities.

    Bill and Brian, put your money where your algorithm is.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Dylan Dreyer's Booty

      Bringo, ee. This sort of analytics which include data from games played early when teams were trying to figure it out, and also has no way of adjusting for games which were canceled, and combined 9-2 Army being snubbed for a bowl are three examples of why in my mind this season will also have a asterisk as big as my ass attached to it no matter what happens.

      Liked by 2 people

    • ASEF

      The entire reason they built their algorithms were to identify value with the books.

      The books have their own analytics guys and gals, and way more of them. That’s where their spreads come from.

      Connelly’s SP+ does a nice job, and mismatches in between what Bill and Brian’s work is seeing versus Vegas is always an interesting weekly comparison.

      If Jimmy’s and Joe’s were the only variable that mattered, Georgia would have been undefeated heading into the SEC championship the last 3 years.

      Liked by 2 people

      • I’ll trust the Vegas book guys. They have a financial interest in getting as close to right as possible to get the money evenly distributed.

        Jimmies and Joes aren’t the only variable, but on a neutral field, I’ll take the more talented team every time.

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    • MGW

      Boise didn’t have many players who could have started for Georgia in 2011 either. But Cincinnati is not a mirage; they’re a very good team.

      This is a year where the statistical models are probably a good deal less reliable than usual, for sure. But if our players agree with you, we will definitely lose this game.

      Liked by 1 person

      • I have said from the beginning that if we show up and play well, we will win. If we play as we did against West Virginia, we won’t.

        That Boise team would likely beat this Cincinnati team.

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  4. ugafidelis

    I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about the team being overconfident. Especially with all the hungry youngsters looking to impress.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Greg

    All fun & games until ya get hit in the mouth…..I’m thinking 17-21 point ass stomping.

    Just hope they keep talking, ass stomping may get worse.

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  6. Leggo5

    Bill Connelly’s Vegas adjusted Top 7 looks about like my UGA/SEC-biased Top 7.

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  7. TEXBaller

    Never bet against SEC teams in bowl season!

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  8. californiadawg

    Full strength on both sides with JT we demolish them. This comes down to intangibles and motivation. Kirby was able to get the guys ready against Baylor last year when the punditry said we had no chance, and he did the same against Mizzou when some folks were actually predicting an upset. Our offense is playing with a swagger we haven’t seen since 2017. I think we’ll be fine.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Down Island Way

      Health should be good on the UGA sideline…now that the “O” is having fun, the bearcat football team is gonna feel the same result as did their hoops brethren vs UGA…

      Liked by 1 person

  9. 69Dawg

    Will need some player leadership from other than seniors since many of the seniors are opting out of the game. Hopefully our 5* and 4* underclassmen have learned at the feet of the master. I look for a shoot out since defense is a thing of the past.

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  10. MGW

    This is not a “don’t screw it up” game. It’s a tough game we’d best get take seriously.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Lack of OOC games is either a help or a hinderance here — hard to really say. Even as dominant as Bama has looked at times, they gave up 40+ and tons of yards twice, plus 24 points in a half to a Stetson Bennett UGA. They’re damn good on offense but will need to win a shootout against Auburn with a lake.
    I’d bet the over in the OU/UF game too, and hope Lincoln Riley doesn’t embarrass Grantham to the point of getting him fired.

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  12. Don in Mar-a-Lago

    “Bill Connelly lacks Kirby Smart’s confidence.”

    Like

  13. gurkhadawg

    I hope this game means as much to the players as it does to the fans. ( at least this one). If we give them a good ass kicking like we should , I will be super stoked all off season. If we lose or it’s a close win, I won’t be pessimistic about next year, but won’t be penciling in a NC just yet.

    Liked by 1 person