I guess you could say I was half-surprised by this Bill Connelly tweet.
Bottom five on defensive returning production? Sure, I could see that, but where’s Georgia on offense, and why not higher up?
Losing Cleveland and Hill up front is all it takes to fall to ~20th this year.
(Which reminds me: now that I have OL snap counts, it turns out they correlate QUITE strongly with SP+ change, and OL gets proper weight in the ret prod formula now.)https://t.co/0lfGKrdDLN
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) January 31, 2021
Considering where Bill has Clemson ranked in returning defensive production, that’s gonna make for an interesting matchup in Georgia’s opener.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
“... Shoot, why does anybody who’s ever won something do it again? Because it’s cool. So, let’s go do it again. Let’s see if we’ve got what it takes.” -- Stetson Bennett, The Athletic, 3/22/22
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I’ve always made the (apparently false) assumption that offensive production only involved yardage stats (passing, rushing, receiving). I never thought to include stats by offensive linemen.
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So if we lose 4-star OLs like Hill and Cleveland, but we replace them with 5-star OLs like Webb, Jones, or Mims, we’re getting worse? Got it.
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Of course, I realize they’re considering returning contributors. But I’m just pointing out we’re heading in the direction of improving the talent level, not equaling or lowering the talent🤔
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Seems like his is overvaluing OL but I’m not running his numbers. I think Luke will have those 5 stars playing well by next season and then all that returning production will pay off.
BTW, I’m fine with us not being atop the stats for a change. Need to temper the rat poison.
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Looks like a good year to play ND & Ohio St (Note: for the past 15 years, it’s always a good year to play Nebraska).
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The most interesting dynamic to me is how much more the run game can open up at the LOS due to a greater threat of spread passing attack rather than the age old approach of bludgeoning the opposing DL with giant O linemen. Pass protection is the bigger concern for me, but non-OL guys like Cook have a lot to do with that.
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Will someone please give a report on Neman’s performance in the Senior Bowl yesterday? I’m curious but not enough to research it.
Than you.
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Underwhelming. The game speed just ate him up most of the time, but he made some plays.
Would have been a huge leg up on D’Wan and Stetson, though.
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Thank you, sir. (I screwed that up first time)
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I read reviews, and other than continuing to call him the Georgia QB, they said he underwhelmed and likely lost spots in the draft. A few interceptions and a late TD pass. Said he stared down receivers and had obvious rust (which isn’t surprising).
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Think I read 10 – 14, 118 yds, 1TD, 1Int. Rallied for late score. Game so boring I couldn’t watch.
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Thanks FPD. First half bored me to go outside and shoot squirrels. Apparently the second half was more interesting.
I had to cover my fuel line with a reinforced hose on my truck as those busy-tail bastards took to chewing through it.
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Hmm. Gas so yummy
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For those that don’t know, Bill has looked at returning production with position groups and how that correlated with W/L progression/regression over the years with the entirety of college football. It’s pretty interesting.
I’m not a paywall guy, so I haven’t been able to follow his thought process last couple of years, so I have a question for those that do:
He used to rate returning offensive line production as a low correlation, with defensive backfield as the highest correlation and pass catchers as the second highest correlation. I’d say Fromm’s last year, with all new pass catchers, was anecdotal evidence of that correlation.
Has he shifted any on that line of thought? Because the defensive backfield returns very little.
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It looks like he has offensive line snap counts to include that have changed their importance. However, I wonder how much data he has for snap counts. If he only has a year or two, I don’t think it would be very reliable.
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It’s good to see Miami rising in the ACC. That will be a thorn in Clemson’s side and will hurt handbag recruiting.
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Damn Arik to the Gators.
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You can’t completely ignore the TE in the pass game for five straight years and not suffer for it.
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With Pitts leaving it figured.
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Its ok.
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They used Pitts more as a wide receiver. I think that’s how Arik wants to play: body a DB, outrun a LB. Blocking for play action? Not really his thing.
He’s going to love catching a big chunk of Emory’s 42 attempts per game (sarcasm alert)
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