Run, Emory, run.

David Wunderlich takes a look back at how much Dan Mullen let his quarterbacks (before Trask, of course) run, in order to get some idea how often Florida’s presumed 2021 starter will carry the ball.  He found an interesting pattern.

On the other, Mullen has a history of running his mobile quarterbacks a lot initially before backing off later. These rushing attempt figures don’t have sacks taken out because that information isn’t readily available for specific quarterbacks, but the differences in sacks allowed per game for any of the pairs of teams cited is less than one per contest. They’re not enough to change the gaps significantly.

  • Tim Tebow: 16.2 rushing attempts per game in 2007, 12.6 in 2008
  • Chris Relf: 15.0 per game in 2010, 11.2 in 2011
  • Dak Prescott: 16.2 per game in 2014, 12.3 in 2015
  • Nick Fitzgerald: 15.0 per game in 2016, 13.5 per game in 2017

Based on that, David thinks ten carries a game is a likely target for Emory Jones.  Throw in pass attempts and that means about 55% of Florida’s plays on offense would run though Jones.  (That’s actually less than Trask’s 2020 percentage.)  I’d say if the Gators’ o-line isn’t improved, that’s not an improbable percentage.

… And with Jones gaining more than six yards per carry behind suspect offensive lines with a heavy run expectation the last two years, it’d be a strategic blunder not to have him carry the ball quite a bit while he throws far less often than his predecessor.

With five good options at running back, at least seven at receiver, and three or four at tight end, there will be plenty of guys around to help Jones from having to do everything himself. Still, if Mullen’s history as a play caller is any real indication, the nature of the offense he’ll be running means he’ll probably be into the low double digits in rushing attempts per game.

11 Comments

Filed under Gators, Gators..., Strategery And Mechanics

11 responses to “Run, Emory, run.

  1. Biggen

    It’s a sure fire way to get a QB hurt too. Double digit rushing attempts? That’s playing with fire with a true freshman backup.

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  2. If EJ were all that and a bag of chips, doesn’t everyone think Dopey would have turned to him when Franks got hurt instead of Trask?

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  3. In other words, Dan is going back to running the offense that Kirby’s defenses have totally shut down every time they played

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  4. W Cobb Dawg

    “With five good options at running back, at least seven at receiver, and three or four at tight end, there will be plenty of guys around to help Jones from having to do everything himself.”

    Looks like wily ole Dan assembled an all-star team while we were all watching March Madness. No wonder Gilbert changed his mind. Looks like he wouldn’t have seen the field with all that talent ahead of him.

    Frankly, I’d prefer to see Jones running the ball for 4 yards and a cloud of dust, then getting nailed by an LB. Better than seeing Trask spin it for 50.

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  5. MudCat's Mechanic

    He’ll definitely have to run an offense.

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  6. MGW

    He’s a Nick Marshall/Nick Fitzgerald type. You either run his butt off or you move him to another position. Or try to make him something he’s not and you lose more games than you should.

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