Alex, I’ll take Level Playing Fields for $200.

I’m sure the selection committee will take this into account when it matters.

While the AP and the Coaches polls are voted on by a group of subjective experts (they’re only human after all) the oddsmakers in Vegas put their money where their mouths are.

It may be the most realistic way to gauge which teams are poised to make a run.

Vegas’ latest odds to win the 2021-22 CFP National Championship form a predictable Top 10: 1. Alabama (+280), 2. Clemson (+300), 3. Ohio State (+500), T4. Georgia and Oklahoma (+800), 6. Florida (+2500), 7. Texas A&M (+3000), T8. LSU and Notre Dame (+3300), T10. Texas and Wisconsin (+4500).

Using this metric and still four months from the season even kicking off, there are nine Top 10 matchups on tap in 2021. Of these, a whopping six (or 66%) are SEC games. What remains are a mere two non-conference contests and one Big 12 matchup.

Alabama, Florida, and LSU are all tasked with three Top Ten opponents apiece while Georgia and Texas A&M have two such games. The only member of Vegas’ Top Ten to not have a Top Ten foe slated is Ohio State.

That seems competitive.


Filed under What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

7 responses to “Alex, I’ll take Level Playing Fields for $200.

  1. originaluglydawg

    Doesn’t Vegas constantly tweak the odds according to which way the betting is going? (I miss Macallan…he was good at ‘splaining this stuff).
    If so, it’s natural that people are going to bet on the schools that have won it all and have been dominate.
    There are a lot of people that will place bets solely on the name and the near recent past.
    I’m guessing that Georgia is well under the radar and a good bet.
    And Oklahoma is going to be an offensive nightmare for opponents.

    Liked by 2 people

    • I was wondering the other day where Macallan and Scorpio had gone.

      Yes, the odds change as the money comes in. If you and a lot of money get in at 8 to 1, the oddsmakers make it more expensive for the next bettor to get the same payout by reducing the odds to 5 to 1 for example. The flip side is true. If they aren’t getting money on a particular team, they may decide to enhance odds for that particular team by moving said odds to 10 to 1. It’s really a probability weighted average problem. They want to bring in enough money on the bet to cover the eventual payout to the winners and provide for a nice margin to the house. As they say, “those big casinos weren’t built with money of winners.”

      Liked by 1 person

    • Exactly, original ugly! This is why Vegas’ odds are a terrible way to rank teams vis-a-vis the Coaches Poll or the AP. Vegas doesn’t predict wins and losses and spreads, it predicts gambling behavior. Which can be even more arbitrary than “subjective polls.” Vegas is only putting its money where its mouth is as it relates to its expectation of how regular joes and professional gamblers will place their bets. It amazes me how few people understand that. Vegas gambles on gambling. It’s like the Inception of gambling.


  2. stoopnagle

    It’s the ninth conference game that makes all the difference. eyes roll roll roll

    Liked by 1 person

  3. JoeDashDawg

    And Clemson only has one by way of playing UGA. I’ve said for years that FSU is the best available job out there if someone with any competence can get them rolling again. I mean the 2nd best team is… what UNC? Miami? Methinks that some of those FSU boosters that wanted to give Jimbo the boot are feeling pretty silly right now.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. ericstrattonrushchairmandamngladtomeetyou

    Alex, I’ll take Justin Fields for $40,000,000.