TFW defense isn’t an afterthought

ESPN’s future power rankings return with a look at the 25 best defenses over the next three seasons: 2021, 2022 and 2023.

Last year’s rankings had Georgia first and Clemson second.  This year, that order is reversed.  Both teams look similarly built on that side of the ball:  loaded and deep front seven, with some questions in the secondary.  (Of course, that’s somewhat relative, as both programs have recruited well.)  With regard to the latter, will the transfer portal have an impact for either before August?

For all the talk about quarterbacks and offense taking over the sport, are we giving the prospect of two very good defenses facing off in the season opener enough weight?  Is it realistic to think that the first team to thirty wins?



Filed under Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, Georgia Football

11 responses to “TFW defense isn’t an afterthought

  1. I absolutely think the first team to 30 likely does win. Have any of the stat gurus done an analysis of that particular statistic when ranked teams play (even it’s just in the offensive era)? There has to be a high correlation between getting to 30 first and win probability.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Down Island Way

      Given klempsens ability to score and the UGA football’s “OC” ability to open the field, 35-30 final score wouldn’t surprise and the HC’s will say their defenses played a helluva game…


    • kokainmothershed

      The NBA (back in the 90’s when I last watched regularly) used to tout the amazingly high winning probability for the team that first reaches 100 in a game. Logic dictates that over a large sample size the first to achieve any particular point value has a higher probability of victory, and the higher that critical point threshold, the higher that winning probability would be (i.e. the first to reach 30 should have a higher demonstrated winning percentage that the first to reach 10). Though I’ll forever celebrate the fact that the first team to reach 10, 20, 30, & 40 points did NOT win the 2018 Rose Bowl!!!

      Liked by 2 people

      • Exactly. I just was wondering if any of the stat gurus had done the analysis in particular on games with ranked teams. In particular, what’s the point threshold that would push the win probability over the 80% likelihood mark?

        The Rose Bowl was definitely a statistical outlier, and I enjoyed the last 30+ minutes of it … the first 29 minutes and change? Not so much. 😉

        Liked by 1 person

  2. TN Dawg

    Statistically speaking, I imagine the first team to 30 almost always wins.


  3. BuffaloSpringfield

    Reading previous content, game spread and returning DL for klemson. No one has brought up the fact or rumor perhaps that klempson’s DC has the best game plans when his GA’s breaks down all the game film of the opposition’s OC’s signals. The osu did not allow that to happen.
    In the Sugar Bowl the osu gained 8.9 yds. per play, had 639 yds on offense which included 5 drives of 75 yds for scores against the tigers.
    Here’s to date that CKS has the same plan in mind. Klempson’s defense was hardly ever set throughout the game, including instances where their DL were not even in their stances before the ball was snapped.
    Anderson Junior Cow College SUCKS.

    Liked by 1 person