Came across this chart that ranked D-1 teams by their passing plays percentage last season. At 46.37%, Georgia finished 67th. Now, before you say, “hell, with the quarterback play they had in the first eight games, I’da run it, too”, note that the percentage was even lower over the last three games (43.90%). And that was with them throwing a ton in the bowl game, which ought to give you an idea of how dominant the run game was against South Carolina and Missouri.
Anyway, when the dust settled, Monken only raised the overall percentage a tick from what it was under Foley Coley in 2019 (45.70%), albeit it with better overall results. Which leads to today’s question: where do you expect Georgia’s passing plays percentage to be at the end of the 2021 season?
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I just want our backup quarterback to throw the ball in quarter 4 of blowouts, instead of TB4 padding his rushing attempt totals.
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I think it might be similar still. Maybe a slight tick up. I envision A LOT of 8 minute clock killing inside zone heavy 4th quarters.
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I don’t care as long as they score 40+ a game because that’s what it takes for a realistic shot at a national championship in today’s game.
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I demand forty against the MFs in the first quarter.
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Foley? I don’t remember him
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Thanks for catching.
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Couldn’t Foley just be a contraction for F-ing Coley?
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Senator, I think we officially have a new lexicon entry
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second
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Foley was busy solving the Alphabet Crimes, silly.
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Well, based on his record as an OC, he should be living in a van down by the river.
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More like IN the van submerged in the river
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Previous UGA oc working undercover, now in the relocation program…
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If we don’t throw the ball between 55-60% of the time, we won’t win the SEC, make the playoff, or win a National Title.
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Alabama’s passing plays percentage last season was 48.26%.
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Don’t confuse a narrative with facts, Senator.
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It’s not about narrative… as I explain below, I’m just tired of how we run the ball.
Maybe if we ran the ball smarter, I wouldn’t be, but there you are.
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And I read that LSU’s in 2019 was right at 55%.
But you’re right, if you go back and look at Clemson in 2018 and 2016, and some of the other teams in the last ten years, the magic number seems to be between 50-55%, and not quite as extreme as I had it.
I guess I’m just tired of seeing us run the ball right up the middle into loaded boxes for negligible gains. I’d rather pass in those situations.
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Clemson’s percentage when it won the 2018-9 natty was 47.85%.
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It’s about taking what teams give you, and I agree there have been times (like the Miss State game last year) where you have to throw to set up the run. There are also times when you have to line up and block the guy in front of you regardless of how many are in the box.
For all of the teeth gnashing about Mike Bobo, he figured it out later in his time at UGA.
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If you’re trying to run against a stacked box because you think you have no choice, you’ve already lost.
That’s the idiot thinking that helped lose us a national title.
You had the first part right. Take what the defense gives you. But it’s also helpful to be more varied in your run game, and if you do want to run, it’s also helpful to employ a lead blocker every once in awhile.
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An incomplete pass stops the clock. It’s free timeout to the defense. The question is when do you start to manage the game around the clock.
If you can knock the other guy off the ball, there is no reason to throw. The problem in the national championship game was we started that too soon.
No one has a fullback on scholarship any more. Tight ends who are H-backs play that role now.
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Having a FB would be one of the few things that would make it possible to do what you are saying you want to do here. TE’s who sometimes play HB aren’t the same, no matter how much Kirby says they are.
So we have an issue not only with philosophy, including recruiting philosophy, that runs counter to reality.
You wanna be someone who milks the clock? Have a FB on the team and get in the I-formation.
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Everyone knows this will never work:
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Given how the offense looked once JT took over, I don’t really care how many times we throw the ball, and I suspect Monken doesn’t either. He now has the tools to take whatever the defense gives us.
That said, I do hope we pass enough against some of the weaker teams on our schedule so when we have to do it, we’re comfortable doing it.
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I want us to be competent at both and willing to do either until it’s clearly time to milk the clock and move on.
Make DCs pick their poison and stuff that poison down their throats.
As Charlotte said, do whatever it takes to get to 40+ because we’re unbeaten in the Smart era when we reach 40 (and have only lost 1 game when we hit 30).
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Please define “clearly time to milk the clock,” because the way CFB passing offenses work and the rules that support them to the detriment of the defense, “clearly time to milk the clock” is a dangerous sentiment.
I’d rather keep letting the offense do what it’s designed to do and keep trying to score points. Only way to know for sure. All gas, no brakes.
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When you are up by 3 scores with 7:30 or less to play, you use the clock as your 12th man. If you get one first down per possession in that scenario, you are going to win because the clock rules (especially the 40-second clock) make it really difficult on the losing team. They eventually have to use their timeouts on defense. That’s my measurement.
It really depends on the quality of opponent you play and how well is your defense playing (and how well rested are they).
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Thinking like that is what gets you into trouble in today’s football against the great teams or even against the teams that go for broke.
Being up 17 points against Bama with 7:30 left in the game is not time to milk the clock. Same with Clemson. Same even with a team like Ole Miss.
When you try to run the clock and force the run when it isn’t there, you’re going to run right into a three and out, multiple times. And then your 17 point lead is down to 3 with about 3:00 on the clock and now you’re scrambling because you turtled your offense and you don’t have the edge anymore so you try passing, but it doesn’t work because your guys are used to passing in late game situations and you have to punt.
Milking the clock is loser’s football unless you’re inside of four minutes and already in field goal range to give yourself extra cushion.
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Eventually your defense has to make a play to stop or slow down the other side. If you take this approach and prevent the big play, you make the offense drive the length of the field.
Did you read my whole comment? A head coach is paid to make those calls. Generally, with half a quarter left, you can slow the game down whether that’s with the run game or short passing (ball control). You have to get first downs, but that’s also not the time to attack down the field.
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I’ve seen the milking the clock strategy bite us in the ass under Kirby.
And not just in games we lost, but even in some we won.
Here’s the thing, you can’t expect your defense to make the kind of late game stops you’re talking about, not when all the rules favor the offense. So you have to let your offense do it’s thing and keep trying to score.
I’m not saying no lead is safe, but man, we’re at the point in CFB where almost no lead is safe.
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14 losses in 5 years – in 13 of them, we didn’t score 30 points. 4 of those losses included blowing a 2nd half lead (3 to Bama and 1 to … wait for it … Georgia Tech). In every one of those games, our defense gave up big plays in the 2nd half and we turned the ball over on offense.
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What you have to do is understand that in today’s football, “milking the clock” at any point before you get to under 4 minutes is going to provide the other’s team’s offense with more chances to score.
And when a team like Ole Miss can score from anywhere on the field in less than 30 seconds, your playing not to lose will result in losses because you decided to stop your offense.
Just play your offense. If you’re inside of 4 minutes up 14 points and within FG range, okay, now it’s time to milk the clock. Doing so before then is suicide.
Why stop your own offense from scoring? Make the other team stop you. Don’t do their job for them.
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You’re stuck on “milking the clock” … maybe a better term would be to use the clock as a 12th man. When a coach decides to do that is different based on the score, the team you’re playing, your defensive talent, there is no perfect solution that works every time.
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Okay, that’s a better point, and if that’s the point you were making than I stand corrected.
I will say though, at this point, until he shows us he can make better choices, I don’t really trust Kirby in those situations. Do you?
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I do, but I would also say we shouldn’t start even thinking about using the clock as a 12th man until you cross the 30 point mark where we have lost 1 game in 5 years and that took 2 Hail Marys to get to the final result.
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Please see below as to why I can’t trust Kirby in those situations.
At this point, I’m very much in a “show me” situation. I’m done with “tell me.” Been burned way too many times.
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With the introduction of the RPO, giving more decision making mid-play to the QB of whether to throw or run it, it really just change the game in terms of these percentages.
Regardless of what Monken might want in a certain play, if it is an RPO, JTD is going to do what he’s going to do. Unless Monken pulls that from the playbook, he can only do so much in finding the balance he wants. And that’s a good thing! If he wants to throw more in a certain situation, but the defense is dropping back, then our workhorse running backs have more room to run. If he wants to go with some body blows early, but the defense puts the secondary on an island to stop the run, then we better hope to see some balls over the top for quick scores.
Either way, as Monken keeps telling us, the offense is going to focus on where the defense isn’t and with the skill players we have on offense, there isn’t an area that we can’t exploit one on one coverage.
If the offensive line gets it together, we’re going to see UGA 2014 level of scoring this year and it’s going to be a really fun season.
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That makes a lot of sense.
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Just give me the stats up until there is a 20+ point spread in the score. 4thQ subs are going to run the ball. I’d expect our mix in the first half or through the 3rdQ to be nearly 50/50 and won’t be surprised to see pass plays rate slightly above since screens and shuttle pass jet sweeps count as passing plays. What I don’t expect to see is a straight pounding by Zeus and Milton to start games unless someone is bizarrely playing a deep zone dime package the whole game just to force us to shorten the game and lower the score.
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I care less about the percentages of pass plays and more about the efficiency and explosiveness of the passing plays. I’d like us to throw the ball around 30 times a game, give or take. But what I really want is 9.5+ YPA and a 3:1 TD:INT ratio.
2020 passing leaders:
Mac Jones: 30.9 attempts per game
Matt Corral: 32.6
Justin Fields: 28.1
Spencer Rattler 28.8
Trevor Lawrence: 33.8
Zach Wilson: 28.0
I don’t think throwing it 35+ times a game is a good thing.
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I don’t expect a wild departure in terms of run/pass percentage. But went into my spreadsheet
2019 UGA 7.1 YPA and 46% success rate.
2020 UGA 8.0 YPA and 40% success rate.
I expect that 2021 success rate to go up, but also tells me that Monken and the offense will be throwing the ball deeper with higher explosiveness
I won’t bore you with the EPA (it’s the same for both seasons)
But on the successful plays (how the nerds define explosiveness)
2019 1.596 EPA 15.1 YPC
2020 1.959 EPA 18.7 YPC
2020 JT Stats
Explosive Plays 2.105 EPA 20.7 YPC
All Plays 10.0 YPPP 46% Success Rate
that is pornographic
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50/50, you know, balanced.
Seriously, I think it will be a few points higher than in seasons past, if for no other reason than more screens, shuffles and swing passes to the backs to get them in space.
Not to mention the fact that Monken has clearly indicated he plans on using the tight ends more in the passing game. /s
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Just win the damn games. I don’t care if we play like an Area football team as long as we win the game.
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SEC Shorts does it again. This is pretty much exactly how I feel, so I can’t even be mad.
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The key is early downs…..some numbers in here —
https://uga.rivals.com/news/the-final-steps-needed-for-georgia-s-offense-to-be-elite
And also this….
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Run it, throw it, bunny hop it, skip it, I don’t give a shit if they are moving it (and getting points). Take what the defense gives you and don’t try to keep doing the same thing over and over IF it is failing. By the same token, like the SC or Missouri games where they SUCCESSFULLY ran it down their throats, if they never throw it once I’ll be fine. Flip the script and against Miss. State, sling it all over the field and never run it worked out just fine. Crush the ones we are supposed to crush so the backups can get significant playing time (and let them play not just run out the clock). Win the tough games by 1 or 100, but win. Not asking a lot.
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55 Pass-45 Run. Kirby will pass to get the lead and run to preserve it. IMO.
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Depends on the strengths and weaknesses of the defenses we play. But probably a little closer to 50% just because of the talent we have there, but we aren’t lacking talent at RB either so who knows.
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