NCAAF Strength-of-Schedule Rankings

Interesting find I came across at Roll Bama Roll.

According to a proprietary strength-of-schedule formula developed by the odds-makers at www.SportsBettingDime.com, Arkansas, Kansas and Auburn have college football’s three toughest schedules, while the UTEP, Hawaii and Charlotte have the three easiest among the 130 Division 1 schools.

The @SBD Strength of Schedule formula is based upon opponents’ efficiency ratings from last season minus the production lost from the 2020 team; recruiting rankings; major transfers added and lost. The formula is then adjusted for each game based upon home and road games. As a point of reference, the toughest possible schedule would score 397.09, making Arkansas’ S.O.S (126.35) 31.82% of the hardest possible schedule. The easiest hypothetical schedule would score -471.94 making UTEP’s S.O.S (171.68) 36.38% of the easiest schedule.

Here’s how the SEC, in particular, shapes up.

Poor Sam Pittman.  Man can’t buy a break.

I presume since the transfer portal plays into the calculations that there could still be some adjustments, although I wouldn’t expect those to be significant at this point.  It probably wouldn’t hurt to keep some of this stuff in the back of your head when you try to anticipate the way the season plays out.  For example,

You can also see where inexperience could derail potentially promising seasons from teams like Texas (SOS 4) and Iowa (12); or hurt chances of continued success (Florida at 12, Ole Miss at 10 and Arkansas at 1); or prevent an easy rebound year for squads like Michigan (13) and LSU (18).

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UPDATE:  Also to consider, there’s the effect of…

… dismissals.

24 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

24 responses to “NCAAF Strength-of-Schedule Rankings

  1. Hogbody Spradlin

    Woo Pig Sooie!

    Like

    • spur21

      Wonder if Sam looked at the schedule before saying “I Do” ?

      Liked by 1 person

      • PTC DAWG

        He looked at the zeros on the contract…. 🙂

        Liked by 2 people

        • Down Island Way

          “Poor Sam Pittman. Man can’t buy a break”….Not buying that line Senator, when you go to the head of the line, it’s on you…all of it, I get wanting to stick your toe in the water$, he’s been around long enough to know whether he is a HC or a position coach, will he get another HC offer in the sec when he is shown the door at arky in 3-5 years…(or less)

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  2. Greg

    The SOS rankings kinda remind me of the preseason polls, a constant readjustment……no way to know until the end of the year.

    But I guess we have to talk about something, the beauty of college football.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Teacher Martin

    UGA still has a tougher schedule than Bama. Bama makes their schedule so they can win National Championships.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Greg

      Explain (tougher)…..

      Like

    • miltondawg

      Bama does the same thing as several other teams (like Georgia). The difference between Bama and Georgia is that this year Miami pales in comparison to Clemson. And Bama’s in-state rival is also a conference game unlike Georgia’s so we get (in theory) a bump due to two of our four OOC games being against P5 opponents whereas Bama can play the kickoff game and then play three cupcakes OOC.

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    • JaxDawg

      So an easier schedule would have been the difference is winning nattys in 2007, 2012, and 2017?

      Like

    • stoopnagle

      Well, they do duck playing Alabama…

      Like

  4. Tony BarnFart

    You always have to factor in the “Bama ain’t gotta play Bama, Pawwwl.” Any time Alabama and Georgia don’t play each other, their rankings will suffer.

    Any criticism from within the conference is the equivalent of the old “he who points a finger has 3 pointing back at him.” Sorry so many of you suck right now and are hurting our strength of schedule.

    Liked by 2 people

    • otto1980

      Some truth. NonConf between Bama, Auburn, and Arky is a toss up. Bama plays Miami, Auburn goes to Penn St, and Arky gets Texas at home. Bama doesn’t play UGA and Bama doesn’t play Bama. Auburn and Arky get both Bama and UGA.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. 69Dawg

    I can gain from this that Vandy can potentially have a better record than the UT Dumpster Fires. I love it.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. PTC DAWG

    What makes UF’s schedule so tough? Wouldn’t Clemson cancel out LSU? FSU sucks as bad as GT.

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  7. Biggen

    UT: The Dumpster fire that never goes out.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. practicaldawg

    And yet the pundits still see 6 wins for Tenn. The SECe is starting to look like a mini-ACC.

    Like

  9. wallybuttsin

    I hate preseason polls. I wish there were no rankings until 4 games into the season. I think early rankings are often used to try to create interest to help advertising/tv revenues. The formula referred to here seems much more thorough and objective than anything I have seen for preseason polls (though I could have easily overlooked good info on preseason polls just because I tend to ignore them). In spite of good research, all those estimations won’t tell you if a 5* will end up as a bust, or if your line won’t gel until the end of the season…

    Liked by 1 person

  10. I haven’t had the opportunity to post this in a while in response to the Knoxville dumpster fire:

    Liked by 2 people

  11. Ummm…if a higher score means a tougher schedule, and Arkansas is rated the toughest with a 126.35, then how is UTEP one of the easiest with a score of 171.68??? Maybe that is a negative 171.68?

    Like