Another 2020 stat

Matt Melton breaks down the SEC’s 2020 season by a metric of his creation, first half points differential, which he defines as follows:

It is the number of points by which a team outscores its opponent in the first half of a game. The theory behind using it being that consistently relying on second half comebacks is not a good long term strategy and can potentially help us identify regression candidates. Similarly, teams that rack up solid first half differentials, but ultimately wind up losing more game than we might expect actually have the bones of a solid team and might be a good candidate to bounce back the next season.

Now, with the understanding that 2020 was the mother of all statistical outliers in mind, here’s the SEC’s picture:

My goodness, Alabama.  That’s obscene.  The combined total for the other five teams with positive differentials is +21.9.

Take the numbers as seriously as you choose.  That being said, this seems like a fine epitaph for Jeremy Pruitt’s finale in Knoxville:

… Finally, in a shocking turn of events, Tennessee was actually kind of mediocre in 2020 instead of plain bad. The Vols were winning or tied at the half in six of their ten conference games, but lost half of them (which includes blowing a double digit lead against Arkansas) to finish 3-7.

He’ll be missed.


Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

13 responses to “Another 2020 stat

  1. Not buying that theory.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Greg



    • gastr1

      I can think of quite a few counterpoints to this theory…right here out of my ***, even. (Tennessee’s “success” itself demonstrates a couple of them.)

      Liked by 2 people

      • Dylan Dreyer's Booty

        I looked at that paragraph about Tennessee and thought: that is one stupid theory, and you just proved it. Nice work, Matt.

        Also, this why we need fall practice to start and to be successful. Get those shots, guys, if you haven’t already done so.

        Liked by 2 people

  2. Gaskilldawg

    Were we the only team with a halftime lead on Alabama last season? If so, Alabama’s average halftime lead would have been even more amazing.


  3. Anon

    Fuck Vandy with that 7-2 bullcrap

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Welp, 1 more month to go and we’re out of talkin season…9/4 can’t get here fast enough…go Dawgs

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Down Island Way

    Pruitt will be sorely missed, you can’t have a pure, flame throwing, land in the dark dumpster fire, without a big urnge cuntry bumpkin leading the way….

    Liked by 1 person

  6. 69Dawg

    Using that set of stats from last year is about like pulling a ranking out of your butt.

    Liked by 1 person

    • mg4life0331

      I referred to Mr Conventional Wisdom for such jewels. He says whoever scores the most in all their games will go undefeated.


  7. originaluglydawg

    Here’s a stat that’s 100 percent accurate and verifiable.
    Every team in the SEC that had a late game shoe throwing penalty against them lost, at home, and to a team they were highly favored to beat.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. If you never change your players or the coaches, this approach might start to hold water. But, seeing as how teams seem to change a bit from year to year, this metric is likely useless.