Why I YPP

Here’s a good question:

The last 3 national title winners averaged ~46 ppg and each were among the top 5 in YPP.

So, what’s the number Georgia needs to truly become a title contender? I don’t think it can touch Bama/LSU’s 48+ ppg. But can it get to 42? Is 7.4 YPP (or better) realistic? @Dawg_Stats?

— Parrish Walton (@ParrishWalton) August 5, 2021

And here’s Josh’s response.

YPP Data for 18-20 for @ParrishWalton (P5 + ND) https://t.co/s2YPR4mi34 pic.twitter.com/9xx4XtWIAk

— DawgStats (@Dawg_Stats) August 5, 2021

As a general rule of thumb based on the last four seasons, you’d better create a net YPP of 2+ if you want a realistic shot at the CFP (the four-team version, that is).  And if you want to win, you’d better wind up north of 2.5.  It doesn’t matter how you get there — track Alabama’s numbers over those four years, for example — just that you do get there.

This is why I like net YPP best, when it comes to advanced stats.  It may not be perfect, but it’s relatively easy to understand and it’s a good judge of a team’s overall quality.

Realistically speaking, then, Georgia probably has to bump its offensive YPP up a full yard over the 2020 number to make the CFP field this season, assuming it can maintain its defensive excellence.  Is that doable?  Well, put it this way:  a 7.21 ypp would be the best in the program’s history.  That is the world Kirby Smart now coaches in.

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