Three betting takes on the opener

Pat Forde:

Clemson vs. Georgia (21). When: Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET. Where: Charlotte. Line: Clemson by three. How big is it: With the No. 3 and No. 5 teams in the AP poll, this is the highest-ranked opener since No. 1 Alabama beat No. 3 Florida State in 2017. That game turned out to be a bit of a dud, and the Seminoles’ season was doomed after a late injury to quarterback Deondre Francois. Let’s hope for better this time.

The overreaction if Clemson wins: Kirby Smart still can’t win the big one. He’s just a recruiter who is slightly better than Mark Richt but will never be Vince Dooley.

The overreaction if Georgia wins: Clemson’s run is done. Opponents have figured out the defensive signal stealing and it’s over.

Reality: Barring a 40–0 result, the loser of this game sustains no irreversible damage. The winner can start dreaming College Football Playoff dreams.

Stat: Dabo Swinney is 11–1 in season openers, with his only loss to Georgia. Smart is 5–0.

Matchup: How does Clemson’s good-not-great offensive line fare against a Georgia front seven that features half a dozen NFL prospects?

Dash pick: Georgia 24, Clemson 21.

If I recall correctly, the over/under is in the fifties, so Forde is really sold on both team’s defenses.

Adam Kramer:

But if I were a Georgia fan and not just a gambler sitting on an array of Bulldogs future tickets — and I’ll get to those — I would feel good about this team. Not overly confident. Good. History says feeling any other emotion might be unwise.

Now, things aren’t perfect. The injury bug has already impacted Georgia at tight end (Darnell Washington) and defensive back (Tykee Smith). Arik Gilbert, the team’s star offseason acquisition, is also currently not with the team for personal reasons.

These issues are real, but elite teams can overcome these types of issues. And to me, Georgia is not only an elite team but the best team in college football.

I bet Georgia to win the national title. The Bulldogs are currently + 700. I bet them to win the SEC (currently + 200). I have them over 10.5 (currently -130). And I have J.T. Daniels to win the Heisman (currently 12-1).

And yes, I like Georgia (+ 3) against Clemson this week in what could wind up being the best game of the college football season.

The talent across both sides of the ball at seemingly every position is spectacular. And while quarterback has always been a mixed bag, JT Daniels has the gifts to change that.

The narrative, of course, says otherwise. Unfair or not, Georgia has long been regarded as a resource-rich team incapable of conquering the sport despite so many advantages and close calls. Given the historic and absurd run of Alabama in the same conference, that feels a bit unfair.

From his lips…

And, finally, from The Athletic’s Austin Mock ($$):

Georgia under 10.5 +105 (projected for 9.9 wins)

Georgia opens up with the equivalent of a playoff game against Clemson where they’re an underdog, so 0-1 isn’t far-fetched. The offense did start to click when J.T. Daniels was inserted as the starter, but I’m not sure the opponents were of the quality where I’m giving the Georgia offense the benefit of the doubt. Add in Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs always dropping a game they have no business losing, and you can understand why Georgia under 10.5 at plus money has value.

And there’s your turd in the punch bowl.



Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

38 responses to “Three betting takes on the opener

  1. ApalachDawg aux Bruxelles

    My favorite stat that i have read all offseason…
    “Stat: Dabo Swinney is 11–1 in season openers, with his only loss to Georgia.”

    Liked by 9 people

  2. mwodieseldawg

    But which will Desmond Howard pick? I bet anyone here a soda that Corso puts on the tiger head. And that is fine by me.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. D as in Dawg

    I hate myself for being a turd.


  4. Fair assessments all around…personally (admittedly I’m a homer) but given this is the first game and with a lot of hype, I think our defense comes out ampted up and is super aggressive, which should be a good thing…I’m hoping Ukulele’s jersey gets super dirty, and we dominate the line of scrimmage…Go Dawgs

    Liked by 4 people

  5. Hogbody Spradlin

    Does that turd float?

    Liked by 1 person

  6. theotherdoug

    Yeah, I’m a homer, but I think uga wins.

    Clemson’s OL is vulnerable, they can’t risk their QB, and they don’t have a running game.

    Their DL is great but the rest of the defense is just OK to good. UGA goes around and over the the DL while keeping Venerable from stealing signs.

    Liked by 3 people

  7. gotthepicture

    It would be interesting to see the success rate of those 3 guys making the pick. I mean, if they hit at 37% then who cares what they pick.


  8. uga97

    Here’s hoping JT doesn’t have a “sophomore slump”. Here’s hoping our weapons show up on the national stage. Here’s hoping Zeus has found his full gears. Here’s hoping our coaches aren’t afraid to run a few trick plays. Here’s hope.

    Liked by 3 people

    • dawg100

      His Soph slump, he did it all the way and got hurt! This is is true Sr. year, so he’s ready to lead.

      Liked by 3 people

      • uga97

        He’s halfway through a 2nd year of live game experience. Maturity-wise & between the ears-wise, he’s an NFL calibre QB…but he still just hasn’t gone though a slate of toughest Defenses yet. No doubt he will get there but the Dline wall crashing on him in the 4th Quarter is going to be the biggest test of his life to date.


    • rugbydawg79

      I am expecting Zeus to have all his gears. Now two years removed from surgery.

      Liked by 4 people

  9. Tony BarnFart

    What’s the deal with the sign stealing ?

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Ran A

    Kramer’s last paragraph makes me a fan all in itself.


  11. gotthepicture

    BTW, the Dawgs are 4-0 in games against Clemson that I attend, so if anyone wants to donate to me attending let me know.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Ran A

    Honestly… I think we are going to be able to run the ball on these guys and that will be the difference in the game. Clemson is going to have to throw really well – really well to win.

    And they are going to get hit like they have ever been hit in their life. The QB and that freshmen RB are going t get lit up – will be interesting to see hw they react after getting popped a few times.

    Liked by 4 people

  13. dawg100


    No one for some reason is talking running games. I just have a feeling that Zeus, with another FULL year of rehab, Cook, Milton and Macintosh are all a year older and ready.

    I think that is the un-discussed key to the game.

    Liked by 8 people

    • bmacdawg87

      I don’t think that its a given that we’re going to be able to run it. We couldn’t run it at all against Miss St. or Cincy last year. I think we’re going to have to hit a couple shots early to open up some running lanes.

      Liked by 1 person

      • stoopnagle

        Clemson is the best DL we’ve faced with JT at QB. They will do what every other team does and that’s load up to stop the run. And now, there’s no Pickens to draw attention away from others. I can’t even keep up with which receivers are actually ready for this game, but I know our best one isn’t.

        Liked by 1 person

        • miltondawg

          Don’t know if Darnell will be ready or not (let’s hope). But Monken needs to get the TEs going early and often. Clemson’s last three losses to LSU, ND, and Ohio State saw the opponent’s TEs have big games. Especially if Clemson decides to take away the run and gives up the short to intermediate stuff in the middle.

          Liked by 2 people

      • PTC DAWG

        I throw the Cincy game out..y’all keep harping on it, but I don’t see it. Actually all of last year was f’ed up….


    • californiadawg

      Also no one is really talking about how our RBs can actually catch the ball. Wouldn’t be surprised If James Cook leads the team in receptions.

      Liked by 3 people

  14. bcdawg97

    Turd that it may be, takes like Mock’s will continue until we win it all. Period. And that’s not Munsoning (which I really like to do). But in a game that we have ZERO control over beyond our own happiness, Kirby’s got us knocking on the door which is all you can really ask for. He’s elevated the program which is cause for optimism. But it’s funny – even the pundits know what it’s like to be a UGA fan – Lucy, Ol’ Lady Luck and now Hope. I hope sooner, rather than later, but whenever it is, I can’t wait for the year we finally kick the ball, shove the bitch down the stairs and don’t need the pepper spray. Go Dawgs!!

    Liked by 4 people

  15. gurkhadawg

    My thoughts? Fuck Austin Mock.

    Liked by 3 people

  16. I’m waiting for Tony B. to drop his deep insights before I place my bets.


  17. Dylan Dreyer's Booty

    These are betting guys and they have their reasons for making bets. But one thing that they are not saying – and which I think could be crucial – is where are refs coming from?
    I think Austin Mock knows something about this, but is being cagey by not telling.


  18. The only thing I have confidence on Saturday is that my brisket will turn out delicious. I don’t have a clue about the rest. I have not felt so absolutely 50/50 over game since the national title in 2017.