BASHed

What is BASH?  This is BASH.

As Saban goes for his seventh national and eighth SEC title at Alabama, it is worth asking: Which other SEC teams have felt the Tide’s wrath most acutely since the head man took over? And which have managed to get by with the least Bama-related damage? If you asked five SEC fans, you might get five different answers to each question, and all five would sound reasonable enough. So, let’s try to quantify Bama’s effect on each team with a new metric created just for that purpose: Beaten At Saban’s Hands, or BASH. The lower the BASH score, the lower a school’s fortunes have sunk while living in Saban’s world.

BASH has two components: win/loss records and average recruiting ranking. The first is a team’s net record against Saban: wins minus losses. A win or loss in the SEC Championship Game is worth an additional 3 points in either direction, while a result in a BCS or College Football Playoff game is worth an extra 5. (As it happens, the latter are all losses for Bama’s SEC opponents. Go figure.) If a team is 0-14 against Saban with all regular-season losses, it loses 14 points in this area of BASH. The second element is the difference between a school’s average recruiting ranking in the SEC from 2002 to 2006, the five years before Saban’s arrival, and 2007 to 2021. So, if a team averaged the SEC’s No. 2 signing class from ’02 to ’06 and dropped to No. 6 from ’07 to ’21, it loses 4 BASH points.

Thanks, Gators.

Seriously, this is the statistical rebuttal to all the “if not now, when” crap thrown Georgia’s way.  Over the past decade, the difference between this program and the ones who make the BCS/CFP is that Georgia plays Alabama before they do.  That doesn’t mean Georgia has a hump to get over; clearly it does.  But it’s also clear that Saban has had an oversized impact on Georgia’s playoff record (or, more accurately, it’s lack of one).

By the way, on a totally unrelated point, does anyone seriously think Bryan Harsin is going to match Malzahn’s track record against Saban?  Money well spent, Aubie.

21 Comments

Filed under Nick Saban Rules

21 responses to “BASHed

  1. Remember the Quincy

    The school who, you’d think, stood to lose the most with Sagan’s hiring actually fared better against him than any other SEC school. That’s a pretty amazing accomplishment.

    And I’ll wait to see how Hardin does before passing judgment. I have a feeling he might end up being a much better hire than Fish Lips Malzhan.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. The SEC will continue to have the Bama problem, but 2 things offer hope. 1. Cfp potential expansion 2. Conference expansion w TX and OK…if we go to a pod system or whatever, once the conference expands we’re picking up more conference games…injuries pile up typically by season’s end and probably will be more exacerbated by playing more SEC teams…this could level the playing field by the time the SEC championship rolls around (maybe a little parity)…obviously that sword can cut both ways and could just as easily be a detriment…the expanded cfp for us is a no brainer

    Liked by 1 person

  3. 79dawg

    Pretty sure I made exactly this point on another thread this week, but obvs without the statistical backup.
    Odds this tamps down on the “least with most”-type articles? About the same as the Senator’s GPA!

    Like

  4. paulwesterdawg

    Since 2007, only 1 team has won the national title without beating Bama or BEING Bama. And that is FSU. That’s the real stat.

    Liked by 7 people

  5. dawgphan34

    I think the system might need some tweaking.

    Like

  6. Granthams Replacement

    I’ll take “playing with numbers for a useless reason, Alex”.

    Liked by 4 people

  7. Scotty King

    To win it all, we could play both Bama and Clemson twice, or face the all of the Big 4. Now that would be earning it.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Russ

      Yeah, there’s a real chance we have to play both Bama and Clemson twice each. If we win it all after that, we will have earned it for sure.

      Liked by 1 person

      • ericstrattonrushchairmandamngladtomeetyou

        ^^This. In order to win the natty we have to win all four games or at minimum 3 out of the four if the loss falls at the right time.

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  8. sirjackshea1980

    My takeaway is that Saban has done a really good job of improving Georgia’s program.

    Liked by 6 people

  9. 69Dawg

    Interesting to see that the new Pro OC has to conform to the Bama offense not change it. If another coach in America had this much power to get what he gets out of his teams year after year, then I wouldn’t hate facing him so. Talent is great but Saban has made a plug and play system to insure the loss of 25% of his team per year doesn’t mean a thing. If the SEC keeps the divisions by realignment then we better hope we get a 12 team playoff.

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  10. uga97

    FU’s AVG margin of loss to Saban over those games is double/twice ours.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. classiccitycanine

    And this, my friends, is why I hate Bama more than all of our traditional rivals. It’s too bad Sherman went through Georgia instead of burning his way through Tuscaloosa and Opelika.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. I just Harsin doesn’t improve on Malzahn record against UGA.

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  13. bigjohnson1992

    Auburn. 5-9. Waiter, I’ll have what they having please.

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  14. bigjohnson1992

    I’m putting Harsin in the Tenn/Arkansas column. Well, he actually won’t be there for 14 losses, but I do know that he ain’t ever gonna beat lil nikky.

    Like