Game day post, Arkansas edition

Holly Rowe on the status of #UGA quarterback JT Daniels: "We’ll see how Georgia’s offense is going to operate. Is JT Daniels going to play? We don’t really know at this point. He’s a game-time decision."

— McClain (@McclainBaxley) October 1, 2021

The good thing is that if he can’t go, his back up already has a win against the Hogs under his belt.  If it’s Stetson today, the most important factor for Georgia on offense will be keeping pressing Bennett off the field.  He needs to play under control and not try to force the action to be at his consistent best.  He can’t let Odom’s defensive scheme get to him and make him impatient.  He took what the defense gave him last year and they’ll need a repeat performance of that today.

Aside from that, there’s only one additional bit of info I want to add to the mix today, as I’ve already spent time talking about game planning.  It’s a stat that I don’t think has gotten much attention — third down conversion rate.  Arkansas is terrible at converting third downs; it’s 35.29% is next to last in the SEC.  (Georgia, by comparison, is third in the conference, at 53.85%.)  That’s likely influenced by Jefferson’s weakness in the intermediate passing game.

And Arky’s offense won’t be helped by Georgia’s defensive third down conversion rate.  Just like everything else the defense does, it excels in preventing third down conversions.  At 28.07%, the Dawgs lead the SEC.  (The Hogs are second.)

So there’s something to keep an eye on.  Can Arkansas stay out of third downs and if they can’t, how often do they convert?  In a game when both defensive coordinators are going to try to make the opposing offenses work their way down the field, that seems like a big deal.

I didn’t like Georgia covering the 18.5-point spread, although I thought they’d come reasonably close, say, 14-17 points, as I think superior depth plays out in the second half.  Stetson, if he plays, reinforces that, because I expect he’s good for one more turnover than Daniels.

That’s all I got.  What about you?  Have at it in the comments.

Advertisement