Cracks in the offense starting to appear?

Josh is nervous.

Georgia is 5-0, #2 in the polls, and just dominated the #8 ranked team in route to a second straight shutout. And this all with backup QB play 2 of the last 3 games and missing key skill position players and a defensive veteran in the secondary. Well, I am wary of the offense. Sorry, gotta do it to you. Monken has improved the offense in most categories from points and yards to success rate metrics, but here are some areas of concern…

… UGA’s offense is being set up for success by elite defensive play, but the offense is only average capitalizing on them.

I have certainly led the charge for Yards Per Play and Net Yards Per Play as being key indicators of a team’s overall strength. While UGA is near the top in this stat, a declining offense and what I believe is unsustainable defensive production makes those number regress to the mean quickly. The ‘Dawgs slipped from 7.0 to 6.5 yards per play offensively after the game on Saturday.

And before you ask, “what about garbage time?”,

Now, we’re all Dawgs here and inner-Munsoning is second nature to us, but how much of this should be a legitimate worry going forward?  Auburn, as I’ve already pointed out, has been mediocre against P5 opposition, but Kentucky has been pretty decent defensively so far.

I think some of this boils down to Monken managing what he’s got in the face of a shrunken receiving corps and uncertainty at the quarterback position.  Yeah, Georgia wasn’t exactly explosive on offense last Saturday, but, it didn’t really need to be after the first quarter, anyway.

More importantly, this gets back to the point I was making yesterday about Brian Fremeau’s tweet.

If you can’t be explosive, you at least need to be very efficient.  Georgia’s certainly been that so far.  How sustainable that is before Daniels heals and more of the receiving corps is back in action is the question.

81 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

81 responses to “Cracks in the offense starting to appear?

  1. moe pritchett

    If the defense is making successive three-n outs and Camarda is punting deep enough and leaving us in good field position…doesn’t that negate some of the necessity to play clock control ball? Short field drives seem to be favorable for any offense, and I’m guessing that may skew the numbers some .
    Again. This opinion and $2.69 gets you a Happy Meal.

    Liked by 3 people

    • akascuba

      One of my biggest worries about the defense is it must stay healthy that’s hard to do in the SEC. Last year we had 5/6 starters on defense hurt against Kentucky. Yeah a lot of them played the next game against FU at a slower pace. Those injuries were a big reason they couldn’t cover the wheel route.

      The offense needs time together with more key play makers at some point to win championships.

      Liked by 5 people

  2. originaluglydawg

    Because we ground it out against Arkansas. Didn’t need any long throws or runs.
    Efficiency isn’t sexy but it’s solid.

    Liked by 7 people

    • elloyd18

      Yep, exactly what I came here to say. These advanced stats of EPA and PPD are more than just fun to read; they’re real ways to analyze and make real predictions for how a game will go. But I’ll give anyone their pick of stats used to predict who wins a game if I get to predict the winner after seeing one team go up 21-0 early first half. Kirby knew what had to be done to win the game, which was, at that point… make sure the clock eventually reads 0:00 later on that day. We ran the ball into a loaded Arkansas front that selling out for the run. The yardage wasn’t overly impressive but the ESPN game ending before 3:30 was. And that’s from Kirby getting out of there ASAP without embarrassing Pittman more than necessary.

      Liked by 6 people

      • Jack Klompus

        Agree. If that’s Malzhan, is that score much, much higher?

        Like

      • classiccitycanine

        We ran it well but it was into a thin front. Arkansas only puts three on the line and Kirby admitted that the reason they ran so much was because of the light front.

        Like

  3. Biggen

    I would have liked to have seen us throw the ball last Saturday more as well but that is not what the defense Arky was playing would really allow.

    Talk about 1st world problems. We blow out the #8 team by the 1st quarter and we still have perceived issues on offense. Its fine. When Daniels is in we can see how good this offense is.

    Any why is the defensive production unsustainable? Its not like there are any teams on our schedule that are offensive juggernauts. If anything, the back half of the schedule has easier competition than the front half.

    Liked by 1 person

    • In the second half, Arky really crowded the line of scrimmage on first down. Monken could have gone play action any time he wanted for some easy completions. He just didn’t want.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Biggen

        You’re right and I don’t disagree and I think it’s fair to ask why we didn’t pass more in the 2nd half.

        My own personal opinion is split between “Don’t fix what isn’t broken” (they couldn’t stop us), they wanted to work on run blocking since there has been a lot of chatter we could run the ball, and finally I don’t think Kirby really wanted to put 50 on Pittman which we could have done.

        Liked by 12 people

        • fisheriesdawg

          We only had four drives in the second half. We didn’t throw it once in the first drive (ended in a 33-yard FG). In the second drive we threw it on third down and got hosed on the spot and punted. In the last two drives, we threw it five times but two of those don’t show up in the stats because Arkansas was either holding or committed PI. Their second half strategy appeared to be to crowd the box to slow the run down and have their DBs basically tackle anyone that started to get open.

          Liked by 4 people

        • rugbydawg79

          It also keeps our defense off the field helping them sustain dominance.

          Liked by 2 people

        • PTC DAWG

          I think it really is as simple as Kirby not wanting to run Pittman and Co out of the building with an embarrassing score.

          Liked by 4 people

          • bcdawg97

            This x1000. I think if it was any other coach, we would’ve seen a different offense last Saturday. Once Kirby realized we could run it all day, he wasn’t going to embarrass Pittman by opening it up.

            Like

      • jdawg108

        Kirby didn’t want. And against Pittman, I agree. Don’t embarrass the guy.

        Like

      • truckerdawg

        Yessir. We finally have the defense that we always dreamed of in the Richt era. With the big games coming up, there’s no reason to put anything on film that you don’t have to.

        Liked by 1 person

      • originaluglydawg

        It’s almost as if he were using the rest of the game for practice/experience and maybe to evaluate some players.

        Like

    • MGW

      I hear ya, but you don’t get a trophy for beating everyone but Alabama. Measured against them, we have issues that need to be worked out.

      Like

  4. Godawg

    Crap…we’re doomed…

    Liked by 4 people

  5. I hope the plains eagles/war tigers are buying into this crap.

    Wait till we rush for 300 on ’em.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. Ran A

    Arkansas played to keep the explosive plays from happening. And that part of their scheme worked. But that opened up the running game.

    Auburn will likely play to stop the run and then run a (let’s not call it soft – let’s call it conservative coverage with their back 4). That should leave the middle or gap in-between the LB’S and safeties open. This is what I expect Monken to attack, scheming open receivers on the outside and over the middle, wheel routes to the outside and tight ends dead over the middle, running right by their linebackers.

    I think it forces Auburn to make a change by half time that will then open up the running game, which might not need help anyway. Line play is coming around and should have gained a lot of confidence off of last weeks performance.

    Honestly, I’m not worried, especially as Georgia begins to get healthy within it’d receiver groups over the next two/three weeks.

    Liked by 5 people

  7. what I believe is unsustainable defensive production

    I disagree with this premise.

    Liked by 12 people

    • Biggen

      Me too. It’s not like we are getting multiple turnovers a game. Lady luck doesn’t have anything to do with our defensive performance. We are big, fast, physical, and smart up front. That’s a recipe for success all season long.

      Liked by 9 people

      • miltondawg

        This I would agree with. It isn’t like 2021 Georgia is the 2009 NO Saints that led the league in scoring but had a porous defense that gave up yards and points in bunches but managed to get incredibly timely fumbles and picks (including 9 by one player that returned 3 for TDs). The offense for Georgia is fine. The defense is elite. I’ll take that any day.

        Liked by 2 people

      • californiadawg

        Plus we’re deep and rotate a ton. Kirby has admitted he’s never had a front 7 this deep before.

        Like

        • Biggen

          Yup. The article that the Senator linked said: what I believe is unsustainable defensive production makes those number regress to the mean quickly* Well, my argument is what if our current standard of defense this year is the mean? There is no regression because they are already operating at baseline.

          I don’t think anyone is foolish enough to think we shut everyone down game after game. But the 2nd half of our schedule is far easier than the 1st half. We get through October and I don’t see how the defense does anything but improve their stats.

          Like

    • MGW

      I also disagree…. until we get to Atlanta. Then I don’t know what to think, but I know we ought to plan to need to score a lot of points there and beyond. Hope we get healthy soon.

      Like

  8. practicaldawg

    For all the people that hate manball, it was absolutely the right game plan against Arkansas. When the other team can’t convert on 3rd down to save their life, there is no reason to go bombs away on offense. If you watch the game again, you’ll even see that Monken wanted to throw the ball. He probably threw it too much on the first few series.

    But the game was quickly over in the first quarter. Slow, low-risk, clock devouring drives were absolutely the right decision (even if they do result in less sexy stats).

    Liked by 2 people

    • HirsuteDawg

      If Arkansas hadn’t been pretty good on the D line and line backers our running stats would have been much better. It wouldn’t have taken much for us to turn some of those runs into big gains. Hogs get credit for making us pedestrian (though efficient).

      Like

  9. I’m nervous too. The question is more and more becoming not when Daniels returns, but if Daniels returns.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Down Island Way

      “Madman Monken” may coach/scheme players to specific techniques/spacing/areas/eye recognition on the field and if they all do whats asked of them, good things will happen…no matter who is on the field performing…

      Liked by 2 people

    • originaluglydawg

      And what if Stet gets hurt, the flu, etc?
      Who’s the backup? I guess it’s CB.

      Like

      • Biggen

        I guess Beck. No team can really survive on their 3rd string QB for very long though. That’s one of those things that would end anyone’s season.

        Like

  10. Granthams Replacement

    If the defense is in dime with 3 deep WTF is Monken supposed to do? If and offense gets 3 yards a play and has no penalties/turnovers they score every time.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Summary, we haven’t seen the explosiveness from the offense yet because we haven’t needed it. The offense is complimenting the defense. So basically he is worried that IF we get into a shootout (the reference to the ‘unsustainable’), the offense will get exposed and not be able to keep up. As people have pointed out above (as well as the wise sage Danny K says lol) ‘we ain’t played any offenses yet Paaaaaaul’. Here’s to healing up our receiving core and QB before the SEC championship game. Lets keep our inner Munson in check until then.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Down Island Way

      If UGA football isn’t the # 2 college football team in the world, WTFI…are the bammers 1&2 ranked, so what, we’ll catch them in Dec. to answer that question or make that statement, ’till then, it appears as though the “D” will rule and the “O” will cash in when available, no need to push the issue when leading 20 ish points in the first quarter of play….#AUBURN SUCKS!…

      Like

  12. fisheriesdawg

    Let’s look at the first two drives on offense. Those are all that you can really read, because by the time we got the ball a third time it was already 21-0 and we were 4 minutes into the 2nd quarter. The strategy had already changed, especially once Stetson tried to force a throw to Bowers right before the FG that could have been intercepted.

    First drive:
    Run for 9 yards
    Pass for 16 yards
    Run for 10 yards
    Run for 1 yard
    Pass interference
    Incomplete pass
    Run for 13 yards
    Run for 3 yards
    Pass for 6 yards
    TD run for 3 yards

    Second drive:
    Run for 7 yards
    Run for 5 yards
    Run for 6 yards
    Run for 2 yards
    Run for 1 yard
    Run for 3 yards
    Pass for 27 yards
    Run for 1 yard
    TD run for 1 yard

    Most of the short runs were either on obvious run situations (3rd and short) or at the goal line. But nothing about those drives makes me worry.

    Liked by 4 people

  13. Derek

    I do think to win a natty we’re going to have to get to 30 vs. someone with decent defensive personnel. Of course, if we never let anyone get over 10, that’ll work too.

    Liked by 5 people

  14. kirkwooderson

    The question isn’t whether we can beat Arkansas and Auburn, it’s whether we can beat Bama. That is a legitimate question. We are projecting those fears onto inferior teams like Aub and whatnot, but this is really just existential dread at what’s coming. Sure this offense is plenty to beat UF and UK and whatever, but we all know it is not enough (yet) to win it all. And that’s the goal now for better or worse. I hope we get better, and have faith in the coaches. I do think Kirby is no longer an impediment to the offense. But he can’t make a lat injury heal faster than it should.

    Liked by 1 person

    • RangerRuss

      “Kirby… can’t make a lat injury heal faster than it should.” Absolutely correct, Kirk. But he can delay the healing or worsen the injury by forcing Daniels back into action too soon. Needlessly, I might add. SBIV can handle those assholes from Auburn and then Kentucky as long as the D keeps doing their thing. With the bye week JTD should be ready for action in J’ville. Manball sucks? Style points don’t count for shit.
      It’s like that famous Raider personality Gatriguy says, “Just win, baby!’

      Liked by 5 people

    • HirsuteDawg

      Hope the team and coaching are focusing on Auburn – Beat their asses then worry about the next one. Focus on Alabama or whoever when the time comes.

      Liked by 4 people

  15. Texas Dawg

    We’ve been very efficient but not explosive in the run game. With Milton getting healthy and Cook getting more touches I suspect that is about to change. Against Arky, when they were getting 4,5,6 a carry, why would you throw it?

    Liked by 2 people

  16. willypmd

    I don’t remember the definition of garbage time, but everything after we were up 21- 0 is garbage time and should be throw out of meaningful stats in My opinion.

    At that point Monken (and everyone else) knew that Arkansas wasn’t scoring unless we helped them and Stetson was willing to throw into quadruple coverage despite having multiple players open for a first down.

    We could have taken a knee on every offensive play and still one comfortably.

    Liked by 4 people

  17. 2 years ago, my eyes told me we did not have a good enough offense to get through the SECCG. This year my eyes tell me we’re just fine. Keep your stats, I’ll go by instinct.

    Liked by 6 people

    • DawgStats

      I want to be loud wrong. Go Dawgs!!

      Liked by 3 people

      • 81Dog

        Your concern is understandable. To some degree, none of us trusts what our lyin’ eyes and the numbers seem to tell us: this UGA defense isn’t just good, or even really good; it’s generationally good. It’s the product of top notch recruiting, top notch coaching, training, and facilities, and while it seems to have suddenly jellied, it’s a cake that has taken 5 years to bake. None of us wants to be mouthy a-holes talking out of our colons, or even 2015 us hoping, rather than knowing, we are for real.

        I don’t know what happens this week, or next week, or in December, but I know this: I wouldn’t trade our D for anyone else’s in the country, I can see our O improving weekly, while people are getting healthy, and our special teams are money. My advice to everyone else? Come and get your best hold, but you’re going home with a limp. False modesty is no virtue, honest statements of fact are no sin. This team is for real. This D will suffocate you. Bring. It. On.

        Also, FTMF who ain’t us. We got the claim check. Let’s go pick up the baggage. 🙂

        Liked by 5 people

    • That’s where I am at…even against Klempzen, our defense was playing so well that I had this sense of calm that as a Dawg fan I haven’t felt in a very very long time. This team here just “feels” different…not sure if it’s the swagger or the TCB demeanor, whatever it is it must be infectious because it’s spreading throughout the team and on to the fan base…when was the last time we felt this good about having a picnic in Opelika, AL?

      Liked by 3 people

  18. akascuba

    I don’t think anyone will try much 3-2-6 against this offense regularly again. JT is more flexible with anything a DC daily up. SBIV has shown at times the need to force passes and make the wrong reads more than JT. I’m all in on SBIV being a DGD and excellent back up QB. I just don’t see him leading a team to championships.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Biggen

      I’m not a defensive play guy but I’m still confused on why 3 down linemen would be a good choice against a team that has a stable of RBs like us. I’m assuming the LBs play a larger role in run defense and rushing the passer. I don’t know… All I know I know is we kept hitting them for 7 yards a carry and they still couldn’t stop it.

      Like

  19. biggusrickus

    I’m not going to worry that they tried to grind out drives once they got up 21-0 against what had been a pretty good defense coming into the game. They held Texas to 4 YPP, over 2.5 YPP below their season average, for example. They also were successful in grinding out those drives. Sure, I would have liked them to take at least one play-action shot on first down when Arkansas started crashing down to get Georgia behind the chains, but it doesn’t make me think their offense won’t be able to score if they need to against someone.

    Liked by 1 person

  20. dubdawg92

    I felt like once we went up 21-0 the gameplan shifted to being ultra-conservative, control-the clock, and don’t make many mistakes. Part of that is because our defense is so dominant and part of that is because Stetson has a tendency to force things, like we saw with that Arkansas dropped pick on the FG drive in the 2nd quarter. IMO the staff basically felt that the only way that Arkansas gets back into that game Saturday was if we shot ourselves in the foot on offense.

    I was a little frustrated Saturday, but we were basically running a variant of the same play over and over again and still picking up 3+ yards.

    Liked by 2 people

  21. sundiatagaines

    Our first two drives looked just fine. Mix of run and pass. Then it was 21-0 and zero reason to do much else after that.

    Liked by 3 people

  22. RangerRuss

    I’m just not as worried as I normally would/should be that the Dawgs 5 Star QB isn’t healthy. Of course I know that the Dawgs would be more explosive on O with Daniels at the helm. But as long as the Dawgs are winning and basically kicking the shit out of our rivals? I’m real happy. Enjoying the hell out of this season.
    Auburn sucks and they don’t have a lake. What are they good for?

    Liked by 7 people

  23. godawgs1701

    3/4 of the Vanderbilt game and all of two other games were played with a backup quarterback with whom Georgia would prefer not to throw the ball (yes, he did torch UAB and Vandy a few times). We’ve only played 2.25 football games with the starting quarterback we want and 1.00 of those was with the oblique injury and no top WRs against Clemson.

    I’m just saying, the statistics on Georgia’s offense are a little bit skewed right now. Give me JT Daniels and a healed receiver corps and I’ll feel just fine. That could happen as soon as the UK game.

    Liked by 1 person

  24. Dang, Josh, I’m surprised you’d Dawggrade your own team that way.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. otto1980

    Against a 3-2-6 it is simple math to run the ball if your 5 OL can push around their 5 in the box, even if they bring up a safety UGA’S TEs should win the block. 2 TE sets are perfect to destroy a 3-2-6. Run it, grind out the clock, keep your defense fresh. Further the RB group is possibly the healthiest position group on the team and the one which has been under utilized/performed/more was expected from not sure exactly which but you get the idea. Let them eat. As Stetson confirmed that was the game plan, they executed it.

    I am not going to read much more into the Arkansas game. Auburn has the defensive front to push the offense more. We’ll see how they perform this week. Oddly we need the prep against Auburn as Kentucky and UF are must wins, especially Kentucky.

    Like

  26. Munsoning

    Tell me about the cracks in the offense when JT, Pickens, Dom, MRJS, and Arian are healthy. I appreciate Josh ‘Dawg_Stats’ Hancher’s work and learn a lot from it but I ain’t worried. We’re crushing folks with a bunch of freshmen (Ladd, Adonai, BB) catching balls thrown by a midget QB who’s the human embodiment of an Onward Reserve gilet.

    Liked by 1 person

  27. 69Dawg

    My worries are as follows: 1. With SBIV the only alternative at QB will we let him run? 2. Will SBIV miss easy throws just to panic late and throw into coverages. 3. Will the team bus breakdown?

    Liked by 1 person

  28. originaluglydawg

    My largest worries are three.
    1. It will be loud. We haven’t faced a loud, hostile crowd like this will be.
    2. SEC Refs. This is a home game for them.
    3. Who backs up Stetson if he’s hurt or ill?

    Like

    • PTC DAWG

      Yes, for a while
      I would think if anything, the SEC will want UGA to be undefeated…that said, I don’t think the refs come into play if we play like I think we will
      IF the game is close, I fully expect JT to come into the game, assuming he’s dressed like he has been.

      Like

  29. uga97

    Bennett brings lots of great play fake & arm ass fakes and diversion runs that Beck doesn’t have down yet. Those intangibles are what keeps opposing Ds confused at snap.

    Like

  30. thosebigthighs

    I liked the comment the announcers made late in the game about how the O line was taking on the persona of the D line. They were getting a good push, of course Arkies D was worn out by then.

    Liked by 1 person