“Dan Mullen can’t win championships…”

…with Todd Grantham running his defenses“.

Why?  Because Florida doesn’t score enough to cover his defensive coaching.

In Grantham’s career as a college defensive coordinator — 2010-13 at Georgia, 2014-16 at Louisville, 2017 at Mississippi State, and 2018-21 at Florida — the team he’s worked for has only kept FBS opponents below an average of 20 points per game once: 2019, at 18.3. The next-fewest have been 2012 UGA (20.1) and this year’s Florida (21.1, through LSU).

In the same time frame, only two national champions have allowed more than 20 points per game to FBS competition: 2014 Ohio State (22.0) and 2019 LSU (22.4).

The former averaged 44.8 PPG and the latter 47.2 PPG against FBS foes. Both of those marks are well above the best Mullen has ever done as a head coach (2020’s 39.8 overall or 41.6 pre-bowl). Both also had some good luck residuals from Pythagorean expectation. The ’14 Buckeyes had an expectation of 12.7 wins and went 14-1, while the ’19 Tigers had an expectation of 12.0 wins and went 14-0 against FBS foes (including 2-0 in one-score games).

Two other champs managed to fall between 19 and 20 PPG allowed, and they have similar stories. The 2016 Clemson Tigers only hit 37.8 PPG scored but did have some good luck. They went 13-1 against FBS teams despite an expectation for 11.6 wins. Then 2020 Alabama averaged 48.5 PPG scored and beat their expectation of 11.7 wins by going 13-0.

So, if you want to win a national title while allowing more than 20 points per game to FBS teams, you had better have an offense that scores more than any team Mullen has run as a head coach and get a little lucky in the process.

I know David has constructed that argument as a criticism of Grantham, but I prefer to see it as blaming Mullen.  It’s the romantic in me, I guess.



Filed under Gators, Gators..., Stats Geek!

29 responses to ““Dan Mullen can’t win championships…”

  1. On yesterday’s SZD, Godfrey hinted at something I’ve long thought: Grantham is there bc no one else will work for Mullen. He’s a miserable, arrogant asshole and no one except desperate coaches want to put up with that.

    The ONLY “big” name I can see him snagged as DC after this season is Manny Diaz after Miami cans him, since he’s don’t 2 tours under Mullen.

    Of course, he left both times after 1 year, so…..

    Liked by 4 people

    • Harold Miller

      Desperate coaches like maybe Jeremy Pruitt?


      • That’s interesting, though I imagine he’s toxic at this point. He doesn’t have a show cause officially, but I think it’s sort of an understood thing until his settlement is finalized.


        • Previously Paul

          Plus Jeremy is threatening to sue and air the dirty laundry. Not sure anyone will hire him again. Perhaps he figures he needs to get whatever money he can now. New career path may be in his future.


    • Spell Dawg

      An interesting thing I read yesterday regarding Mullen’s current contract is his buyout is the same through the end of the contract(!). Canning him now costs them $12mil, canning him two years from now: $12mil. That was a huge revelation to me; I went from thinking CTG would be out to thinking they’ll probably clean-sweep everybody. The money they’ll save on MuLLLen’s contract and makes it a no-brainer.

      Recruiting class is already in the shitter, I don’t see much for them to lose. We embarrass them next weekend, it could be McElwain 2.0. Two more losses this season, he’s done for sure.

      They are on the UTenn track to mediocrity!
      God, what a glorious Fall we are having!!!

      Liked by 1 person

      • I just want to win. I do not expect us to blast Florida, as I’ve only ever seen that twice in my life.


        • This game has only been #1 vs UNR 3 times. All three were bangers.

          1942, #1 UGA beats UNR FL 75-0
          1996, #1 FL beats UNR UGA 47-7
          2009, #1 FL beats UNR UGA 41-17

          It’s time to even the score. FTMF

          Go Dawgs!

          Liked by 7 people

          • Dylan Dreyer's Booty

            I don’t think either team was ranked, and I’m too lazy to look it up, but I seem to recall 1968 being a watershed game for UGA.


        • Spell Dawg

          Me, too (obviously). That ass-kicking we gave them at McElwain’s last stand was like nothing I’ve witnessed before. That said, I think UF’s D has quit on them. I think points will come easy for us.

          Richardson (who we all know is starting) looks like a playmaker, but he also looks like a guy with a gambling problem; he doesn’t appreciate throwing it out-of-bounds to save a negative play. If I was breaking down potential outcomes, these are the odds I’d give:
          5% – Gators somehow win
          5% – Dawgs win in a nail-bitter
          35% – Dawgs straight roll their asses
          55% – Dawgs win, but only by a score or three


    • stoopnagle

      Man, that segment was SO MUCH GOOD.


  2. 81Dog

    Honestly, why can’t it be a legit criticism of BOTH? Works for me.

    Liked by 5 people

    • Down Island Way

      Dan Mullen can’t win championships…”” mainly cause that’s not his goal/ambition/motivation, it’s not what keeps him up at night, cause if it was, then the FU hc would, oh, beware, he’ll tell any recording device within a jorts throw of hogtown this, that any any other random B.S. he can spew…gator standard, WTF is it, in all honesty, could GAS less…”And screw florida and the mule it came in here on”….#FTMF


  3. Ran A

    Gratham has gotten a lot of people with his smoke and mirrors. What it Steele, who called him the best DC in the SEC a couple of years ago? Looks like it is all catching up with him… Too bad, I liked him as UF’s DC.
    Not feeling sorry for the guy either. If he has remotely managed his money well, he is a multi-millionaire that can retire tomorrow.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. jdawg108

    Who’s the bigger fool- the incompetent jackass or the person who refuses to fire him?

    Liked by 3 people

    • akascuba

      I would use arrogant today hopefully your use of incompetent is better suited after Kirby personally delivers his Halloween present.

      Liked by 1 person

      • jdawg108

        The incompetent jackass I referred to above was Grantham, but I can totally understand the confusion regarding it being Mullen.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Down Island Way

          They’re both interchangeable jackassesssth, since the FU hc is at the head on the line, let’s make him the head of the jack ass society….#FTMF


  5. biggusrickus

    In fairness to Grantham, Mullen isn’t winning a national title with any other DC either.

    Liked by 8 people

  6. RC

    “Both of those marks are well above the best Mullen has ever done as a head coach (2020’s 39.8 overall or 41.6 pre-bowl).”

    And yet the multitudes continue to refer to him as an offensive genius/savant. When will somebody in the media stop parroting the narrative and actually look at some stats? Was it Hitler who said that if you tell a lie enough times it comes the truth?

    Liked by 1 person

  7. MGW

    Bobo did a better job covering for Grantham’s D than Mullen has.

    Let that sink in for a minute.

    Liked by 4 people

  8. W Cobb Dawg

    They didn’t mention that he sucks at recruiting too.

    But don’t forget CTG always has that lucrative nfl job waiting for him at … unnamed team. Better give him a raise and time extension so he won’t bolt.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. otto1980

    Mullen lucked into Trask and hasn’t developed a QB like he did at Starkville or as an OC. You combine that with sticking with CTG, not good for them.

    The silly season will be interesting. If Mullen keeps his job by firing CTG does he get Manny Diaz if he gets fired from Miami?


    • biggusrickus

      I also like that Gator fans include Tebow in his QB development chain, as if Tebow wasn’t pretty much the exact same player as a senior he was as a freshman.

      Liked by 4 people

  10. ericstrattonrushchairmandamngladtomeetyou

    Personally I blame Grantham for UGA losing the 2012 SECCG and what likely would have been the 2012 National Championship. That team had a great O and very good players on D but no defensive depth. Grantham kept the Starters on D on the field too long until they were completely gassed allowing Bama to throw the long TD pass near the end of the game that won it for the Tide.

    Liked by 1 person

    • theorginaldawgabides

      Grantham sucks for sure, but the reason there was no depth in the first place was because of Richt’s abhorrent roster management. Between his insistence on undersigning, normal attrition, and injuries, we went into that game with less than 60 scholarship players.

      Liked by 1 person

      • ericstrattonrushchairmandamngladtomeetyou

        ^Truth (unfortunately). Nevertheless I still think Grantham’s lack of recruiting ability had a lot to do with that.


  11. JaxDawg

    Right…because the only thing that has kept FU from being champs is defense.

    Their fan base is in full meltdown mode. And after the turds lose to us, they’ll close out the season in the W column expect potentially the bowl.

    Que the “he moved on from Grantham, let’s give the developer/portal master/greatest offensive mind in football a chance to right the ship.”

    Dan Mullen retained, and their perpetual mediocrity secured. As Travis Tritt sang…it’s a great day to be alive.

    Liked by 3 people

  12. MGW

    Hey maybe they’ll “peak” again like last year soon.