I’ve got a couple of posts from Bud Davis, a Florida Gator I’ve been following on Twitter, regarding advanced stats and how they might apply to what gets schemed by both teams Saturday, that I’m gonna share. There is a lot of good data in them and he’s not trying to push a Florida narrative. The first post is about the two run games. Here’s his conclusion:
Georgia’s run defense is exceptionally good and devoid of any obvious weaknesses. The Florida offense will have to be creative with their rushing attack. Emory Jones & Anthony Richardson might end up being Florida’s most effective ground weapons. Look for Option and QB runs to create number advantages against the Bulldog defense. Florida hasn’t run much Power or Counter in 2021, Mullen may implement more pulling Guards & Tackle as a novel wrinkle against UGA.
Florida’s run defense is more susceptible than the Bulldogs. If the Gators can limit UGA’s interior run game, this side of the ballgame may actually get competitive. Georgia likes to run to the outside, which has been a relative strength for the Gator defense this season. Look for the Bulldogs to test the Gators on Counter, with a pulling Guard & Tackle, to see if Grantham has tidied that up since LSU. Lastly, watch out for Stetson Bennett, he’s a much more competent runner than Gator fans give him credit for.
Will Monken test Grantham with the counter, or will he run things playing off Grantham’s concern about defending the counter? That’ll be fun to watch.
Next is his post about the passing games. Again, I’ll skip to the conclusion:
Florida’s passing offense must play their best game of the season for Florida to win this one. If the Gator’s aren’t able to regularly complete intermediate or deep passes, it’s tough to see the offense scoring very many points. Georgia has been relatively vulnerable against Slants and Go routes, two routes I’d love to see the offense execute with efficiency. Additionally, opposing offenses have been able to sting the Bulldogs on the deep perimeter, where CBs are often in one-on-one situations with WRs. I’d like to see Florida give Copeland or Shorter opportunities here if the OL can buy them enough time. To me, the data indicate that if Florida gets conservative, and tries to rely on Screens, Flats, or Swing passes to move the ball, this UGA defense will likely eat them up.
On the defensive side of the ball, Florida is going to be tested by a very aggressive passing offense. Florida’s DBs and Safeties need to continue to limit deeper completions and keep the game in front of them. The routes I’m most worried about involve Brock Bowers (or another slot receiver) finding gaps in the middle on a Seam, or sneaking across the defense for a Deep Cross. I think Florida has a solid chance to stymie this UGA passing offense if they can limit these routes and make Bennett beat them by throwing to WRs in one-on-one situations.
He’s right about the slant route. I’m surprised other offenses haven’t tested Georgia’s defense more with that. And the last sentence there gets back to my thoughts about whether the staff feels Daniels is good to go. That being said, I think back to last season’s game. Receivers getting open deep wasn’t a problem; Georgia’s quarterbacks hitting open receivers was. Bennett is a much different animal in that regard now.
Anyway, there’s a lot of stuff in both posts worth a look. Take a few minutes to wade through each.