Back in the saddle again

The Dawgs return to the top of Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings.

Clemson ahead of Oklahoma is kind of funky, but Bill explains there’s still a little preseason projection in the mix.  If you go by what he calls resume SP+ (actual results vs. what the average top-five team would be expected to do against your schedule, no preseason projections involved), the top ten looks like this:

1. Georgia (+10.8 PPG over what the average top-five team would have produced against its schedule)
2. Ohio State (+4.8)
3. Alabama (+3.1)
4. Michigan (-1.7)
5. Cincinnati (-4.9)
6. Pitt (-5.2)
7. Penn State (-7.0)
8. Ole Miss (-7.3)
9. NC State (-7.8)
10. Notre Dame (-8.0)

FWIW, Georgia’s on top in ESPN’s FPI, as well.  The eyebrow raising thing there is one-loss Alabama projected to have a 35.2% chance to win the SEC and a 71.2% chance to make the CFP field.  Sure sounds like they think the Tide has a decent shot of being the first two-loss team to reach the playoffs.

8 Comments

Filed under Alabama, BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

8 responses to “Back in the saddle again

  1. Down Island Way

    They want the bammers in that cfp, they neeed the bammers in that cfp…

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Unless a boatload of stuff happens between now and December, a 2-loss Alabama isn’t getting in. I’m still not convinced a 1-loss SEC championship game loser who is undefeated in the regular season will get in either.

    Leave no doubt, Dawgs. Don’t lose focus on Saturday in Tooth Country.

    Liked by 7 people

    • miltondawg

      I agree. If Georgia loses on December 4th I don’t think that they are in the playoff unless you have something crazy happen in the B1G East November round robin and/or Oregon losing on the road to Utah in two weeks (not out of the realm of possibility) or in the Pac 12 championship game (which is likely to be a rematch with Utah).

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  3. Corch Irvin Meyers, Former Jags Corch (2021)

    I’m sorry, but him having Tosu that high is a joke and makes it real difficult to take his methodology seriously. They’ve beaten up terrible football teams and struggled or lost to the mediocre to good teams they’ve played.

    They’re not the second best team in the country. They’re not in the top-5.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Somebody has to be second, Ricky Bobby. You could make a decent argument for three or four teams to be second. I agree that Ohio State isn’t as good as everyone is making them out to be for the reasons you espouse, but they might be the second best team in the country.

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    • ASEF

      It’s a metric that prioritizes per-play results that correlate strongly with Ws and minimizes the ones that don’t. It’s a handy filter to look at teams when our biases want to mess with our perceptions. Fremeau has his own set of metrics, and they say roughly the same thing: Ohio State, given the rest of the 2021 field, is probably the 2nd best team in the country.

      The metrics love Georgia because it’s winning almost every play, not because it wins every game. And both of those guys would tell you the metrics probably underestimate Georgia because, with this defense, Kirby has a very different definition of “garbage time” than their spread sheets.

      I would bet the title game is Georgia vs Ohio State, and I’m guessing it’s a game into the 4th quarter.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Outside of Georgia, there’s enough “meh” teams that Bama or even OSU could sneak in as 2 loss teams, assuming loss #2 comes in a championship game.

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  5. practicaldawg

    If TAMU wins out strongly, it would be weird to take a 2 loss Bama team that lost to UGA and TAMU. Seems like TAMU has a stronger case to be a 2 loss playoff team having beaten Alabama.

    Also, a 2 loss 2018 UGA team was given no chance despite getting a Mullen-like quality loss to Alabama in the SECCG.

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