SEC Net YPP, Week 11

Every team was in action, some more than others, as you’ll see.  (As always, stats via cfbstats.com.)

  1. Georgia 3.01 (6.90 o; 3.89 d) [NC: -.10]
  2. Alabama 2.05 (6.69 o; 4.64 d) [NC:  +.34]
  3. Florida 1.53 (7.07 o; 5.54 d) [NC: +.26]
  4. Texas A&M 1.28 (5.98 o; 4.70 d) [NC: -.18]
  5. Arkansas 1.12 (6.30 o; 5.18 d) [NC: -.04]
  6. Ole Miss 1.01 (6.64 o; 5.63 d) [NC:  -.15]
  7. Tennessee .88 (6.29 o; 5.41 d) [NC: -.39]
  8. Auburn:  .87 (6.17 o; 5.30 d) [NC:  -.06]
  9. Kentucky .61 (6.08 o; 5.47 d) [NC: +.20]
  10. Mississippi State .08 (5.75 o; 5.67 d) [NC: -.08]
  11. LSU -.24 (5.27 o; 5.51 d) [NC: -.05]
  12. South Carolina -.35 (5.17 o; 5.52 d) [NC: -.27]
  13. Missouri -.40 (6.13 o; 6.53 d) [NC: +.31]
  14. Vanderbilt -2.15 (4.50 o; 6.65 d) [NC: -.04]

Turnover margin, after week six:

  • +12:  Ole Miss
  • +8:  Alabama
  • +5:  Arkansas
  • +4:  Georgia, Missouri
  • +1:  Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
  • -1:  LSU, Texas A&M
  • -2:  Auburn
  • -3:  Vanderbilt
  • -8:  Florida
  • -12:  Kentucky

Observations:

  • Alabama is back over the 2-net ypp threshold for CFP worthiness.
  • Tennessee’s steep drop is the sign of a beatdown rather than a moral victory.
  • Ole Miss stopped TAMU’s steady progress.
  • The net changes show the Missouri-South Carolina game wasn’t as close as the score indicated.
  • I don’t know what Florida’s net gain shows.

14 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

14 responses to “SEC Net YPP, Week 11

  1. pedropossum

    Alabama has two more tough games. Just saying ypp could go drop before seccg.

    Like

  2. fisheriesdawg

    Hell, Florida being third in that list is quite the head-scratcher right now. South Carolina is the only team that they haven’t outgained this season. Yet they’re a complete dumpster fire at this point and they’re only a touchdown favorite over Missouri, who is 13th on that list.

    Like

    • gotthepicture

      What it says to me is that turnovers have overridden their net YPP, so the bigger head-scratcher is Kentucky who has outperformed their net YPP despite turnovers.

      Like

  3. spur21

    Florida’s next coach will need a firetruck to put that dumpster fire out. I’m loving it.

    Liked by 1 person

    • godawgs1701

      Hoping Dopey Dan gets another year in Gainesville. Tennessee has shown that in the Transfer Portal Era you can right a ship pretty fast. They aren’t on Georgia’s level and it would be a couple years or more before they could hope to be in terms of depth, but before the season I would have told you the Vols were only in line for 3 or 4 wins with the mass defection of talent they had. If Florida actually manages to make a good hire and gets someone who can recruit they could potentially be at least knocking on our door in 2023.

      Like

      • godawgs1701

        If they fire Dan this year, that is. It’s a two year rebuild for sure, at least.

        Like

      • fisheriesdawg

        The only thing about rebuilding via the transfer portal is that it isn’t a long-term solution. You’re always going to be better recruiting kids out of high school and using the portal to fill a gap here or there than you are to rely on it as a strategy. This is really no different than Bill Snyder living on JuCo kids back in the 90s. That approach can get you part of the way there, but you’re never going to reach the top of the mountain if you’re not getting most of them in your program at 18.

        Like

  4. Wonder how we stand nationally on Net YPP?

    Like

  5. I’ll be honest, Senator, I’ve been really, GLACIALLY, slow to adapt to analytics for college football. I think there are three primary reasons for that – (I) my old man, curmudgeonly resistance to change, (II) my belief that football is such a different sport with so many variables, different schedules, turnovers, etc., that it doesn’t lend itself to analytical analysis like, say, baseball, and (iii) small sample size. But you have been pushing ypp for so long so this morning I sat down and decided I wasn’t getting up from my morning reading until I understood what the deuce you were talking about. The penney dropped. Maybe the games as a whole DO present too small a sample size. But if you reduce a game to a series of 60 – 100 plays with eleven guys trying to win the battle with the guy across from him, then you’ve eliminated all my objections, save old man stubbornness. That required a cup of coffee and some willpower. Once the light came on, I also realized why, even though we have had good teams before, I don’t approach every game this season like a cat in a room full of rocking chairs as in years’ past. I just have this sense that, although there may be turbulence early in the game, once enough plays happen, I just expect us to be where we usually are: third quarter, sitting on a lead, with an opponent on its heels and desperately looking for points. In other words, suddenly those numbers affirmed what my eyes have been telling me all along. It’s like when for Neo, everything fell away and he just saw code.

    (Except I am not The One, I just the janitor on the ship who happened to smoke an extra strong bowl of the Humboldt County Express and tinkered with the equipment and for a brief moment, punched above my weight.)

    We need a word to describe my conversion experience. Every word of this is true btw – typically, when I see columns of numbers, especially with parentheses and decimals, I move right along.

    Liked by 6 people

  6. waterswv

    Is this a fickle metric or does it show how incredibly terrible the coaching at Florida has been this season?

    Like

  7. godawgs1701

    I think Florida’s net gain shows that they were playing Samford, the 5th place team in the FCS Southern Conference. it just doesn’t tell the whole story. LOL

    Like

  8. Bama and Florida offensive YPP feasted on cupcakes. Our two dessert servings are coming. I would expect to end the season over the 3.0 mark and a full point ahead of Bama.

    Mullen should offer his offensive YPP as evidence of his genius and why he should stay.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Russ

      Heck, after Charleston Southern and Tech, we should be approaching the 4.0 mark, especially if we let JT fling it around the field to get the rust off.

      Like

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