The GOAT trap

Don’t fall for this.  It’s a trap.

The reason I say this is because none of it will matter in the heat of action when you look up in the third quarter of the SECCG and see Georgia with a respectable lead if your automatic response is to say “OMG, we’re beating Saban, we can’t let this slip away”.

Nick Saban’s history at Alabama tries to make you play not to lose.  And that’s how you get a win probability chart that looks like this:

You simply cannot coach the way Harsin did yesterday against Saban.  Well, you can, but you’ll likely get what you deserve for doing so.

Kirby has been there before — twice.  Hopefully, he’s learned his lesson.  Being the better team against your common opponents won’t mean shit on Saturday.  Being the better team for a full sixty minutes on Saturday is the only thing that will.

64 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Nick Saban Rules

64 responses to “The GOAT trap

  1. I am convinced that Harsin and Bobo both fell into the “be conservative/run the clock/play safe” trap.

    I didn’t understand why the call on the last drive in regulation that they had the ball was to have a quarterback who was as mobile as a telephone pole being in the game just to hand the ball off. Frankly, they should have gone Wildcat there to pick up the extra blocker and avoid a handoff. Do something slightly different to run the clock and keep it moving.

    And yes, Harsin should have gone for two at the end of the first OT — absolutely no reason not to do it other than kicking the PAT was the “easy” call.

    Liked by 7 people

  2. Anon

    Just win baby……by however much we need. Not begging for more than we need.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Ozam

    Been saying it since the 2012 SEC championship game….. “When you come at the king you best not miss”

    Liked by 7 people

  4. Harsin got even at the roulette table and decided now he was going to keep playing. They build ice sculptures in the desert off of this line of thinking.

    Liked by 5 people

  5. Dylan Dreyer's Booty

    Damn straight.

    Like

  6. moe pritchett

    Nailed it.
    Just keep chopping. Keep swinging.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. pansythedawg

    Luckily, Smart has a few recent notable examples of the intransitive-ness of CFB to ground his team: Alabama-Auburn-A&M and Ohio State-Michigan-Michigan St.

    Liked by 3 people

  8. RangerRuss

    Punch to the short ribs, palm strike to the nose, snap kick to the groin, sweep the leg and then stomp the head and ribs until time runs out. Never let up. When they wake up next morning and look in the mirror there’s no doubt in their mind they just got the shit kicked out of their ass and no rematch will change the outcome. They won’t want to make the playoffs for fear they’ll have to play the Dawgs again and dread next year’s SECC game.
    Sympathy? I don’t think so.

    Liked by 18 people

    • akascuba

      Break them make those MF’s never want to play you again.

      Liked by 4 people

    • Is that you Jack Reacher?

      Liked by 2 people

    • RR, your comment is a telling reminder…normally UGA would be limping into the SEC championship as the underDawg to Bama. Base on how GA used to recruit players on previous teams, some of us would type about how it’s not the size of the Dawg in the fight yadda yadda yadda (in an attempt to make themselves feel better) but that’s not This team. This Dawg team has some of the baddest swinging dicks to ever play college football. To date, These Dawgs have outperformed every other Dawg team in history. Kirby’s players have dominated this entire season, and we’re in better shape now than we were at the start of the season. We should walk into Atlanta next Saturday and absolutely beat Bama so badly that the refs usher in an Old Priest and a Young Priest since UGA will be exercising so many demons. Vegas likes our odds…we like our odds…and this staff and team Kirby has built is bad ass…the Dawgs will bring the thunder.

      Liked by 10 people

    • Texas Dawg

      You’re too kind. Just like any snake, chop it’s damn head off and be done with it.

      Liked by 3 people

  9. Corch Irvin Meyers, Former Jags Corch (2021)

    Welp, going with Stetson Bennett the last 5 games since Daniels has been healthy IS the very definition of playing not to lose.

    One player has a high floor, the other player has a high season. I watched Bennett badly miss on every single pass he tried over 20 yards yesterday and my only thought was, “That’s not beating Bama.”

    I hope I’m wrong, but Kirby continuing to stick with the guy who was beaten by Daniels in Spring and Fall Practice because he’s been good enough to beat the Kentucky’s of the world smacks of class “play-not-to-lose” Kirby.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. akascuba

    Auburn got lucky early every little break from botched FG to interception being overturned with a ruffing the passer first down and shot plays downfield just missing. Playing safe is no way to beat Bama. I’ve seen the movie and know how it ends.

    Liked by 4 people

  11. 25 yards.

    Liked by 6 people

  12. NotMyCrossToBear

    I was traveling and didn’t watch the Bama game. Question: did Auburn go into some type of prevent defense on Bama’s long touchdown drive a5 the end of the game?

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Harsin definitely should have gone for 2 in the first OT. They had maybe one more play in the playbook, not several like Bama. He had a limping QB who isn’t accurate and never been in that situation. He’s at home. He’d be forgiven for trying. He takes the decision away from Saban.

    And let’s not go single coverage on the lone bama WR when Bryce Young is staring at him pre-snap. It’s a corner route. They love it and use it. We’ve sadly seen it. DO NOT LEAVE HIM IN SINGLE MAN COVERAGE!!!!

    Liked by 4 people

  14. Derek

    I was screaming for auburn to go for two when they made it 16-17 at the end of the first ot.

    Tank really blew it when he went out of bounds.

    Oh well….

    Liked by 5 people

    • Texas Dawg

      That’s on the coaching. They should have been pounding into their heads on the sideline. Two hands on the ball and DO NOT GO OUT OF BOUNDS AND STOP THE FUCKING CLOCK!!!!!

      Liked by 2 people

    • ASEF

      Tank had a lot of help from #9. It’s not like he ran out of bounds – he was dragged. And Gary was pretty much a dick about it. Tank played his ass off.

      Yeah, that throw-back 2 pointer wins the game if Harsin runs it the OT session prior.

      Would you rather face a wounded-nothing-to-lose Bama or a just-escaped-feeling’-groovy Bama?

      I’ll take the latter

      Liked by 8 people

  15. gurkhadawg

    Cool. Now do Atlanta vs New England in the Super Bowl.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. uga97

    …and don’t blink. Beating Saban requires mental focus by players & coaches every down. The margin for error is tiny. One Crack slip & Saban wins. See Bigsby. Also doubt Saban is putting his starting skill guys on kickoff coverage Saturday he gave Auburn that gift, & likely won’t repeat it.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Hogbody Spradlin

    Not to mention you gotta play 11 on 18.

    Liked by 4 people

    • ASEF

      Refs hammered Bama yesterday.

      Like

      • 69Dawg

        I hope you are joking. The ref’s missed more calls on Bama than they called. Face Mask called but after discussion flag picked up. The last I checked the face mask is just one part of the helmet. The rule is you can’t tackle by putting you hands into an opening on a helmet. Bama’s guy brought the runner down by putting his fingers in his ear hole and turning his head. The ref that called it got it right but that Bama magic was just working OT I guess. Holding, not unless you tackle the DL to the ground. WR holding ditto. It’s not that they hammered them (actually penalized them) they just don’t hurt them with their penalties. You can call penalties when it doesn’t matter or you can call penalties when a team blocks a punt and the rusher was clearly not offsides. Timing is the biggest problem not the number of yards.

        Liked by 2 people

        • ASEF

          Refs hit Bama truth twice the penalties for twice the yardage. Twice the penalties, twice the yardage. Twice the penalties. Twice the yardage.

          Let an Auburn DB tackle a WR after being beaten – no call. Numerous muggings of Bama WRs downfield. The roughing penalty was total garbage. Typical SEC officiating incompetence.

          The face mask was wrong, but Auburn scored right after. It affected nothing.

          You’re so stuck in the Bama Conspiracy narrative you can’t see straight.

          Like

          • Derek

            Did 7 for bama push off on the tying td pass?

            Like

            • ASEF

              Not really. He was being grabbed, arm never extended.

              It’s simple – if the SEC crew had gone way more B12, with really lenient offensive holding and really strict defensive PI interpretations, Alabama wins going away, maybe a rout if Finley falls apart trying to keep pace,

              The officials called the only kind of game Auburn had a prayer keeping it close. And they called it largely in Auburn’s favor.

              Anyone thinking the refs were ignoring blatant DPI early so they could ignore an ear-hole grab in OT doesn’t understand football

              Like

  18. Saban knows this team isn’t good enough. He’s been trying to tell people all season.

    Liked by 6 people

  19. Or just have your RB Bigsby not go out of bounds. That’s basic football.

    But, yeah, AU coaching really didn’t help. No idea why Derek Mason just stopped doing what was working, allowing Bama to go 90 something yards. Definitely reminds me of our offensive mindset in the 2nd half of the NC.

    Liked by 1 person

  20. ASEF

    Can someone have Murray do a radio rant about Bama getting all the calls all the time? Bo’s rant worked wonders for Auburn yesterday.

    Liked by 1 person

    • To be fair and honest, Bama would need 100 games in which they were screwed by the refs repeatedly just to make the majority of America believe the refs didn’t work for Saban. They have received preferential treatment both in calls made & calls ignored for 15 years.

      Like

      • And that’s not a conspiracy theory, just watch the tape.

        Like

        • ASEF

          Alabama’s had years wheee to egg see the most penalized team in the conference – and their opponents are the least penalized of any team in the conference. Makes total sense, right? The team with by far the most depth talent, with a coach obsessive about details and execution?

          This narrative is total bullshit. Name a game Alabama’s won because SEC refs clearly botched a call. You can’t. I can name you 4 – FOUR – for Auburn alone in the last 3 seasons.

          Why does the SEC get away with crap officiating? Nonsense narratives, conspiracy theories, like this one.

          Like

  21. classiccitycanine

    Kirby, Monken, and Stetson need to stay aggressive for 60 minutes and not just rely on the defense playing lights out for the whole game. A true killer instinct uses all your units to hurt the enemy instead of relying on one to get the job done while the others hang back out of fear of screwing it up.

    Liked by 2 people

  22. biggusrickus

    While I think the Auburn defense needed to be more aggressive when it became apparent Alabama had figured something out to attack their coverage, I wouldn’t generally say they tried to sit on the lead. They had a QB who couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn, and Bobo kept trying to get something going on offense with him to ice the game. Alabama took away the run, and they are incapable of throwing with any kind of consistency with Finley at QB. It’s a miracle they were in position to win it.

    Liked by 2 people

  23. W Cobb Dawg

    Aubie did just as I hoped. They made bama first teamers play til the final whistle. Throw in a bonus for the OTs. And Arky made em work all the way til the end last week. No time to prep for the secc.

    Meanwhile, we get our starters rested and bring back some injured players. I imagine we had some time to prepare for bama too.

    Liked by 4 people

  24. My little 3-year old granddaughter once drew me a picture that looked a lot like that win probability chart. I asked her what the drawing was and she said, “duh, Pops, it’s a win probability chart!”

    I predict a great future for her in the cyberstats field.

    Liked by 2 people