“But you can’t dwell on the past. Nothing you can do about it.”

Per that PFF piece I just linked, the public — okay, the betting public — seems to think that Alabama exposed Georgia in the SECCG.

Georgia is favored by 7.5 points in this semifinal showdown, although the public is heavy on Michigan — 89% of the cash is on the Wolverines to cover the number, and 83% of the cash is on them to win outright.

That, of course, isn’t nearly as important as what these Dawgs think of themselves after a very disappointing loss.  As David Hale puts it, “Can Georgia really erase the lingering effects of such a demoralizing performance so quickly?”  Human beings are complicated things, so who knows, but at least the players and coaches are saying the right things.

“We’re not going to be the same team from last game to this game with Michigan,” Davis said. “We just have to keep moving forward and worry about ourselves.”

The truth might be that Georgia will face all three opponents in the Orange Bowl. Shaking off the lingering nightmare that was the SEC championship game is easier said than done, but a strong start against Michigan would certainly help. The Wolverines present a far different challenge than Alabama, too, and in many ways, their power ground game is a better matchup for the Bulldogs’ defense. There will be no rat poison this time around, either. Georgia has spent the better part of the past month talking about its failures, not its success. That might be a blessing.

“It definitely didn’t put doubt in my mind about our defense,” defensive back Chris Smith said. “Obviously things didn’t go how we wanted them to go that day, but we’re focused on a new opponent. We’re focused on Michigan, and we’re focused on being able to get a win so we can move on to the next level of our season.”

I think Hale is right about one big thing.  The Dawgs need to get off to a strong start Saturday night, because right now, based on what happened in the SECCG, it feels like Michigan comes in as the more confident bunch.

“I don’t think you can call it a blueprint when its only happened once,” Michigan offensive coordinator Josh Gattis said of the Alabama loss. “Georgia is a really good defense but it does give us a little bit of confidence.”

Added Michigan WR Mike Sainristil: “Looking at the film [of the Alabama game], we understand where they can be attacked and we just want to keep attacking those spots.”

Getting his team mentally prepared for this game is Kirby Smart’s biggest coaching challenge of the season.  Agree or disagree?

53 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

53 responses to ““But you can’t dwell on the past. Nothing you can do about it.”

  1. Derek

    I think the defense is going to be pissed off and play like it.

    Liked by 6 people

  2. Ran A

    You know what? I’ve noticed this narrative getting stronger and stronger. Here’s the problem for Michigan. There not Alabama. They do not have the QB or the receivers to attack with the pass first; much less find the same seams that Alabama did. They do not have one receiver remotely close to the the two deep threats that Alabama had. They have to RUN the ball to be successful. Not kind of run it – RUN it.

    Games are about match ups. Michigan does not match up well against Georgia and that is what the computers are telling you too. That’s why Georgia is a TD+ favorite. I think Georgia covers, with the chance of this thing getting out of hand.

    Interesting… I thought Georgia’s defense came into the SEC Championship game a little over-confident. That won’t happen on Friday. And I’m beginning to think that of all units, Michgian’s offense its coming into this game a little over-confident.

    I know their fan-base is…

    Liked by 8 people

    • moe pritchett

      Beat unbiased analysis I’ve read thus far. An addition: UGA is far more talented on the first eleven, and the 2s and 3s. Michigan doesn’t have the depth and that could very well be a factor in 80* south Florida; it won’t be snowing in the Hard Rock.

      Like

    • originaluglydawg

      Agree. MI can’t win by trying to be Bama.
      They have to win being MI and it will come down to which is the better bunch of football players.
      I think it’s Georgia.
      Officiating and just having a shitty game are the two things that scare me, though.
      You KNOW Micky want’s a Big 10 team in the NCG instead of two SEC teams…so Dawgs better make it convincing so even the refs can’t save MI.
      (I really don’t think the officials will actively cheat. I do think they will have normal, human bias that isn’t easily overcome by a personal determination to be fair. But I enjoy hammering them…being an SEC fan and all that.)

      Liked by 2 people

      • Down Island Way

        The hype of 1 vs 2 is a good one, can you market UGA football vs the bammers after the seccg (knowing it’s for a trophy), satan vs ex assistants is a little stale, that CKS can’t win narrative is very old, you can see mickey pushing for meeshigun (WTF is maize)…should this out come occur, UGA football just smokes meeshigun and the bammers sneak past cincy (4-7 points), then you might could stir up enough interest on a monday night, don’t know if you can hold that interest for 10 days…GO DAWGS!

        Like

  3. argondawg

    I agree but we came in the more confident bunch in the SEC championship game and we all saw how that turned out. I think this is a match up more suited to us. I felt like we have been the most physical football team in the country the whole damn year but we got forced to play Bama’s type of football. Michigan doesn’t have those receivers or that QB. They want to beat us at our style and their style. I feel good about it.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. classiccitycanine

    Unlike us, the players can actually do something about the situation. I trust that they will give it their best shot. I like our defense against their offense. I do not like our offense against their defense.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Castleberry

    FWIW, watched a bunch of Michigan games over the last couple of weeks and didn’t see them spread the field out nearly as wide as Bama did. Bama followed the Tennessee model forcing us to defend the full width of the field. Also, McNamara is good but I expect us to bring more pressure and him to be less mobile than what we saw in Young. So…. not sure Michigan can just “follow the Bama blueprint” to great success. They’d be doing something different than what got ’em there against a defense that will have adjusted.

    Like

  6. charlottedawg

    Stupid question, Can someone familiar with gambling explain to me how 80%+ of the money can be on one team? I thought the goal of the point spread is to have approximately 50/ 50 of the bettors on either side, so if 80% are piling into Michigan wouldn’t the spread then move?

    Like

    • mp

      Vegas often does have a view and will take a risk on one side or the other even if the public disagrees. Also, the money coming in at this point is public money rather than the “sharps” who really move lines – they bet on opening and closing lines. So watch other line adjusts from the time it opens and then the day of the game.

      Like

    • ASEF

      If Vegas thinks Georgia is better than 60% to cover, they’ll happily roll the dice on 80% of the money riding on the opposite conclusion. In the big picture, they’ll win that bet 60%+ of the time and net a 60% profit, which is a really nice ROI. Basically a “pot odds” calculation on their part.

      Liked by 1 person

    • miltondawg

      As mp said, until the sharps money starts coming in (which won’t be until Friday afternoon once there is more information about who is or isn’t available, positive tests, etc.) the line won’t move much. If the line were moving right now it means that the sharps are on one side or the other. Vegas is more than happy to let the squares pile up money on one side or the other.

      Like

  7. Michigan is receiving all the love at the moment. It’s crazy how one bad performance can change the way the media sees a team. Before it was Georgia and everyone else and now, “Michigan has all the momentum!”, “Georgia has been exposed!” coming from the pundits.

    Like many here have said already, I feel like this is a bad matchup for Michigan for what they like to do. I agree…they ain’t Bama on offense. I think they are better on defense than Bama though. I like the Dogs in a slugfest with the score being low in the first half and the final score being something like 28-20 or 34-24.

    Liked by 2 people

    • californiadawg

      Also funny how Bama and Michigan get mulligans and passes for bad losses of their own, not to mention Bama needing 4 OTs to beat a shitty Auburn team. Recency bias is a bitch.

      Liked by 5 people

    • Clayton Joiner

      I thought Obama had been exposed too…after the UF game. How did that work out…

      F ’em all! Just win baby! Let’s Go Dawgs!

      Like

  8. PFF’s note on attacking the star position is interesting. Brini struggled more and more as the season went on in that position for whatever reason and got replaced by Poole, who was a disaster against Bama. How that is addressed going forward might be one of the most important decisions that Georgia makes.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Granthams Replacement

      This^^^

      I hope and pray a DB steps up at the star position. Michigan is going there over and over until the well runs dry.

      Like

    • Derek

      When Smith was healthy they put him in that spot when the other team could isolate Brini in a bad match up.

      Not sure Xichigan can do that.

      We’re told that Chris is healthier. We’ll need him to be if we advance.

      Not sure it matters much Friday.

      Liked by 2 people

    • W Cobb Dawg

      “Brini struggled more and more as the season went on..”

      Brini will be playing in the nfl in 2022, along with 8+ other players on this D. We suffered from piss-poor D coaching in the secc, not lack of talent.

      Liked by 2 people

  9. charlottedawg

    I honestly have no idea how this game will play out. I could see Georgia coming out pissed off and just dominating Michigan, especially because the match ups really seem to favor Georgia. I could also see Georgia coming out flat after a demoralizing loss to Alabama and just get pushed around by physical Michigan team while stetson does stetson things.

    Kirby is also about 50/50 coming off of losses

    2017 – absolutely curb stomped Kentucky after losing to Auburn
    2018 – beat the crap out of Florida after losing to LSU and play well the rest of the way but lay an egg to Texas after losing in the seccg
    2019- offense and Jake fromm is permanently neutered after the South Carolina game but wins out riding the defense until they run into a much better LSU team. Play well against Baylor.
    2020 – struggle against Kentucky after losing to Alabama then blown out against the Gators but win out after we bench stetson for JT.

    Like

  10. SoCalDawg

    Agree 100%

    Like

    • SoCalDawg

      sorry, agree 100% that “Getting his team mentally prepared for this game is Kirby Smart’s biggest coaching challenge of the season.”

      Like

  11. practicaldawg

    In the world of college football, your future is always assumed to be based on your last game. How many times did Alabama look like garbage this year?

    Overconfidence is a bigger concern in college football than what the media perceives as lack of confidence in a team. I’ve never seen lack of confidence being an issue in any college game following a loss. I’ve seen teams come out pissed off and win the next game far more often.

    Like

  12. ASEF

    Michigan’s got some weapons, especially along the lines. Georgia won most of their games along the LOS decisively. The two that didn’t happen? Clemson and Alabama. Combine that with Michigan exploding for an average of 47 points per game their last 3, two of those ranked opponents, and you kinda see where the Michigan optimists are coming from. I don’t agree with it, but I get it.

    Georgia’s more talented – marginally, but not inconsequentially – and Georgia’s got the better QB. Michigan will need to be +2 in the turnover department to make it a 4th quarter game.

    Like

  13. Corch Irvin Meyers, Former Jags Corch (2021)

    The players on this team can talk all they want about how they support Stetson Bennett, but after Bama they know they can’t win with him.

    That will make a huge difference in this game and definitely in the next if we manage to win this one.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. Clayton Joiner

    I think losing Anderson was shown to be a bigger problem than any of us understood going into the SECCG, but I do think we have the horses to put pressure on them in all phases this game.

    As for the fast start, 10-0 was seemingly a fast start too, so I don’t really know what to measure Hale’s comment up against….

    I would say a complete game in all 3 phases is more important than his fast start, but I’ll take that too.

    Let’s Go Dawgs!!!!

    Liked by 1 person

  15. TripleB

    I think getting the team mentally ready is indeed the biggest challenge for the coaches.
    As to the line, I heard on the radio it has moved up to UGA -9. Not sure how to read that.

    Like

  16. How did getting the team mentally ready for the last game work out for Kirby? I don’t think it’s the team that needs the help, I think it’s the HC to not over-think things and lead with his own mental attitude being adjusted appropriately. Relax. Focus. Have Fun. Trust. Believe.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Russ

    I think it will be fairly low scoring slugfest, and unless Michigan hits some lucky/trick plays, I think we’ll win. But that’s just a feeling.

    But I’ll say this. When the Braves blew a 4 run lead at home with a chance to win the Series, I knew we were sunk. We weren’t.

    2017 – Bama got hammered by Auburn but backed into the playoffs. We know how that worked for them.

    2011 – Bama lost a 9-6 thriller to LSU and sat home during the SECCG, yet still won the NC.

    So, I’m saying that Dawgs get their mojo back, beat Michigan and then we bury Bama in Indy with Stetson at the helm, just to piss off the doubters.

    Like

    • Derek

      The defensive performance we’d have to have to pull that off…

      It would be epic.

      Liked by 1 person

      • miltondawg

        I’m here for it…

        Like

      • Russ

        Just play the same defense we played the 12 other games, or the same defense a shitty Auburn team played. You act like they’re the ’85 Bears. This Bama team is flawed. They happened to play their perfect game while we played our worst. We also played out of character, going to zone, not getting pressure, etc. I believe the Dawgs were reading their press clippings and went into the SECCG expecting a coronation.

        They will play pissed off from here on out. I like our chances in a rematch.

        Liked by 1 person

  18. godawgs1701

    This is stupid. Alabama didn’t expose jack. Clemson exposed Georgia. Auburn exposed Georgia. Tennessee exposed Georgia. Anyone who was watching our team all year long knew that the secondary was leaky and vulnerable to long pass plays. I was terrified of it after watching guys run naked through the secondary in the first game and throughout the season. A bunch of teams dropped footballs that would have been big gains or touchdowns, but what it all actually came down to was that most teams weren’t good enough to stand up to our defensive front long enough to take advantage of our weakness in the secondary. Alabama was.

    Look, maybe Michigan beats Georgia. But Michigan is not Alabama. Full stop. They aren’t built like Alabama and in their ideal football game they aren’t trying to play offense the way Alabama does. Yeah, there are holes in our secondary. But what happened in the SEC Championship Game was about Alabama and less about Georgia. If Michigan wants to try to replicate what Alabama did to us… well, go for it I guess.

    Like

    • PTC DAWG

      Those 3 teams you say exposed UGA scored a combined 30 points..

      Liked by 1 person

      • godawgs1701

        Yes. They dropped passes that could have led to a lot of points in those games. They absolutely had men open and running free. If you came away with those games thinking that they dropped those balls because of something Georgia did and not the fact they weren’t all that great then we can certainly agree to disagree. The Georgia secondary was a liability all year long despite the fact it didn’t cost us too much. I saw it. Didn’t you?

        Like

    • PTC DAWG

      AU and UT combined for 46 on Bama.

      Liked by 1 person

  19. PTC DAWG

    The game is Friday evening..

    Liked by 2 people

  20. W Cobb Dawg

    Getting the coaches ‘mentally ready’ is my concern. We’ve arguably got the most talented team in the cfp. Are we going to be aggressive or passive? Are we going to turn Davis, Wyatt, Carter, Dean, Tindall, et. al. loose? Or are we going to be ‘feigning’ a pass rush, like we did against Young?

    Like

    • miltondawg

      Bama also has arguably the most talented team in the CFP. The lost a lot in the draft in 2021. But those consistent top 3 recruiting classes every year pile up with as much talent as Georgia.

      Like

  21. spur21

    They did it again

    Liked by 2 people

  22. Munsoning

    Agree. Kirby threw his D under the bus by abandoning what had worked so well all season: letting the front 7 eat. He needs to make it right with those guys by letting them eat in Miami. The Dawgs’ D should eat Michigan’s O alive. If that doesn’t happen, even if Georgia wins, I’m going to be tempted to think that they’ve lost confidence/trust in Kirby.

    Like

  23. Friday night we gonna see the Mad Dawg defense. Just you watch and see. I can’t wait.

    Like

  24. gotthepicture

    californiadawg and charlottedawgs touched on points- from different perspectives that I was gonna share. It’s a simple concept of don’t let last week’s loss beat you again this week. It was something I was thinking of after Bama lost to Texas A&M and I felt there were 2 ways to look at it:
    1) Now the Saban assistant can’t beat Saban narrative was over, but…
    2) Saban doesn’t often let lightning strike twice.

    Honestly, I thought Bama coming out of the Iron Bowl they way they did was horrible for us. I knew Saban could use that to refocus his team and have them ready because he’s done a darn good job of that. The ideal situation was to catch them on the week they weren’t focus and finish the job- something Auburn had, but couldn’t finish.

    After the SECCG, I started going through Saban’s record at Bama. After his first year, he got very good at not losing 2 in a row or 2 to the same team in back-to-back years. 2008 he lost the SECCG to Florida and then got upset by Utah. But the next year, the beat the piss out of Florida.
    In 2010, they lost 3 games to top 20 opponents (and 2 were very close losses & none were back-to-back), but destroyed their opponents the following weeks.

    In 2011, they lost to LSU in a close game (for the 2nd year in a row), but thrashed Miss St the next week and shutout LSU in the BSCCG (so they avenged that loss).

    In 2012, Johnny Football edged Bama, but Bama whipped the next 2 opponents- including Auburn. The next year, they beat Texas A&M.

    But in 2013, they did end the season with losses to #4 Auburn, who won the title (vomit in my mouth) & Oklahoma. This is what we need to avoid.

    I stopped at 2013 because I got tired thinking about Bama after reading so much grumbling on the Georgia boards. Maybe Dawgstats can pick up the torch. But my point is that it’s really, really hard to beat Bama after a loss. Saban does a good job of using it as a wake-up call for his teams. And if he has a year to prepare, he will adjust to what a team used to beat him the year before. So you really have to catch them off guard.

    Kirby did this with the loss to Auburn, followed by beating Tech and then whipping Auburn in the SECCG to launch Georgia’s playoff run. When he ups the record the week after losses, we’ll be in a better place. He can do it. Now it just needs to be consistent. Don’t let the last loss beat you again.

    Liked by 1 person