Run the damned ball, somebody.

One thing’s for sure about having your team in the CFP — you won’t lack for analysis to read.Β  Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve seen just about every take imaginable in the service of predicting a winner tonight.Β  As interesting as much of that has been, I keep circling back to the hoariest of college football’s pearls of wisdom; namely, the team that runs the ball and stops the run best, wins.Β  That’s how both Georgia and Michigan are built and sometimes the obvious take is the right one.

Okay, if that’s the starting point, how do you answer the question of which team pulls that off?Β  Here’s what Bill Connelly ($$) sees through the prism of advanced stats.

When Michigan has the ball on standard downs*:
Michigan’s run rate: 70% (13th highest in FBS)
Michigan’s success rate: 53% (25th)
Georgia’s success rate allowed: 37% (second)

When Georgia has the ball on standard downs:
Georgia’s run rate: 64% (29th)
Georgia’s success rate: 54% (15th)
Michigan’s success rate allowed: 42% (17th)

If you want the tl;dr commentary, “Michigan’s defense is obviously rock solid on standard downs, but this appears to be a more even matchup than Georgia’s edge when the Wolverines have the ball.”

If that actually holds true tonight, we probably won’t be bitching much about Stetson Bennett’s performance.Β  We shall see.



Filed under Big Ten Football, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

6 responses to “Run the damned ball, somebody.

  1. rigger92

    Lol, respectfully, β€œWe won’t be bitching much”? Considering recent history…..

    β€œWe” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there…………..

    Thanks for all the posts this week (and throughout the year). I hope we aren’t bitching too.

    Liked by 5 people

    • Down Island Way

      Trading field position and red zone success, UGA football can’t trade fg’s for td’s vs meeeeshigun in the 1st half…GO DAWGS!


  2. psyopdawg

    Everything said above would indicate that we have a slight edge based on defensive stats. And with the win it would give you a false sense of security about going into the next game with Stetson Bennett.


  3. ASEF

    I suspect Michigan regresses to the Harbaugh Mean and Ohio State was their season high point.


    • James A Mercer Jr

      Post game comments: Well, folks, the Mailman nailed it…even won the MVP for the game…along with a 34-11 win. Hit a 67 Yarder to Burton to get things really going…but must have been wind aided..he can’t throw long??? Can’t wait to really read the brilliant analysis of the usual suspects tomorrow.