Run the damned ball, somebody.

One thing’s for sure about having your team in the CFP — you won’t lack for analysis to read.  Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve seen just about every take imaginable in the service of predicting a winner tonight.  As interesting as much of that has been, I keep circling back to the hoariest of college football’s pearls of wisdom; namely, the team that runs the ball and stops the run best, wins.  That’s how both Georgia and Michigan are built and sometimes the obvious take is the right one.

Okay, if that’s the starting point, how do you answer the question of which team pulls that off?  Here’s what Bill Connelly ($$) sees through the prism of advanced stats.

When Michigan has the ball on standard downs*:
Michigan’s run rate: 70% (13th highest in FBS)
Michigan’s success rate: 53% (25th)
Georgia’s success rate allowed: 37% (second)

When Georgia has the ball on standard downs:
Georgia’s run rate: 64% (29th)
Georgia’s success rate: 54% (15th)
Michigan’s success rate allowed: 42% (17th)

If you want the tl;dr commentary, “Michigan’s defense is obviously rock solid on standard downs, but this appears to be a more even matchup than Georgia’s edge when the Wolverines have the ball.”

If that actually holds true tonight, we probably won’t be bitching much about Stetson Bennett’s performance.  We shall see.

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