Picking the over

Thought this to be kind of interesting…

The over is just 5-7-1 in Bama games this year, but it’s 3-2 when the Tide run the ball less than 38 percent of the time, as I think they will against Georgia. It is 6-8 in Georgia games, but 2-0 (by a combined 21 points) in the games when Dawgs QBs have thrown most often. With both teams slated to throw plenty, the over is the widest side to take.

I think all the talk about the great game Brian Robinson had against Cinci means little in a week.  ‘Bama didn’t waste much time attacking Georgia’s defensive front with the run in the SECCG and I don’t know why they’d change that in the rematch.  Georgia’s defensive liabilities lie elsewhere and Saban’s gonna probe that until Smart proves that strategy wrong.

16 Comments

Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Strategery And Mechanics, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

16 responses to “Picking the over

  1. PTC DAWG

    With the number sitting around 52..over seems like a no brainer to me. IF only Georgia would let us gamble legally on sports…

    https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

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  2. Russ

    Yeah, BRob won’t get over 75 yards in this game, and I doubt he’ll get much over 50. Partly because Bama needs to throw the ball to win, and partly because our run defense is much better than Cincy’s. Oh, and also because they’re going to be trailing in the game and need to throw to try to catch up.

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  3. Derek

    Robinson not being healthy on 12/4 was an issue for them for sure.

    If they think they can continue to beat our secondary it does make sense to pressure Stetson into getting out of his comfort zone and chasing and they do that by throwing it.

    I can’t decide if we should:

    play soft zone and refuse to get beat over the top like Cincy did. I know they got beat but 27 is a point total I can accept. That would be the Todd Bowles vs. KC approach.
    play aggressive and line everyone up within 2 yards of los and let Young figure out which 5 to 7 are coming. That would be the Derek Mason approach.

    OR

    do what we planned to do on 12/4 but just clean it up and play better?

    If you believe saban they didn’t necessarily plan to run more vs Cincy but thats what Cincy was giving them so they took it.

    My tendency is to think that once you’ve seen 1 and 7 and they can’t surprise you, you’ll clean things up the second time around.

    Not a huge sample size but the loser of the first one has won comfortably in the national title game twice:

    Fsu/UF
    Bama/Lsu

    I think those are the only two.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Russ

      Bama running on Cincy was a no-brainer. Both coaches knew that Cincy didn’t match up along the LOS. Satan could run the ball all day, move the clock along, drain any hope by Cincy and not show Georgia anything new. If Bama wanted to, they could have scored more, though Cincy’s defense did a good job of making Bryce Young uncomfortable.

      We need to pressure Young and make him uncomfortable. Risk the big play but also the possible reward of a turnover or quick 3 and out.

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    • Tim Edwards

      Not national title game, but Saban did school us twice in 2003. First in Baton Rouge and then the SEC Championship. The man is relentless.

      Liked by 1 person

      • charlottedawg

        Not national championships but in seccg where it’s a rematch from the regular season, the loser in the regular season is 2-5 in the rematch with the margin of defeat usually greater than in the regular season, 2017 and 2001 were the two wins (2001, saban led LSU defeated #2 Tennessee 31-20 after losing 26-18 in the regular season).

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  4. archmartyr

    Absolutely agree with taking the over. Alabama will put up 40+ by themselves so all Georgia needs to score is 10-14. Counting garbage time scoring when Alabama has it wrapped up I think Georgia will

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  5. David K

    I don’t care how we scheme it but if Jameson Williams is running free catching balls underneath in open space or running downfield behind our defenders we don’t have a chance. They don’t have Metchie and those two have got to be 75% or more of their passing offense. Find a way to take away Williamson and their explosive passing game, and I’m confident we can slow down their run game. If we hold them to 20 or 24 points we’ve got a shot.

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  6. theotherdoug

    I think Kirby commits to stopping the explosive passes and puts the emphasis there. The run defense is probably good enough without extra bodies to keep it a low scoring game.

    Asked another way, Can UGA score 40+ on Bama if they have to? Kirby can’t let Young have another big day.

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  7. uga97

    Bama running vs cinic was b/c they could, they could impose the will & get points burn clock, reduce QB & WR hits/injuries in prep for us & get outta there. For us Bama wants to throw all day on us & force Bennett into as many throws as possible.

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  8. originaluglydawg

    No matter what we say, Brian Robinson is a stud running back and has to be accounted for.
    It’s going to come down to two things (mostly).
    Can the Georgia O line protect SB and also run block to get our running game on a solid track?..
    Can the D get pressure on Young and still contain the running of BR?
    And for Bama..The Big O and George Pickens will be a factor you haven’t really seen. Monken’s going to open the play book with some quick stuff and some deep stuff.

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