How yummy is the rat poison this time?

Look, he’s the GOAT and I’m just some random fan with a blog, but I really wonder how much mileage Nick Saban can get out of the Vegas spread this go ’round.

“We’re still going to be underdogs in the game,” Saban said. “I can see why people would think that. It’s a challenge.”

The thing is, there’s a big difference between now and the week leading up to the SECCG.

Davis also pointed out that Bama’s underdog advantage isn’t emotional; it’s technical. It’s that Saban, perhaps more so than any other coach, can correct the shortcomings that made his team underdogs in the first place. “That’s where the real money lies,” Davis said.

It’s also why some former players questioned whether Monday’s rematch fits the Underdog Bama mold. In this case, it’s Georgia — led by a Saban disciple, Kirby Smart — who must make corrections, and respond to last month’s thumping. Some Tide alums wondered whether Bama’s 41-24 SEC title game victory would lure players into a false sense of security, and make a repeat tough.

That last sentence is complete bullshit — there’s no way a Saban-coached team heads into a national championship game with a false sense of security — but if anybody’s got to worry about correcting shortcomings, it’s Kirby Smart.

Or, to put it another way

Neither Johnson nor Jones bought into the idea beating a team twice adds difficulty to this dynamic for Alabama.

“Especially when you beat a team by 17,” Jones said. “I mean, it’s not like you just beat up by one point or on a last-second field goal. Alabama beat them pretty soundly there that first time and I do think that will give them some confidence going into this game.”

Of course it does.

I’m not being snarky here, but genuinely curious.  Betting line aside, there’s no general perception that Alabama comes in at some disadvantage Monday night, so how convincing is the rat poison going to be?

24 Comments

Filed under Nick Saban Rules

24 responses to “How yummy is the rat poison this time?

  1. piperga

    this is a few days old at this point, but i thought it was interesting that the large majority of the money and number of bets are being placed on bama. but, some of the larger bets are being placed for georgia, which has driven the betting lines.

    https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/32981024/notable-bets-georgia-alabama-opening-line-caused-move

    Liked by 1 person

  2. David K

    But the betting line is the perception. If it were a toss up too many people would bet on Georgia to win so Vegas has to even up the action. I don’t understand it. To me I can’t see how joe blow impartial bettor doesn’t lean toward Bama winning. Perhaps our red and black colored glasses are working against us in this case.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Derek

      I have a feeling that between the “sharps” and the guys betting on advice they are paying for, that vegas can’t ignore reality entirely. If vegas could exclude experts from betting (or advising) they’d probably have bama at -8 because that’s the public’s perception.

      Like

    • PTC DAWG

      The entire body of work is in play here, not just one game you didn’t like.

      Liked by 1 person

    • miltondawg

      If I were betting I would absolute bet Bama and the points in this situation if Georgia wasn’t the opponent (but said opponent had the same body of work, talent, etc.). I want to throat punch people who confidently say that it is really hard to be a team twice in the same season. Ask Utah who humiliated Oregon twice in a span of two weeks. If the SECCG had been a tight, close, one score game that came down to a last second field goal, a mental mistake, or not having a timeout because a team had to use it earlier for some reason, then maybe. This isn’t that situation. Georgia got run by Bama in the second quarter and at that point the game was essentially over.

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  3. Former Fan

    Reminds me of a few years ago when Auburn beat UGA and UGA stomped them in the championship game. This time, Metchie is out and UGA DBs are healed up a little better. Of course, the big question is… can UGA D get pressure on Bryce.

    Liked by 4 people

    • miltondawg

      Not unless the (i) Bama OL plays like it played averaging giving up a tick over three sacks a game in the regular season, or (ii) Georgia decides to do something other than use the LBs to bring additional pressure. If a team is having that 5th or 6th man pressure come from LBs, LB pressures are far easier for an OL to pick up than a safety or boundary CB blitz.

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  4. Down Island Way

    007 had the license to do what ever fitted the moment, little nicky has the license to say/do/act/function what ever to be and stay the head guy on the block till he decides other…GO DAWGS!

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  5. Hogbody Spradlin

    Saban will do what he can behind closed doors, but whatever is driving the betting line to favor Georgia, I don’t think it’s disrespect for Alabama.

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  6. Hogbody Spradlin

    Back in 74, N.C. State and UCLA were in the final four semis in Greensboro. Bill Walton vs. David Thompson. John Wooden candidly and admirably said it straight: “I want them to remember we beat them by ten on a neutral court in December.” I’m sure Saban is sending similar vibes through the pipeline.

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  7. Ran A

    Oh, I think it’s pretty clear that the team with something to prove is Georgia. Dawgs may get beat, but this time Alabama is going to see their best effort. Logic says that after losing 7 in a row, with the last two by 17, with identical scores, with the same QB – that we lose again.

    I don’t know why – just get the feeling that the Dawgs are going to win this game.

    Like

    • Logic wouldn’t say what you said, because logic would take into account the fact that these two teams have only played once.

      That “7 in a row” and “last 2 by 17” bullshit is emotion and surface-level analysis.

      Logic would look at all of the data surrounding the game and make an assessment based on the two teams this year, with an understanding that a single-game sample-size is an awful predictor.

      Liked by 2 people

    • 1smartdude

      I read a comment on Saturday Down South that made me think. Both teams should have motivation, one the disrespect card, the other the humiliation of the recent loss. The real motivation being it’s a NC game. Motivation should not be a factor for either team, the writer spoke of the one thing not really being talked about as much, at least not in Dawg circles, and that’s the pressure. The pressure of 7 in a row, the recent defeat and some other painful games. The pressure of 40 years without a title. He pointed to Stetson and Kirby and how they have struggled in the biggest games when the pressure took hold. It’s important to get a lead and keep the lead. When that doesn’t happen, the pressure seems to become one thing that derails everything. Whether it’s Stetson pressing or Kirby making some poor decisions. The KEY, get the lead and keep it. Sounds easy,eh?

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      • Russ

        We had a 10-0 lead, and then came back to tie it at 17-17 before the defense completed their collapse in the two ensuing drives to put us back down 31-17. If the defense gets some pressure on Young, the game turns out differently.

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  8. I was one who thought the SECCG result would be the opposite of what it turned out to be. I honestly believed Georgia would come in with a slick game plan and other-worldly execution, and finally not just beat Bama, but beat them convincingly.

    Instead we were treated to an embarrassment. One in which we looked out-coached in general (and especially quarters 2 and 3) and the defense broke no one’s will (in my humble opinion).

    I mean…. it wasn’t even close.

    After the 2020 Bama game and the 2021 Bama game, I’m left here scratching my head. I don’t know what to think. I guess I still think what I did right after the SECCG. At the time I thought I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan or Bama won the Natty — I’d only be surprised if either Georgia or Cincy won….

    So, let’s just say I’m hoping for a BIG surprise Monday night…. because what I’ve seen over the last two Bama-Georgia matchups (not to mention the previous FIVE) lead me to believe Saban’s just got ol’ Kirby’s number.

    Liked by 3 people

    • No intent here to make light of legitimate mental illness….

      But anyone else here feel like being “schizophrenic” is part of being a Dawg fan? Two hours ago I wrote the above, now I’m once again beginning to think maybe I believe the Dawgs are gonna whoop up on Bama in the re-match…. lol

      Liked by 1 person

  9. Gaskilldawg

    HB, I remember. I also remember NC State won the rematch. Same series of events would suit me fine.

    Liked by 2 people

  10. theotherdoug

    Saban is the GOAT, so I pay a lot of attention to what he pays a lot of attention to, and he is always focused on rat poison. He knows if his guys come out of the tunnel too confident they will lose. Is pointing at the spread enough? Nope, but it’s all he’s got.

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  11. truckerdawg

    You have evolved into far more than just a fan with a blog. You are one of the most reliable sources on UGA football even though you don’t have the paycheck to show for it. You are my only source and I appreciate all that you do for us.

    Liked by 7 people

  12. TripleB

    As far as rat poison is concerned, I see a big difference this time. I’m not hearing nearly as many pundits on radio, ESPN, SEC Network, etc. picking Georgia. Last time it was crazy. Example, Stinchcomb kept saying he thought UGA would win and it wouldn’t even be close. There was a lot of that going on. As a pessimist, I cringed when I heard all that talk going into the SEC Championship.

    This time I think Georgia and its fans (and the pundits) are a little less confident and boisterous. Will that matter, probably not, but maybe it makes the rat poison less “yummy.” Maybe that will factor into Bama’s fire?

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  13. Tommy Perkins

    Rat poison seems suspiciously close to fake juice. It’s got a half-life of maybe a drive or two, but pretty soon … we just playin’ football.

    Our last two games of the regular season were Charleston Southern and Georgia Tech, whom we beat by a combined 101-7 in a pair of games of zero consequence, as long as we won.

    The very next week, we get Bama for the SEC championship. Contrary to us, Bama was coming off a pair of dogfights against Arkansas and Auburn. That’s a hell of a step up in weight class over seven days if you’re Georgia.

    This time, Bama gets us with a little more hair on our chests.

    Liked by 3 people

  14. Russ

    I think we have all the motivation this time. No one is telling the Dawgs they’re going to kick Bama’s ass like before the SECCG. And I do think beating the same team twice will be hard for Bama. I’m cautiously optimistic.

    Liked by 2 people

  15. Leggo5

    Saban is the best and I’d be shocked if he didn’t get the team’s focus all week with this simple piece of Vegas point spread motivation / rat poison….

    “We won the national championship a year ago. We whipped their ass a month ago. And, YET, everybody still thinks they’re better than us!”

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  16. It won’t be the rat poison. When your players out-execute Bama, then you win. When you try to out-coach Nick, you lose. Harsin made that mistake and so does Kirby. Jimbo didn’t. Our players are better across the board this year. Young evens things up. So let ‘‘em play…it’s a tossup game anyway.

    Like