SEC Net YPP, final edition

Thought I’d spend one more post on my favorite stat and how the conference shaped up in that regard for the season, now that it’s in the books.

(As always, stats via cfbstats.com.)

  1. Georgia 2.83 (6.98 o; 4.15 d) [NC: -.56]
  2. Alabama 1.77 (6.54 o; 4.77 d) [NC:  -.25]
  3. Texas A&M 1.30 (5.96 o; 4.66 d) [DNP]
  4. Florida 1.12 (6.60 o; 5.48 d) [NC: -.12]
  5. Tennessee 1.04 (6.47 o; 5.43 d) [NC: -.24]
  6. Arkansas .97 (6.37 o; 5.40 d) [NC: -.03]
  7. Kentucky .89 (6.40 o; 5.51 d) [NC: -.23]
  8. Ole Miss .78 (6.29 o; 5.51 d) [NC:  -.24]
  9. Auburn:  .54 (5.81 o; 5.27 d) [NC:  -.10]
  10. Mississippi State .33 (5.89 o; 5.56 d) [NC: -.24]
  11. LSU -.12 (5.39 o; 5.51 d) [NC: -.07]
  12. South Carolina -.33 (5.30 o; 5.63 d) [NC: +.20]
  13. Missouri -.52 (5.86 o; 6.38 d) [NC: -.12]
  14. Vanderbilt -2.23 (4.52 o; 6.75 d) [DNP]

Turnover margin, after week six:

  • +9:  Ole Miss
  • +8:  Alabama
  • +5:  Arkansas
  • +4:  Georgia
  • +3:  Missouri, Tennessee
  •  0:  Auburn, South Carolina
  • -1:  Texas A&M
  • -2:  Mississippi State
  • -3:  LSU, Vanderbilt
  • -8:  Florida
  • -11:  Kentucky

Observations:

  • First of all, remember why I track net ypp“As a general rule of thumb based on the last four seasons, you’d better create a net YPP of 2+ if you want a realistic shot at the CFP (the four-team version, that is). And if you want to win, you’d better wind up north of 2.5.”  Georgia, and Georgia alone, did.
  • The net numbers back up two impressions I had from this season.  Pittman and Beamer did impressive coaching work.
  • But the coach who I think deserves the biggest tip of the hat is Stoops.  A ten-win season in this conference with a minus-eleven turnover margin?  That’s damned good work.  And as an added bonus, UK’s got regression to the mean to look forward to in 2022.
  • Mizzou’s numbers are bad, but LSU with a negative net ypp should never happen.
  • This makes two straight seasons of Junior’s team fading noticeably at season’s end, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise, given his roster limitations.
  • There’s no question which team wound up as the biggest underachiever, based on net ypp.  That would be Florida.

Your final thoughts?

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27 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

27 responses to “SEC Net YPP, final edition

  1. JuanSolo

    So. Damn. Impressive.

    Like

  2. The walk-on. No 1000 yard receiver or RB. “Can’t win that way, Kirby!”
    Yet Best offensive YPP. At least we have Bobo back to blame.

    Liked by 4 people

  3. I think you meant with a -11 turnover margin.

    Kentucky’s season could have gone off the rails with that kind of TO margin.

    Florida … just wow.

    Hey, Nick. I thought the game was just about outscoring people now, aight.

    South Carolina – you may have found someone who can lead your program.

    Vandy – now that we’ve annihilated you for canceling the game twice last year, you are no longer Candy.

    Liked by 1 person

    • RE: turnovers

      I did. Already corrected.

      Like

    • miltondawg

      UK is a weird case. A -11 TO margin would lead you to believe that they lost a lot more than three games in the regular season. Interestingly, their TO margin in two of their losses, Georgia and Tennessee, was 0 (neither team had a TO in the Georgia game, and both teams had 1 TO in the UT game). In their other loss to Mississippi State, their TO margin was -4 and predictably they lost by two touchdowns. Their non-conference cupcakes of UTC (-2), UL Monroe (-3), and New Mexico State (-2) I think that you have to chalk up to just having more talent. The South Carolina game was -3 for UK and had that game been played later in the year instead of September you have to wonder if UK would have pulled out that 16-10 win. Only two of their wins had a net 0 TO margin (UF and Vandy). Hard to believe that they got to 10 wins only having a net TO margin in the plus territory in three games (LSU, Louisville, and Iowa). As Senator pointed out, you have to think that if the trend of not taking care of the ball continues in 2022 UK won’t get back to 9 regular season wins. Like in the NFL when a team wins a significant portion of their close (see, Falcons 2021), one score games in one season you have to look a little side-eyed at their final record and not skew their win total out of proportion.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Spell Dawg

    Florida coulda/shoulda/woulda been better, the stars truly aligned for their suckage last year. If they would’ve just beaten Bama and all the rest stayed the same, dumbo Dan would still be our favorite smug asshole in Hogtown.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. MGW

    I’m surprised more top level transfers don’t go to programs like Stoops’ UK where there’s a solid talent base to support you, but not much top level talent to keep you from starting right away. They’ve got coaches who know what they’re doing and if you’re as good as you think you are, showing out in the SEC means the NFL knows you’re battle tested at the highest level.

    Liked by 4 people

  6. rigger92

    The .4 spread on O and the .6 on D are both remarkable. The D number is almost a full yard better than the whole league.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Russ

      Yeah, but just think how much better the offense could have been if only Kirby wasn’t so stubborn!

      Like

    • Down Island Way

      Bluto…your persistence on this particular stat has shown mine eyes the value/importance of that difference being in the 2.0 plus neighborhood, for those playing/winning the title/trophy

      Like

  7. This is awesome, a sobering slap to the face…my only belated Christmas wish would be for the FU fans to know how pathetically their team performed beyond the losing win/loss record of 6-7…if it would cause one more Hogtown hero to shred his jorts in anger…maybe they might say “ To sleep – perchance to dream: ay, there’s the rub…”

    Liked by 2 people

  8. charlottedawg

    For additional context, Georgia is #4 nationally in offensive ypp (Ohio State #1, 7.96) and #2 nationally in defensive ypp (Wisconsin #1 at 4.10). And as you can see from the senators data leads the sec in both categories. Damn.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. The slight difference in YPP in the title game probably gets BAMA another championship if it swings in the other direction. They kicked a few 4th and short FGs, if memory serves.

    Just saying.

    Go Dawgs

    Like

  10. SoCalDawg

    Assuming TO margin “after week six” is actually full year, or is it “week six” after end of regular season?

    Like

  11. SoCalDawg

    Also, I LOVE net ypp. I obsess over it when looking at all matchups on Saturday mornings. Thanks for turning us on to it Senator.

    Liked by 2 people

  12. PTC DAWG

    And there it is. Best in the SEC. Both sides of the ball.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. ciddawg

    PAAAWWLL!!! Did Gawga finally play some buddy???

    Liked by 1 person

  14. olddawg22

    One measure of dominance I have not seen mentioned UGA played 60 quarters of football we were out scored by more than 3 points 3 times all season. Two, of coarse were in the boat racing we received in the second qtr and first play of the 3rd qtr of the SECCG. Other than that the third was a meaningless 4th qtr touchdown by SC that went unanswered. 9 games we didn’t lose a quarter, the Orange Bowl where we were out scored by 1 point in the 4th qtr of a game that was long over ( and I agree our best overall game of the year)! What consistency game after game, even down to the quarters! It was a true joy watching this team just come out hungrier than the other team and impose their will on both sides of the ball!
    DAWG LEGENDS!

    Liked by 3 people