Daily Archives: February 23, 2022

Luke’s legacy?

I’m just curious what the general impression around here is about Matt Luke’s two-year stint in Athens.

If there’s one complaint I had, it was about sticking with Ericson at right guard and appearing a little hesitant to move Salyer inside, but, admittedly, I didn’t see what the coaches saw in practice regarding whether or not Jones was ready to be plugged in at left tackle.  (That being said, I thought he handled himself well in the national championship game.)

But there were plenty of pluses, too.  Perhaps the biggest one was timing.  Nobody expected Pittman would be offered a head coaching job and it was fortuitous that Luke happened to be available right when Kirby needed a replacement.  And judging by this, there really wasn’t much of a drop off in production, if at all.

That came despite a significant change in scheme between the two position coaches.  Georgia liked pulling o-linemen more under Luke, while Pittman’s lines were more about road grading.  That change called for different physical characteristics, too.  I do wonder how much better the o-line might have been this past season had Ratledge not been lost for the season; at G-Day, he appeared to be the most polished lineman when it came to pulling.

Also, Luke finished the drill on the recruiting front in the wake of Pittman’s departure, hanging on to Jones and Mims.  He also deserves credit for Van Pran’s development at center this season.

All in all, it’s a solid resume, solid enough that I’m a little surprised at some of the sentiment I’ve seen cropping up on social media after Luke’s announcement that he was a bit of a disappointment.  What do y’all think?



Filed under Georgia Football

Human nature and the transfer portal

You’ll find an impressive job of numbers crunching at this link.

The NCAA CFB Transfer Portal has been around since 2018. Over the past four seasons, thousands of FBS players have entered the portal and transferred programs. Even with the complicating factors of COVID and NIL, enough data has been collected over the past four seasons to characterize the types of recruits that are most likely to transfer. Below I’ll present the first part of my findings. Overall, I found the results of this effort to be intuitive. In this first portal data dive I have mainly focused on characterizing recruit properties that seem to lead to higher rates of transfer (i.e., we will ignore their specific collegiate history for now).

What the numbers show really isn’t all that surprising, when you think about it.

Results from this analysis are largely intuitive. Players seem to use the transfer portal to find playing time. When programs recruit many talented players, they increase competition for playing time and will suffer from higher transfer rates. Players who transfer tend to seek out playing time by moving down in competition level. In general, higher rated recruits are more likely to transfer, however 5-star recruits break this trend and transfer at a slightly lower rate. Skill position players tend to transfer at a higher rate than trench players. This may reflect that many skill position players enter college with the physical tools and expectation of early playing time.

The Southeast and Northeast parts of the US seem to have higher rates of transfer than the Pacific and Midwest. Recruits that go to school far from home also seem more likely to transfer. While coaching transitions may encourage transfers to the highest rates, coaching stability does not appear to guarantee that high rates of transfer will be avoided. Most FBS programs can expect to lose 4-6% of a recruiting class every season to the portal.

Bottom line, when every four- and five-star kid signing with a high-profile program claims they’re not scared of competition, they probably mean it.  It’s just that after reality intrudes and the competition wins out, they’re not going to stick around.  A-portaling they will go.

Oh, as an aside, I found this chart amusing, to say the least.

On a percentage basis, Mullen lost more players to the portal than Smart did.  If he hadn’t been canned, I’d have had to seriously consider revoking his portal master license.


Filed under Transfers Are For Coaches.

TFW those jersey bets are a bitch


Filed under Georgia Football