Vegas and the opening set of ’22 SECCG odds

Here they are:

Opening odds to win the SEC football championship per @betonline_ag pic.twitter.com/FPRCDIil0l

— Dave Matter (@Dave_Matter) May 9, 2022

I don’t get Arkansas and Auburn being on the same level, but other than that, it strikes me as being a reasonable projection.  What say y’all?

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Now go away or I shall sue you a second time.

Boy, this is cocky ($$).

The news coming out of last week’s Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 spring meetings was the NCAA’s impending attempt to crack down on schools’ boosters using NIL payments to land recruits…

Sports agent Russell Smith, whose Utah-based firm Oncoor Athlete Marketing represents around 80 college athletes, had this reaction: “I think it’s adorable that the NCAA is acting as if they’re going to crack down on anything.”

“Adorable”?  That’s “your mother smells of elderberries”-level smack talk.  Not that the NCAA hasn’t earned it.

The sack master who didn’t sack

So, one thing that suddenly struck me after watching the national championship replay for the umpteenth time was the absence of a name during Georgia’s fourth quarter scoring spree.  No, I’m not talking about Metchie or Williams.

I’m talking about Will Anderson.

Dial up the clip of the game to about the 2:19 mark and watch the line play on Georgia’s two offensive scoring drives.  Both tackles stone Anderson, repeatedly.  Monken makes more of an effort to run plays away from Anderson’s side of the field (much like he did in the Michigan game).  And the only time the announcers mention Anderson’s name is to remark that he could have been called for a late hit on Bennett.  He’s pretty much a non-entity.

It’s a stunning turnaround from the start of the game, when he appeared to be shutting down Georgia’s offense on his own.  It’s also a big reason why Georgia managed to score more touchdowns over a six-minute stretch than ‘Bama did during the entire game, with or without Williams.

By the way, in case you forgot, both Jones and McClendon are back this season.

Soaring Gators

If you haven’t heard, the Gators had a huge recruiting weekend.  Huge.

Florida football and head coach Billy Napier had quite a great Saturday. They landed two commits from four-star offensive tackle Knijeah Harris and four-star athlete Creed Whittemore, the younger brother of current receiver Trent Whittemore. UF entered Saturday at No. 53 in the 247Sports team recruiting rankings but emerged at No. 34 after the commitments.

They currently hold four verbal commitments in their 2023 recruiting class from Harris, Whittemore as well as four-star athlete Aaron Gates and three-star wide receiver Tyree Patterson. Florida currently sits just behind the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Gators fans shouldn’t panic at their team ranking just yet because it is still just May and realize their team only has four pledges. Looking at all the teams ahead of Florida, the Crimson Tide is the only program to hold fewer commits with three while LSU, Clemson and Oklahoma have four, too.

If fans want to make judgments about the Gators’ class, they should look at the average recruits’ ranking, which sits at 88.82. That number currently ranks 16th best out of all the programs ahead of them.

Sixteenth, mofos!  Judge that.

Sounds awesome (well, for Florida, maybe), until you take a peek at the current SEC recruiting numbers over at the 247Sports Composite, where you will discover nine programs with better averages.  Including Auburn, with a head coach on life support.

Technically speaking, you can say Florida is closing the recruiting gap between itself and Georgia.  After all, Georgia remains mired in first place.

The law of intended consequences

So, you’ve got a bunch of lazy coaches who can’t keep their roster numbers up to Alabama/Georgia levels because of the transfer portal… and their preferred solution to the problem is to change one of the few limits in place to keep Saban and Smart from running completely roughshod over recruiting.

Few guardrails promote parity in college football.

There’s no salary cap, no player draft, and admitting just 3% of FBS programs into the College Football Playoff each year makes it difficult for those outside the sport’s innermost circle to ascend.

Basically, two parameters promote any semblance of parity:

• Limiting rosters to 85 scholarship players
• The 25-player limit on signing classes, a figure that accounts for high school recruits plus transfers

Working together, those guardrails keep the best programs from acquiring an endless bounty of top talent.

However, college football decision-makers are considering tearing down the latter guardrail, a move that should help recruiting elites like Alabama, Georgia and increasingly Texas A&M stockpile a deeper volume of inbound talent.

Athlon Sports reported this week that the NCAA Division I Council is expected to vote later this month to eliminate the 25-player signing cap for at least the next two years. This change would not eliminate the overall limit of 85 scholarship players.

I mean, what could possibly go wrong?

Now envision a scenario in which the guardrail limiting a program’s amount of newcomers is removed.

What’s to stop Alabama from signing 30 of the top high school prospects and adding 10 of the best available transfers?

Texas A&M has been quiet in the transfer market and instead used most of its spots on high school recruits. Its 30-man signing class this year ranks as the top-rated in the history of the 247Sports Composite. The Aggies inked 27 five- or four-star prospects. Tear down the guardrails, and the Aggies may assemble 37 five- or four-star prospects.

But, if the elites add 40 of the best available newcomers every year instead of 25, won’t they exceed the overall limit of 85 scholarships?

Not necessarily.

The 25-player signing limit dissuades coaches from running older players off the roster. If that guardrail is removed, what’s to stop a coach from adding 40 newcomers per year, and then after a year in the system, retain the best 15 to 20 and run off the rest, allowing room to add another 40 newcomers without exceeding the 85 scholarship cap?

So, to review: Eliminating the 25-player signing cap would be designed to combat roster holes created by the increased rate of transfers and attrition. However, removing that signing cap limit further encourages transfers and attrition.

Nick Saban thanks you, fellow coaches.

I wrote “intended consequences” in the header, because we’ve already seen a partial trial run this year.

We received a sneak peak at what removing the 25-man guardrail will do, because this year, programs had been allowed to add up to 32 newcomers, as they adjust to the new transfer landscape.

So, Alabama signed a 25-man recruiting class that ranked No. 2 nationally. Then, the Tide grabbed five of the top available transfers, and it has room for a couple more.

These people will be back in three years, promoting a solution to fix the mess they just created.