Here they are:
Opening odds to win the SEC football championship per @betonline_ag pic.twitter.com/FPRCDIil0l
— Dave Matter (@Dave_Matter) May 9, 2022
I don’t get Arkansas and Auburn being on the same level, but other than that, it strikes me as being a reasonable projection. What say y’all?
Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas
“We remember the Sugar Bowl, I think it my junior year of high school, we let Alabama beat us twice,” Brinson said of a team that also lost to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship game. “We’re not letting Alabama beat us twice. In the Sugar Bowl in 2018, they… thought they should have been in the playoffs and lost to Texas.” -- AB-H, 12/27/23
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That much of a gap from Georgia to A&M is a big slap in Jimbo Fisher’s face.
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Dumbo or Dimbo … FIFY
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It was a great class, but they’re still in high school. I expect they’ll have far better odds over the next two years.
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Also, don’t be surprised if key members of that class are playing in the SECCG for Kirby or Saban in 2023-2024 as they look to upgrade their million-dollar NIL deals to multi-million dollar NFL deals.
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FU being that much ahead of Arkansas is a frakking joke.
Arkansas is right now, the most likely team to finish second in the West. TAMU lost so much and they’re another year away from contending because that freshman class ain’t all playing this season, and if they do, it’ll be a bumpy ride.
Everyone’s sleeping on Arkansas. It would be good to put a couple hundred you won’t miss down on them winning the West this season. I mean, without Metchie and Williams, what kind of chance do the Gumps have, anyway? 😉
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No, it’s a reflection of the divisions they’re in.
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I get that… but in looking at that division, and looking at their schedule, don’t you agree that the media is severely sleeping on Arkansas especially considering what they have coming back on offense and defense? Yeah, they lose their best WR, but Pittman has done a great job with their recruiting machine and they got a WR in the portal.
When I see the media has them right at 8-4, I don’t get it. I look at that team, and I look at what TAMU actually lost off a team that did go 8-4 and I look at LSU which I have to admit next season Kelly will probably have contending and I’m thinking, Arkansas is second best in the West. That’s purely rational thinking.
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Eh, I’m not one to bet against Pittman after his first two seasons, and Arky does have an advantage over the other two in that they’re the only one with a returning starter, but they’re significantly weaker than both LSU and TAMU on the defensive side of the ball.
So, no, I don’t see them as second best in the West.
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Looking at the Hawgs losses last year tells me they’ve got to get much better on D. I like how they gave Bama all the Tide could handle in Tuscaloosa. Can they maintain that intensity for twelve games?
We gon see.
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The problem for everyone who isn’t UGA or Bama is that they have to go 7-1 (or better) and beat one of those two teams during the season. Even if one of those 12 can “slay the dragon” can they go 6-1 in their other 7 SEC games? Hard to fucking do. And even then, they’ve got to beat Alabama or Georgia to win the trophy.
As such, the listed odds for A&M on down are a joke.
Maybe in 2023 some other team will be capable of pulling it off, but I can’t see it in 2022. Getting to ATL would be huge deal for any of the bottom 12. Doing that AND winning in ATL? Nope. Not happening.
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I agree, but in a power ranking I’d swap LSU and KY with FL and OleMiss.
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If there’s a 1/1 team in a division, mathematically speaking, every other team in that division must have extremely long odds.
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Seems pretty reasonable to me at the top. UGA and Bama are the clear class of the league, and they are separated by divisions and don’t play each other in the regular season.
The playoff question will be that the winner is in and the loser probably needs some chaos across the other leagues if the SECCG loser has only 1 loss.
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If I could scrounge up $1 million, I’d happily bet it against Vandy for a cool $2,000 payday.
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In the top half of the list, Tennessee seems a bit low, and Auburn and (especially) Florida are a bit high, but we’ll whip the dogshit out of all of them this year, so it’s a happy thought exercise more than anything. As far as the bottom of the list goes, once you get past the 50/1 mark, they’re all pretty well interchangeable in my mind except Vandy.
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All I can say is that it must be nice to run a sports book.
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The Dawgs and Bama are right where past performance would indicate future results. I’m not so sure about that. I really believe Kirby has raised the bar on Defense and Monken is going to show out on Offense. Every season the Dawgs erase more of the noticeable mistakes of the previous years. It paid off with an ass whoopn of Bama in January. Lessons learned in a month instead of a year.
The rest of the pack?
Fuck ‘em.
Big Dawgs don’t concern themselves with puppies pissing.
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My only question is …. does Ole Miss really have that much of a greater chance of winning the West than Mississippi State?
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I would probably have The Chickens ahead of AWBARN as well.
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UF can barely field a football team right now. Not sure how they constantly project better than UK and UT on Vegas odds and experts’ preseason rankings.
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Seems about right since Bama and Georgia would most likely have to go through the other one. 44.4% implied probability for Georgia and 50% implied probability for Bama. Very little value in those bets. I would guess that if you could get a book to take it, a bet of Georgia or Bama to win the SEC would be something like 1/4 or 1/5 odds (maybe even a bit higher) since it would require a West team to get past Bama and likely beat Georgia in Atlanta or an East team to get past Georgia and likely beat Bama in Atlanta.
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Yeah, like Derek points out above, the bet is just dumb. Outside of the top 2 favorites, who do you see that could be justifiably considered to go 8-0 in conference play? At this time, anyway.
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I don’t know what goes into setting odds specifically, although I understand that they are designed to lure bettors. And I don’t mean the people who make a living gambling, I mean the people who think they can game the system. In my mind many of those people go off of tradition. That’s just the only way for me to explain the relative positions of Auburn, Florida, etc.
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Let me go tend to my coals and refresh my drink…
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Something something Spencer Rattler
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