Updated SP+ projections for 2022

Here’s Bill C.’s latest:

It’s the Big Three and everybody else.

Man, SP+ sure loves the Vols.  (And Mississippi State.)  And, with nine teams in the top 25, the SEC.

You know one other thing SP+ loves?  Georgia’s offense, which is essentially tied with Alabama’s.  That’s what happens when you lose Metchie and Williams, I suppose.

One significant caveat that Connelly brings up at the end of his piece, in talking about the rankings for LSU (36th) and USC (53rd):

Once we have dealt with a couple of years of evidence in how teams loading up on transfers change their ratings from year to year, I will get a pretty good idea of how to account for this in the projections. This is a very new phenomenon, however, and I don’t want to overreact in how I account for this, so for now we’re just going to have a couple of weird outliers.

28 Comments

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28 responses to “Updated SP+ projections for 2022

  1. Any ranking that has Michigan remotely close to Georgia isn’t worth anything. I know Bill C is supposed to be the best analytics guy out there, but the video from December 31, 2021 speaks loudly for the talent gulf between the two programs.

    Liked by 2 people

    • First off, seven points isn’t close, even remotely.

      Second, 2021 is over.

      Liked by 4 people

      • True … I’m just not convinced Michigan is back. They beat Ohio State in the worst weather imaginable … it was a perfect storm for Michigan to take advantage of. I guess at its core, these computer rankings before a game are about as useful as the preseason polls.

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        • biggusrickus

          The model projects them to lose by about ten points to Ohio State. I guess it depends on how one defines “back”. I think they’re probably a top 10 team. If McCarthy lives up to his potential, I could see them giving Ohio State a run.

          Liked by 1 person

        • MGW

          These numbers, like Vegas, are often wrong on a game to game basis. But that’s not really the point. Do yourself a favor and read up on SP+ a little.

          Bill C is crystal clear that these are far less reliable preseason. As the season progresses they get stronger and stronger because the data is more and more reliable.

          Anything can happen in one game, but SP+ is very useful for seeing who’s better and worse than their record or competition indicate. It also regularly goes far better than .500 against the spread over the season; ranking neck and neck with the best paid services.

          Liked by 2 people

      • As of the morning, we are still National Champions. 2021 ain’t over.

        Liked by 4 people

  2. I went back and looked up the Top 5 from August 2021:

    Alabama – Off (3) – Def (3)
    Clemson – Off (5) – Def (4)
    Oklahoma – Off (2) – Def (15)
    Ohio State – Off (1) – Def (27)
    Georgia – Off (16) – Def (5)

    https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/2021/08/12/updated-sp-rankings/

    A few things jump out at me….
    – Clemson’s offensive ranking has dropped from #5 to #39
    – Georgia’s offensive ranking has moved up from #16 to #3
    – Georgia’s defensive ranking has only dropped from #5 to #7

    Liked by 1 person

  3. practicaldawg

    It will be mind numbing to see how many complex algorithms people devise to predict the same 3 teams at the top during the pre-season.

    Liked by 4 people

  4. Dylan Dreyer's Booty

    If SP+ was what won games we wouldn’t get to play the games. Also, maybe I don’t understand, but 41.8 (Al) and 41.8 (Ga) are not essentially equal; they are actually equal. If you are going to use a stat, use it; don’t put your thumb on one scale on a whim.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Gaskilldawg

      I wondered if the calculations were to 2 decimal points and both rounded to 1 decimal points with AL being slightly higher using 2 decimal points.

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  5. timphd

    Florida at 23? Behind even Auburn? Please tell me this is true!

    Liked by 2 people

  6. I was wondering how the portal and transfers impact SP…with it changing so quickly…the answer is the nerds are figuring it out…the top 3 are very close…hopefully we stay healthy and focus and bolt out of the gate stomping Ducks into submission.

    Liked by 4 people

    • biggusrickus

      I’m not sure there’s a good way to factor them in. It’s a fairly small cohort of players, and which ones are going to have huge impacts isn’t an easily predictable thing. Who would have expected Walker to completely turn around the Michigan State offense, for example? For that matter, how would you predict Jameson Williams to go from 9 catches to 79?

      Liked by 2 people

      • Exactly…especially preseason when no one has taken a snap yet…imagine putting a high premium on like a transfer like a Tate Martell only for that transfer to tank the numbers later on…but it’s talkin’ season

        Liked by 2 people

  7. MGW

    Not a lot of math guys around here…

    Liked by 3 people

  8. If that is the 12 team playoff list, some observations:

    SEC gets four teams which makes Sankey happy but UGA and Bama fans asking why they have to beat a team twice. 3 Big X asking the same question. Clemson and ND. One Pac12, Big 12 and Group of 5 each. That would really dilute the SECCG and Big X CG and Big X regular season key matchups. You playoff proponents need to explain the “joy” in that scenario to me.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. jim1886

    It will be interesting to see where USC ends up, given they are not listed.
    Riley wanted no part of the SEC

    Liked by 1 person

    • RangerRuss

      Hell Jim, even I would trade the left coast for Oklafucknhoma. Avoiding the brutality of the SEC is just crack in the skleef.

      Liked by 1 person

  10. uga97

    Warned about Miss State a while ago. That game will be more concern more than the Vols, since their D is way better than UTs. On that note, Will Rogers was #1 QB in CFB red zone passing TDs last year (26) over Bryce Young & Kenny Pickett, so not only can he push ball down field but he can thread needles in tight coverage.

    Like