SEC win totals, 2022 edition

Clark Brooks filters the SEC schedules through Bill Connelly’s SP+ and ESPN’s FPI.  It’s a pretty interesting exercise.  Here’s how things look, presented in the order of Vegas’ over/under for win totals:

  • Georgia.  SP+ wins: 12.0, FPI wins: 11.6
  • Alabama.  SP+ wins: 12.0, FPI wins: 11.3
  • Texas A&M.  SP+ wins: 10.5, FPI wins: 7.5
  • Ole Miss.  SP+ wins: 10.0, FPI wins: 7.7
  • Tennessee.  SP+ wins: 10.0, FPI wins: 7.0
  • Kentucky.  SP+ wins: 8.0, FPI wins: 8.0
  • Mississippi State.  SP+ wins: 7.5, FPI wins: 6.4
  • Florida.  SP+ wins: 7.5, FPI wins: 7.1
  • Auburn.  SP+ wins: 7.0, FPI wins: 11.6
  • Arkansas.  SP+ wins: 6.0, FPI wins: 6.5
  • South Carolina.  SP+ wins: 5.0, FPI wins: 5.9
  • LSU.  SP+ wins: 3.0, FPI wins: 7.7
  • Missouri.  SP+ wins: 4.0, FPI wins: 5.6
  • Vanderbilt.  SP+ wins: 2.0, FPI wins: 3.0

And here’s how the conference’s strength of schedule stacks up, from toughest to easiest:

  1. Auburn
  2. Arkansas
  3. LSU
  4. Mississippi State
  5. Vanderbilt
  6. Texas A&M
  7. Florida
  8. South Carolina
  9. Kentucky
  10. Ole Miss
  11. Georgia
  12. Alabama
  13. Tennessee
  14. Missouri

Thoughts and observations:

  • Combine it all, and the number that really sticks out like a sore thumb is FPI’s win projection for Auburn, which is tied for tops in the league, despite the Tigers playing a much tougher schedule than Georgia or Alabama.  If Harsin wins 11 games this season, Auburn’s in the SECCG and the school will likely fashion another really stupid coaching contract as a result.
  • Boy, that SP+ win total for LSU.  The good news is there are a lot of one-score results there and Kelly’s a good enough coach to swing some of those games his way.
  • “This time last year, some folks figured the Gators owned the best offensive schemer in the conference, a future top 10 QB, and a defense full of athletes capable of propelling a consecutive trip to Atlanta.”  Yeah, and how did that work out for ’em?
  • If there’s a reason to think Arkansas won’t over perform, it’s the schedule difficulty.  But I thought that last year, too.
  • I don’t know how Missouri manages to keep scheduling one of the conference’s softest slates year after year, but they do.  Not that either SP+ or FPI seems much impressed by that.
  • Nothing like being the two best teams in the conference with two of its easier schedules, amirite?

By the way, I can’t resist bringing to your attention Erik Evans’ take on conference scheduling this season, which is nicely summed up in one sentence:  “Look, I’m not saying the SEC is desperately trying to schedule Florida, A&M, and Georgia into relevance…but I’m not not saying that either.”  Imagine suggesting that the SEC has to schedule the defending national champs into relevance!  The dude is into some serious tin foil hat territory.



Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

21 responses to “SEC win totals, 2022 edition

  1. chopdawg

    “Look, I’m not saying the SEC is desperately trying to schedule Florida, A&M, and Georgia into relevance…but I’m not not saying that either.”

    Then what exactly ARE you saying? (Gawd, the BS that passes for sportswriting these days.)

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Kirby Smart needs to start charging Evans for using his own brain. Kirbs owns that head now, and it’s spacious and empty.


  3. Dawg93

    I think his Auburn win total per FPI is an error. This says 7.4 wins:

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Ran A

    Only thing that really stuck out to me is that Auburn has the toughest schedule and UTjr. is 13th. They both play the Dawgs and Tide. Is UTjr.’s schedule that weak or is the grouping a lot tighter than the rankings make it look?


    • originaluglydawg

      Had the exact same thought and question.


      • biggusrickus

        According to FPI, the national rankings for SEC schedules are:

        1) Auburn
        2) Mississippi State
        4) Vanderbilt
        5) Tennessee
        6) Alabama
        7) Texas A&M
        8) South Carolina
        9) LSU
        13) Arkansas
        15) Florida
        17) Ole Miss
        25) Missouri
        26) Georgia
        36) Kentucky

        I’m assuming he’s using SP+ for the SOS, but for some reason I can’t get to his page. Given the discrepancy between the order of the rankings, I’d say it’s a lot closer than the rankings indicate, as you suggested.


  5. biggusrickus

    Part of the reason Georgia and Alabama have easier schedules is because they don’t have to play Georgia and/or Alabama. At the moment, the conference outside of those top two isn’t really anything to write home about. We’ll see if someone takes a legitimate step forward this year.

    Liked by 10 people

  6. Tony BarnFart

    “I don’t know how Missouri is in this conference.”

    Liked by 1 person

  7. I’ve said this before in comments here…. I always get the feeling that the pre-season forecast of Georgia’s SOS is always easier than how it ends the season.

    Does anyone know if this is tracked anywhere? Comparing pre-season SOS rankings to post-season? I’d sure be interested to look at how Georgia’s comparisons looked over the last 20 seasons or so…. or at least since CKS has been at the helm.


  8. theotherdoug

    We better pay attention to Mississippi State.

    Liked by 3 people

  9. Russ

    Looking forward to the cost of each of those 8 Aggie wins this season.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Harold Miller

    Once again. What a tool!


  11. D.N. Nation

    The hell is he talking about? UGA plays Auburn every year and the other West team they get in 2022 is 1) good; and 2) a road game. Aside from that, it’s the East, which Georgia is contractually obligated to play, you dingus.


  12. Our SOS does not take into account that we will always get the other team’s best shot.

    Liked by 4 people

  13. The analysis by Clark is interesting and pretty spot on. I wouldn’t sleep on LSU this year, especially in a west spoiler role…we will see if Kelly is as good a coach as his resume says he is.

    Erik just writes to appease the Gumps living in the back of the trailer park, you know, where the “good” meth is.

    Liked by 1 person

    • As I recall, we have seen ND HC applicants “stretch” their resumes in the past…so there’s that

      Liked by 1 person

    • RangerRuss

      A captive tweaker squirrel named Deez Nutz. Fuckn genius. I reckon shooting the bastards simply ain’t enough entertainment for some folks. Of course Alafucknbama doesn’t have exclusive rights to bored country boy antics. Brian Hunt used to cut up blotter acid and feed it to his chickens.

      Liked by 2 people

  14. whb209

    strength of schedule.. GA #11
    are you sure about that? Seems to be more in the #6 or #7 range to me. I hope we do have the #11 toughest path. It does not matter, when we go undefeated every writer will say, “you ain’t played nobody”. If we have the #1 SOS or the #14, they will say the same thing.