SEC win totals, 2022 edition

Clark Brooks filters the SEC schedules through Bill Connelly’s SP+ and ESPN’s FPI.  It’s a pretty interesting exercise.  Here’s how things look, presented in the order of Vegas’ over/under for win totals:

• Georgia.  SP+ wins: 12.0, FPI wins: 11.6
• Alabama.  SP+ wins: 12.0, FPI wins: 11.3
• Texas A&M.  SP+ wins: 10.5, FPI wins: 7.5
• Ole Miss.  SP+ wins: 10.0, FPI wins: 7.7
• Tennessee.  SP+ wins: 10.0, FPI wins: 7.0
• Kentucky.  SP+ wins: 8.0, FPI wins: 8.0
• Mississippi State.  SP+ wins: 7.5, FPI wins: 6.4
• Florida.  SP+ wins: 7.5, FPI wins: 7.1
• Auburn.  SP+ wins: 7.0, FPI wins: 11.6
• Arkansas.  SP+ wins: 6.0, FPI wins: 6.5
• South Carolina.  SP+ wins: 5.0, FPI wins: 5.9
• LSU.  SP+ wins: 3.0, FPI wins: 7.7
• Missouri.  SP+ wins: 4.0, FPI wins: 5.6
• Vanderbilt.  SP+ wins: 2.0, FPI wins: 3.0

And here’s how the conference’s strength of schedule stacks up, from toughest to easiest:

1. Auburn
2. Arkansas
3. LSU
4. Mississippi State
5. Vanderbilt
6. Texas A&M
7. Florida
8. South Carolina
9. Kentucky
10. Ole Miss
11. Georgia
12. Alabama
13. Tennessee
14. Missouri

Thoughts and observations:

• Combine it all, and the number that really sticks out like a sore thumb is FPI’s win projection for Auburn, which is tied for tops in the league, despite the Tigers playing a much tougher schedule than Georgia or Alabama.  If Harsin wins 11 games this season, Auburn’s in the SECCG and the school will likely fashion another really stupid coaching contract as a result.
• Boy, that SP+ win total for LSU.  The good news is there are a lot of one-score results there and Kelly’s a good enough coach to swing some of those games his way.
• “This time last year, some folks figured the Gators owned the best offensive schemer in the conference, a future top 10 QB, and a defense full of athletes capable of propelling a consecutive trip to Atlanta.”  Yeah, and how did that work out for ’em?
• If there’s a reason to think Arkansas won’t over perform, it’s the schedule difficulty.  But I thought that last year, too.
• I don’t know how Missouri manages to keep scheduling one of the conference’s softest slates year after year, but they do.  Not that either SP+ or FPI seems much impressed by that.
• Nothing like being the two best teams in the conference with two of its easier schedules, amirite?

By the way, I can’t resist bringing to your attention Erik Evans’ take on conference scheduling this season, which is nicely summed up in one sentence:  “Look, I’m not saying the SEC is desperately trying to schedule Florida, A&M, and Georgia into relevance…but I’m not not saying that either.”  Imagine suggesting that the SEC has to schedule the defending national champs into relevance!  The dude is into some serious tin foil hat territory.

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