Phil Steele tracks something he calls Draft Day Party Hangover, which sounds like something you’d expect — teams that have more players drafted by the NFL after a given season have a marked tendency to do as well the following season.
His metric works as follows: he assigns a team 7 points for every player it has that goes in the first round of the draft, 6 points for second round selections, etc. Over the past 25 years, teams with 12 or more points have a 73.4% chance of having a weaker or the same record the next season. For teams with 24 or more points, it’s an 80.2% chance. And for teams with 35 or more points, it’s 75%.
That does look a little bell curvy there, but I digress.
There is only one team going into the ’22 season that qualified for Steele’s top category. You only get one guess as to which team that is.
You must be logged in to post a comment.