Phil Steele tracks something he calls Draft Day Party Hangover, which sounds like something you’d expect — teams that have more players drafted by the NFL after a given season have a marked tendency to do as well the following season.
His metric works as follows: he assigns a team 7 points for every player it has that goes in the first round of the draft, 6 points for second round selections, etc. Over the past 25 years, teams with 12 or more points have a 73.4% chance of having a weaker or the same record the next season. For teams with 24 or more points, it’s an 80.2% chance. And for teams with 35 or more points, it’s 75%.
That does look a little bell curvy there, but I digress.
There is only one team going into the ’22 season that qualified for Steele’s top category. You only get one guess as to which team that is.
Get The Picture 
Maybe it’s because I haven’t had coffee today, but I don’t follow. “Teams with more points than earned”? I can’t tell if Steele is saying we have no shot at having a successful post season/reg season or if we have a high likelihood of repeating?
Also, why isn’t AL on that list? They had a lot of players drafted too, didn’t they?
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That’s my question too — where is Alabama? Because they had 2 firsts (14 pts), 2 seconds (12 pts), 2 thirds (10 pts.), and a fourth (4 points). Wouldn’t that add up to…math….40 points?
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Looking at 2021, Alabama lost 48 points and we only lost 42 points. So, I guess this is supposed to compare the 2022 draft to the 2021 draft and takes out teams that lost more talent in 2021 than in 2022?
I mean, “the sky is falling” and all that, but UGA is at the point where we know we will be replacing a lot of key contributors every year — and we are able to do that and keep rolling.
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Thanks for this, now I get it.
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I’m not sure I have it right, but that seems as plausible a guess as any. 🙂
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With the exception of Dean and maybe Pickens (more so if he’d been healthy all year) the guys who we lost were guys who can be replaced because they were developed over the course of their careers and not a singular talent like Todd Gurley or AJ Green. We will miss Cine, Davis, Tindall, etc but there are so many great players waiting for their turn that I don’t think Steele’s formula will be predictive for the Dawgs in 2022.
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Senator, did you buy it in person? I haven’t seen it at any grocery stores this year.
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The UGABC sends me mine every year.
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Right now, it’s only on sale at Barnes and Noble.
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Thanks. I didn’t get it last year for the first time in probably 20 years ago I may skip it again due to superstition.:)
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If it works, it’s not superstition, amirite? 😉
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“(Oy!)…I’ll never mix carrot juice and celery juice again!!!!”
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Every one in the Hartman fund got one. At least I did.
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Look, are we likely to repeat as National Champions? Nope. Not saying it can’t happen, but it isn’t likely.
Are we likely to beat Bama for the SEC Title? Probably not.
Are we likely to go undefeated in the regular season again so that even if we lose in Atlanta we still make The Playoff? I’d say we stand a good chance if we get past Oregon in game one and a late season trap game in Starkville, which will probably be a 7pm ESPN2 special in which the crazed cowbell slinging rednecks will be at a fever pitch.
I’m being fairly realistic about what we can and cannot do this season. I think another Playoff run is in the offing; but if Bama can get over their o-line problems from last season, they’re going to be extremely tough to beat with all that defensive muscle coming back which should be better even with Pete Golding as the DC.
That being said… we’re in the Five Year Championship Grace Period, baby! It’s something Bill Simmons invented a long time ago when he was a Page 2 writer. It means even if we finish with a losing record, we can’t unduly complain because we just did something miraculous and we have to take stock and be happy.
https://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/041214
Simmons used to be a guy I loved to read, because he talked like all of us. He came up with terms like, “Five Year Grace Period” and “Levels of Losing” to include the “Gut-punch Loss,” of which Dawgs fans are more than familiar. 2018, 2017, and 2012 to Bama were definitely “Gut-punch Losses.”
Man, I miss that guy Bill Simmons used to be.
Anyway. Grace period! Bring on the season with no expectations and no stress and no anxiety. Let’s all just drink beer and brown liquor and eat barbecue and burgers and dogs and enjoy CFB like we used to when we were kids and we were just hoping that Ray Goff could get his team to 6 wins so we could go to Shreveport or Memphis before Christmas.
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Meh. No Expectations my ass. Back2Back, bitches.
Cue the Trumpet Solo for when Stetson Bennett raises the Heisman, the SECCG Trophy, and the National Championship Trophy for the second time, and surpasses Herschel for the title of Greatest Dawg In History.
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That’s cool, but not me. I’m going to be Alfred E. Newman. “What, me worry?”
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Corch, I think you’ve erroneously discounted the essence of the whole issue…KIRBY!!!!!!! He will keep not only the players, but also the entire program properly focused on “THE STANDARD,” Something that we really haven’t had in program history. Glory, GLORY to Old Georgia!!!!!!!! Dammit.
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Sorry Corch, but I can’t go along with you. It is Sunday and I will go back and reread Rev. Ben Dukes.
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I’m withyou. We have something they don’t have. A Kirby.
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Maybe the best post I’ve read in a long time. We’ll be in the hunt for a NC, should have a strong team, should beat our key rivals like a drum and should have a very respectable winning record, so I’m just going to enjoy this season. No pressure on me the fan this year;-)
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I’m telling you, Chicago… before we all grew up and took CFB so damn seriously and each and every one of us began to bear the weight of 41 years on our shoulders, every game, every series, every damn down became a life or death stressful chore. No one more guilty of this than I was. I was hardly alone, though. I’d wager that most of us here felt that way at some point in the last 20 or so years. With the joy of a season came the dread of not being able to win it all until at some point, the dread outweighed the joy.
No more dread. We did it. So let’s enjoy it. The team and the coaches can’t enjoy it anymore, because they have to put it behind them. So let’s continue to enjoy it for them. When I think back to all those mediocre to awful Ray Goff and Jim Donnan teams in the mid-90’s, even though I was just hoping for middling bowls ever season, I had so much joy watching the Dawgs even as we were in the middle of massive losing streaks to Floriduh and the Hillbillies.
It’s time to get back to that feeling again. Kirby finally did it. So let’s enjoy it!
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“No more dread. We did it. So let’s enjoy it.”
Indeed let’s enjoy the hell out of it!! But in the meantime there’s work to be done! There are hotels to be booked, tailgates to be planned, car magnets to be bought, gameday apparel to be cleaned, shit to be talked and…oh, yeah, the players have work to do, too!!!
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this is exactly how I feel. I’m excited for the season, but that existential dread of “1980” is just gone. I’ll hate the losses, sure, but I have much more equanimity about the upcoming season than I’ve had in 20 years.
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Somwonw tell Chizik about the 5 year grace period. And Larry COKER. And Coach O
(I generally agree with your point, I just like rubbing the noses of AU fans in it. And pretty much everyone else who ain’t us. FTMF).
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Yeah, but logic dictates Metchie and Williams gotta be worth about 40 points each.
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More like half a hunnert. 😉
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Finally, UGA is number 1 in a preseason poll, amiright…right now I’m starting to just hone in on the Ducks. Beat them, and then lurch toward immortality by winning the next game.
Rest assured, Kirby has a plan.
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Oops. I seem to remember that the Dawgs were ranked No.1 in the 2008 preseason polls. That one didn’t play out well. But the 2022 Dawgs are infinitely better than the 2008 team.
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UGA isn’t “ranked” first in any preseason poll I’ve seen for 2022…most have The Ohio State or Bama ranked first…my joke is when UGA gets a number 1 spot it was for points allotted due to attrition and as to why we can’t repeat as national champions…but it still won’t deter me…I say we just chip away wins, one at a time.
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He has a plan and he also has players. Lots of talented players. The plan is to beat Oregon, then 11 more, then 3 more. He has no alternate plan.
Somewhere, Erk is laughing, pointing at the scoreboard, and nodding approvingly.
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Damn skippy
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fd,
Your last sentence perfectly covers were I am with Georgia football.
The same man that loaded the boat with all those points Steele has added up is incapable of resting on past performance. Nothing less than doing your best is in his DNA. Kirby loves winning and there is no place he’d rather do it than it his school The University of Georgia. That’s going to be a big problem for whoever gets in his way for a long time.
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Scoob, this team is in the best hands. I’m as fanatical as I thought humanly possible, but then Kirby came along. He wants UGA to win more than anyone I know. You are spot on that it is in his DNA. ..we need to relish the Kirby era as much as possible…
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Some of the boys haven’t caught on to what’s happening in Athens. This isn’t old Georgia. This damn sure ain’t SabanBama 2.0. Kirby did not catch lightning in a bottle. This is a deliberate plan to be the best program in college football with the finest minds along with support and facilities tasked to complete said plan. All the old adages don’t hold true for Kirby’s plan and teams.
“Well everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
That’s right. Kirby has a plan for that too as he proved after the devastating SECC game. Underestimating what the Dawgs will do this season and going forward will make you just like the folks who picked Clemson over UGA and doubted SBIV.
Wrong.
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Sounds about right. Most of the preseason media pundits’ project us 3rd in the 2022 cfb so 11-1 is good enough to walk into the SEC champ game & win it.
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I’m old – prehistoric – fossilized – over the hill – ancient so I can be excused for not liking all these numbers games these guys crank out. For those of you that live by them remember you too will get old and likely disregard the statisticians at some point. Until then juggle numbers until the cows come home 🙂
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Attrition, how’d that work out?
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whatta maroon!
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And… it gets worse…
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Dancing Dabo.
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A fucking Pepto-Bismol nightmare
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“have a marked tendency to do as well“- is there supposed to be a “not” in there? I’m just a public school educated air traffic control redneck so my reading comprehension ain’t great but that sentence makes it sound like we’ll do just as well as last year.
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