Betting the opener

ESPN betting analyst has some thoughts:

Oregon vs. Georgia (-17.5) and Notre Dame at Ohio State (-14.5) are two games that could impact the CFP landscape. What are your early thoughts on those two matchups?

Bill Connelly, ESPN Football Insider: Let’s put it this way: SP+ couldn’t possibly be higher on Ohio State — it has the Buckeyes No. 1 over Georgia and Alabama thanks to how highly it thinks of the Buckeyes’ offense — and it still projects them to beat Notre Dame by only an average of 12.8 points. Obviously if Notre Dame’s quarterback situation remains blurry, the Irish could bobble, but they have the kind of experience and physicality in the trenches that Ohio State struggled with at times last season (particularly against Michigan and Oregon). If I’m putting money on that one, I’m picking the Irish..

It’s kind of the same story with UGA-Oregon. SP+ never saw Oregon as a serious contender last season, projects the Ducks just 24th to start the year and still has them as only 13.5-point underdogs in this one. The “Kirby Smart facing his former protege (Dan Lanning)” angle makes things a bit weird, especially if Smart is as mean to former assistants’ teams as Nick Saban has tended to be through the years. For that reason, I wouldn’t put money on this either way. But 17.5 points is awfully aggressive.

Stanford Steve Coughlin, ESPN betting analyst: I don’t like both games, but if I had to lean, I would rather lay the 14.5 with Buckeyes because they can turn it into a shootout. When I look at the other game, Oregon has a ton of experience coming back on the offensive line, and Lanning has enough talent to frustrate Georgia’s offense while the Ducks’ offense attempts to shorten the game on the ground. Georgia also has to replace players on defense, with many replacements playing considerable time for the first time in their careers.

Your thoughts?

30 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

30 responses to “Betting the opener

  1. moe pritchett

    I think our defense will be better than expected.
    And I think he just called Nick Saban mean.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Moe, I totally agree with you about the defense. There’s a boatload of talent on that defensive front with Carter, Stackhouse, Logue, Norton, Walthour, Brinson and all those freshmen. The inside linebackers have a ton of talent just need experience (it’s going to be hard to replace Nakobe as the QB of the D). The outside linebackers have 2 talented and experienced starters with a ton of talent behind them. The secondary will be good, and I don’t see a team that will be able to challenge them down the field until Alabama.

      Throw all of that in with likely the best group of coaches on the defensive side of the ball in the sport including the best defensive head coach in the game … yeah, I said it. The defense may not be historic but will be plenty good.

      Liked by 4 people

  2. Ran A

    I think the line on both of these games is too high. Georgia maybe 10 to 13? Believe that ND is better than a 14 point dog to OSU.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Russ

      Well, the last 30 seconds was the total cumulative time I’ve thought about ND vs aOSU, but the spread does seem high.

      I do think the Georgia spread is too large. First game of the season, Kirby is going to play conservative. Plus Kirby doesn’t want to embarrass Lanning right out of the gate. I think the Dawgs win comfortably, but I think that’s more like 10-14 points, with the Dawgs controlling the game.

      Like

  3. Blah, blah, blah … inexperienced, 15 draft picks, 5 1st round picks, walk-on quarterback, national championship hangover, Metchie & Williams … blah, blah, blah.

    Let go whip Oregon’s ass to start with, then eleven more and then another three.

    This is the Game Plan. We have no alternate plan.

    Liked by 13 people

  4. Corch Irvin Meyers, Former Jags Corch (2021)

    ESPN continues to live Tosu and ND, the most overrated teams in CFB, and continues the Georgia disrespect.

    Y’all notice that unlike LSU in 2020 and Bama in 2021, we’re getting like, absolutely zero bump from winning a National Title from all the “experts.” Those other teams got to enjoy fawning media praise after winning a title, but we aren’t. We went from winning a title to immediately hearing how Bama was winning the next one. Like Penishead said at Media Days, “It’s all about Bama.”

    Well, frak him and frak the rest of ESPN and frak the “experts.” We’re gonna spank Oregon and Tosu and ND will both lose in the regular season while our first loss isn’t likely to come until December.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. biggusrickus

    I might take the favorite in both. Both underdogs have first-time head coaches against two of the best teams in college football. Now, maybe one of those guys is the next big thing and gets more out of his roster than he should. Would you bet on that?

    Liked by 1 person

    • Bulldawg Bill

      Not in a million! Seems like new HC’s have a rocky first year. To wit: Kirby, UGA, 2016, 8-5.

      Like

  6. SenorLorenzo

    This feels at least a little bit like last year’s opener. All pre-season we foamed at the mouth imagining how a JT-led O was gonna light up the scoreboard, only to come out cold in Charlotte. Yeah, I know it turned out that JT was banged up, AND the Ducks’ D ain’t the Tigers’ D, but that still concerns me enough, along with not yet knowing the quality of our own D, for me to give the points but still be happy with any kind of straight up win.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. originaluglydawg

    I think both games will be closer than the spread.
    The WWL prognosticators are very stupid.
    Year after year after year after year the Big 10 gets it’s ass handed to it by the SEC in bowl games…yet they still, in their asinine belief that mid-west football is somehow the greatest show on earth. The greatest football team in the world is always either ND or anOSU or whoever Georgia is playing next game.
    FT-WWL-MF.

    Like

    • ASEF

      Preseason is about blowing smoke up as many fanbases’ butts as possible.

      B1G fans need convincing that (a) they can hang and (b) SEC powerhouses are beatable. That’s the foundation of the preseason hype machine

      Liked by 1 person

  8. ASEF

    Lanning isn’t fixing Oregon’s physicality issues in one off-season. Utah (!) made them quit twice in 4 weeks to close last season. Georgia’s a waaaaay bigger, faster, and just as mean team as Utah. Oregon will come in determined – and then wonder what just ran over them by the end of the 2nd quarter.

    Kirby will keep it respectable. He’s gotta love the disrespect card, and he won’t want to embarrass Lanning first game out.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. prosticutor

    Dawgs up 20 at the half, then between professional respect and not opening the playbook, we’ll see Beck handing the ball off a lot in the 2nd half with the final score to settle down around 16.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. MGW

    We’ll get up by four scores then put in the backups.

    Like

  11. Derek

    At no point over the last 40 years did I wish for another natty because I hoped to get love from the national sports media…or a dvd.

    I just want to do it again. And I still won’t care who they pick to win the following season.

    Never will. All it does is bring in the bandwagoners and who need them?

    I want a stadium full of dawg fans who watched until the end of this:

    https://apnews.com/article/129cee0c6db242f7c8f170cd9319be34

    You gotta earn it!

    Like

    • “Vandy took control of the game on the second play from scrimmage…”
      “The win was Vanderbilt’s first in Athens since ’61 after 15 straight losses.”

      OOOF.

      Like

    • Nil Butron is a Pud

      I was at that game. If I recall (and believe me I really don’t want to) it was also homecoming.

      Like

  12. I will be rooting for ND…to make a 4thQ comeback. I will be rooting for our 3rd string D to keep the shutout and O to score one more TD.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Biggen

    If this were any other person as the coach of Oregon, would this even be a headline opener? I think it would be an easy “Dawgs Cover” story buried beneath the ND/Ohio St game.

    Like

  14. Morris Day

    “Georgia also has to replace players on defense”
    Pretty soon, the NFL will consist only of UGA players. I mean, we’re the only ones losing players to the draft right? Lazy assed talking points…

    Liked by 3 people

  15. Clayton Joiner

    I wouldn’t bet the Dawgs to cover…but hope they do!

    Like

  16. whb209

    If Kirby was worried about the D he would have taken a player or two in the portal. If Kirby ain’t worried, then I ain’t worried.
    Take GA in every game this year. To hell with ND and OSU, I don’t give a shit.

    Like