“Explosiveness is listed first because it is the most impactful on wins and losses.”

If you’re interested, Virginia’s former director of analytics has done a deep dive into what’s behind explosive pass plays.  (It is a subject for which he can claim some degree of expertise, based on last season’s statistics.)

What’s cool for me is that factors he examines — “reduced” formations, pre-snap motion, play action, for example — are all part of Monken’s offensive scheme.  There’s some good analysis there, so give it a read.

13 Comments

Filed under Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

13 responses to ““Explosiveness is listed first because it is the most impactful on wins and losses.”

  1. theotherdoug

    I’m still reading it, but…

    I couldn’t help but think about Fromm and his struggles his last season when the author mentions passes to the middle of the field have significantly more explosive plays.

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    • I’m not sure Coley understood that the field in between the hash marks was available for use. I still believe his pass play designs were the worst I’ve seen in a long time. Creating space just seemed like a foreign concept to him. Would have loved to see Fromm play three years under Monken.

      Liked by 5 people

      • Coley sucked, but Fromm was allergic to the middle of the field his first 2 seasons too. He lived on sideline, back shoulder shots.

        He had a ridiculously high number of those go his way in 17 and 18. In 19, when he didn’t have Holloman and Ridley and Godwin and Wimms to make those tough catches, it all dried up and he’s out of the league 2 years later.

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  2. junkyardawg41

    It’s a good article although I struggle with some of the graphics — especially the last one. I assume that up to 15+ yards, that percent of completed passes result in 15+ yards plays. Whereas any number beyond 15+ reflects actual completion percentage. (It sort of makes it seem as only 13% of 45+ yard passes are considered explosive)

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    • I look at it more as “If you throw a pass X distance, you have Y% chance of getting an explosive.”

      But even so, the 15-20 spot is really rough for me to parse. I mean, maybe it’s because even UGA’s “bad” QBs are pretty damn good… but I can’t imagine a nation-wide completion percentage under 30% for passes 15-20 yards downfield (because, based on his definition, those passes have a 100% likelihood of being explosive, when completed).

      Maybe so, though. Maybe less than 3/10 passes thrown in that range get completed.

      I blame Metchie and Williams.

      #godawgs

      Liked by 4 people

  3. 69Dawg

    His summary is like reading porn. With our TEs and RB packed tight and motion the defense hasn’t got chance to get their coverage right. Brock down the middle for the bomb. I can’t wait.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. kingcmo2000

    It’s an interesting analysis. Be curious to see that over time. I don’t suspect passes over the middle of the field out tight formations were as explosive 15 years ago, unless we measured “explosiveness” in terms of many receivers got exploded. The game keeps changing.

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  5. Hobnail_Boot

    Recruit athletes. Put them in space with formation/motion. Penalize defenders for breathing on them.

    = profits!

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  6. ben

    Dawgs are gonna run roughshod over everyone this year and send Saban into an early retirement, right?

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  7. Hogbody Spradlin

    A lot of this is born of Steve Spurrier and a few other like minds, but I wonder how much the safety rule changes have helped make the forward pass king. Can’t clock receivers like they used to, safeties can’t come in at full speed and make those big hits.
    Kinda makes you nostalgic for Vince’s Veer, Erk’s Split 60, and the Earl Campbells, Herschels, and Marcus Duprees.

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  8. whb209

    The biggest change in O I have seen is the idea of O lineman using his hands. The old way allow the D to use hands but not the O. I don’t know when it changed, but it changed the whole game.
    There is holding every play now and no one is going to call it because the game is so fast they would miss more than they call so they just let them play. Big break for the O

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