… murderball?
Unnerving (?) when the team that already rated No. 1 coming into the season has one of the biggest positive rating changes after one week. Murderball will do that.
— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) September 7, 2022
Daily Archives: September 7, 2022
Advanced stats roundup
A few tidbits for you to enjoy…
- Football Outsider: Tracked ten; UGA won all but EPA/Rush, and even that was close. “Georgia showed more evidence that it has ascended to the Alabama Death Star stratosphere of the sport, where rebuilding isn’t a thing. The SEC slate for Georgia is relatively mild this year, and there does not seem to be much standing in the way of a berth in Atlanta to open December. It says a lot about what Kirby Smart has built that Week 1 can tell us that much so conclusively.”
- CFB Numbers: “Maybe you thought Georgia would take a step back after losing some pieces to the draft, and DC Dan Lanning to the Ducks. Nope, the Bulldogs are still loaded and the team to beat this season. They blasted Oregon and spoiled Lanning’s revenge game against his former boss. The Georgia offense had a perfect 100% series conversion rate (Rate an offense turns a 1st down into another 1st/TD) in non garbage time, which is only the 7th time that has happened between two FBS teams since 2017.”
- Josh Hancher: “The .772 Game EPA was the highest efficiency for UGA under Smart versus Power 5 teams. They bested that against U Mass in 2018, and the next highest EPA to a power 5 team last November versus Georgia Tech (.665).Going through the splits reveals much of the same, but especially noteworthy is the 3rd Down performance. 10.8 YPP, 90% success rate, and the absurd 2.389 EPA. That’s average, not explosiveness, but with 90% success rate, the explosiveness couldn’t go much higher. A lot of football left, but this offense might exceed expectations.” (Make sure you watch the video clip Josh compiled entitled “Dawg Porn on Third Down” and prepare to be impressed by the variety of calls Monken dialed up.)
We joke about the old saying “lies, damned lies and statistics”, but Georgia’s opener is one of those cases where the stats align precisely with what our eyes saw.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
The difference between explosive and efficient
This is some stat.
Think for a second about what that says regarding Monken’s ability to scheme. Georgia didn’t target deep, and didn’t run a lot of play action. What they did do was run a lot of stuff Lanning wasn’t prepared for — if anyone should have been familiar with Georgia’s offense, it’s Dan Lanning — and they blew the doors off Oregon’s defense.
If you’re an opposing defensive coordinator who’s got to prepare a game plan for Monken, good luck with that.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics
Montana reevaluates.
From today’s Mandel Mailbag ($$):
What are the two teams you feel like you need to do an about-face on after Week 1? Who were you too high on that showed cause for concern? Who were you too low on that could surprise people? — Ryan M.
… Believe it or not, I’ll say Georgia. That may sound strange given I had the Bulldogs making the College Football Playoff, but I thought they’d be less dominant given the amount of star power they’d lost. I figured, looking at the national hierarchy of Alabama and Ohio State, there was a drop-off to No. 3. Unless Oregon proves to be a 3-9 team this season, I think I vastly underestimated Kirby Smart’s ability to reload.
From dismissal to underestimation, Georgia, you’ve come a long way, baby.
Filed under Georgia Football
Philosophical
Say what you will about Ed Orgeron, the man is comfortable in his own skin.
Of course, receiving a $17 million buyout helps.
Filed under Coach O Needs Another Red Bull
Separation from the pack
Georgia’s dominating win over Oregon didn’t vault the Dawgs to first in SP+, but it did result in Bill Connelly’s advanced stat turning college football into a ridiculous two team race ($$).
… In my preseason SP+ projections, the top three teams — Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State — were so far ahead of the pack that there was the same distance between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Oklahoma as there was between Oklahoma and No. 18 NC State.
One week into the 2022 season, that picture is still mostly the same, as Ohio State’s rating rose a bit following a home win over Notre Dame. But Alabama and Georgia both saw their ratings rise a lot following Saturday wins over Utah State and Oregon by a combined 104-3. They treated decent teams like FCS also-rans, and their ratings reflect it. No. 2 Georgia is now 10.9 points ahead of No. 5 Texas A&M — the same distance separating A&M from No. 27 UCF. The teams that finished last season in the national title game are starting out well ahead of the pack.
Filed under Alabama, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
CFP expansion, a play in three acts
Shot.
Chaser.
Leave the damned bottle on the bar.
And there you have it in a nutshell: (1) I like it, but honesty compels me to admit there may be unforeseen consequences; (2) nah, it’s too great for that to happen; (3) NFL roolz, baby.
I’ve lost the war on this, so I’m not going to spend any more time railing against what this round of playoff expansion is going to do to the sport, but as I’ve said all along, I just wish the folks who advocate in favor of it would leave it at “I love brackets” and quit insulting my intelligence.
Filed under BCS/Playoffs
Get The Picture 
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