Mo’ sco’, or no?

For once, I’m genuinely interested in something Erik Evans posted.  He thinks we’re returning to an era when defenses are starting to regain some control over offenses.  And here’s one of the data points he raises as proof of that:

Scoring is down. All of those things have combined to mean that scoring is down, particularly at the margins: Since 2015, an average of 11 teams have hit 40+ PPG, with the scoring leader reaching at least 48 PPG every season. No team in 2021 was even at 48 PPG. Only one team even hit 45 PPG, and only five even hit the 40+ PPG mark. Overall, the average college football game is played at lower octane than it was in, say, 2018.

Now, data is data, so that’s fine, in and of itself.  My issue with that is it’s hard to argue a trend that involves a pandemic-limited season along with last year’s roster-adjusted play.  But I don’t want to dismiss his take out of hand, so I think I’ll keep an eye on scoring this season to see how it plays out.

At the moment, there are seven teams averaging more than 50 points a game, another seven (including Alabama!) averaging more than 45 points a game and sixteen more that are at the 40-point or better threshold.  I grant you the sample size is small, but that’s a thirty-team total, so if he’s right, we should expect a lot of fallout in the coming weeks.  Like I said, I’ll check back on this, because I’m interested.

8 Comments

Filed under College Football, Stats Geek!

8 responses to “Mo’ sco’, or no?

  1. Down Island Way

    Concur, let college football get past the pandemic related issues, that may or may not affected roster management, let’s get a cold one and talk stats…GO DAWGS!

    Like

  2. If it is a trend it makes sense. Give defensive coordinators time to figure out the new spread offenses utilizing RPOs ect. Building a roster of lighter faster defensive linemen takes time, but there has been a different approach to building and coaching defenses the last few years.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. jcdawg83

    Defense always adapts. The wishbone was unstoppable when it was unveiled. The veer was cutting edge and high powered. The “West Coast” offense was a mystery to defenses when it appeared.

    I have to wonder what the next offensive magic bullet will be. Could Monken’s tight ends as hybrid running back/wide receiver/offensive linemen be the next big thing?

    Liked by 1 person

  4. godawgs1701

    I think that the true defensive geniuses have started to adjust to the offenses again and devise schemes and systems to slow them down. I’ll have more to say about that after I see Georgia play Tennessee’s offense for a second time in November, but so far Kirby certainly seems to devised a substitution plan to keep players fresh even when the other team is going fast and they seem to have adjusted the personnel packages to account for the spreads and RPOs. We will see, but last year’s results and the early returns this year look good.

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  5. W Cobb Dawg

    I blame Honky McFailson.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. marshesofglynn

    Good. I prefer the dark sorcery of good defense to the cartoonery of good offense.

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  7. I’m seeing DBs and LBs moving around much more and better than in the days of needing to stop the run. OLs seem trimmer and moving backwards for pass blocking and pulling as opposed to bulling forward. So yeah, the DCs are catching-up in molding their players, techniques and schemes to slow down the spread (but not stop…the scoring average is still incredibly high). I don’t think OCs, including Monken, will give the next Gurley, Chubb, or other monster RB 30 carries anymore, but if you find one, you’ve really added a weapon D’s won’t be ready for.

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