But that doesn’t mean I don’t have a few thoughts on tomorrow’s game. Some bullet points:
- Graham points out that, like Missouri, Auburn runs a primarily zone blocking scheme on offense (“They run Zone plays 3 to 1 over Gap Scheme.”).
- Robby Ashford’s passer rating is about the same as Brady Cook’s, but they don’t ask Ashford to throw as much as Cook does.
- Even after last week, Mizzou is last in the SEC in pass completions of 10+ yards. Auburn is eighth. Matt Hinton notes that Ashford had six completions of 25+ yards against LSU. Graham saw that happen against LSU because their defensive backs bit on playing the quarterback when Ashford rolled right, which kind of sounds familiar based on what we saw in Columbia from Cook.
- Sacks: Auburn has eleven. Missouri has ten.
- Tackles for loss: Missouri 34, Auburn 27.
- You would think with Bigsby and Auburn’s emphasis on running the ball, that they’d be better than Missouri in that regard. You would be wrong, though. Missouri has gained more rushing yardage and has a better yards per carry average than does Auburn.
- According to Graham, Auburn’s d-line is the strength of their defense, but that line has had issues with gap scheme offenses. Again, that’s something to keep an eye on, based on Georgia’s fourth quarter success against Missouri.
- Auburn’s net ypp figure is better than Mizzou’s. Connelly’s/Fremeau’s F+ ratings rank Auburn higher, as well. Sagarin’s strength of schedule between the two is essentially a toss up.
I point out these comparisons for context. Georgia was a huge favorite last week and is the same this Saturday. Also, Missouri is the one common opponent Auburn and Georgia have faced and both escaped with narrow wins.
One thing I haven’t noted yet is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, and that’s turnover margin. The Tigers are minus-9, which is 128th in the country. Even with the bleeding the Dawgs have done in that department over the past two games, they’re still +2 and 38th nationally. If that stat is not breaking Georgia’s way against Auburn, it’s hard to see how they cover that ginormous spread.
The LSU-Auburn box score kind of blows my mind. LSU only threw for 85 passing yards and only five yards in the second half. Auburn outgained them on the day, 438 to 270. But their running game was anemic, averaging only 3.3 yards per carry on 31 tries, and they turned the ball over 4 times, compared to one from LSU. Even more alarming, Auburn’s backs (including Ashford) put the ball on the ground six times. The Tigers have significant problems with ball security.
Even more telling, they jumped out to a 17-point lead midway through the second quarter at home and couldn’t put LSU away. And after LSU took the lead, they played the last 18 minutes of the game without scoring. That’s about as stark a contrast as you can come up with in comparison to the way Georgia overcame a 13-point deficit to win on the road last week.
All of which is to say I can see Saturday going in a couple of ways. One, the Dawgs finally get their collective shit together and that, combined with Auburn being on the wrong side of turnover margin again, is enough to run the Tigers out of Sanford Stadium. Two, the two-week funk Georgia’s been in continues and they slog their way to a modest win.
That being said, I like this line of Bill Connelly’s: “Of course, any time you’re betting on an awesome but slow-starting team to keep starting slow, you’re playing with fire.”
What say you?
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