Yes, Georgia has won four of the past five games, but do we really think this Bulldog offense is truly elite?
Chaser. (h/t)
I’m beginning to understand why Clay is a shitty tout.
Daily Archives: October 27, 2022
Asked and answered
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
“Gators don’t like it much.”
Mark Richt reflects on the Celebration, fifteen years (!) later.
Filed under Georgia Football
Georgia-Florida advanced stats preview
Before you turn your “math? nobody said there’d be math” nose up at this, take a look at this well done take on what the stats reveal about the two teams heading into Saturday’s game.
Bud is a Gator, as you can no doubt tell from the order of teams in his header, but his analysis is not biased. There’s a lot of good information in there, especially if you haven’t followed Florida closely this season (for example, Richardson is an erratic passer, but he’s a legit threat as a runner), so do yourself a favor and have a look.
Filed under Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Today, in when they say it’s about the money…
Shot.
During Pac-12 basketball media day on Wednesday, Kliavkoff said he’s spoken to more than 100 people connected to both programs, including players and coaches, and the consensus has been against the move to the Big Ten.
“I think saying hundreds would be an exaggeration — dozens, more than a hundred,” he said. “And I have yet to talk to anyone in the UCLA and USC community who’s in favor of the move. I will say that I probably hear from folks who are not in favor, not surprisingly.”
Chaser.
According to reports, UCLA will reap an eight-figure gain annually when it joins the Big Ten.
“We believe that between the travel and coaches’ salaries and some of the other expenses that you incur when you join the Big Ten, that the small delta in the [Big Ten] media rights deal will be more than offset and we stand by those numbers,” Kliavkoff said.
I had no idea the cost of flying had skyrocketed like that. George needs to come up with a better sales pitch, methinks.
Filed under Big Ten Football, It's Just Bidness, Pac-12 Football
“But as long as we’re winning, why change something that’s so much fun?”
In a really good piece, Seth Emerson ($$) explores how moving the Georgia-Florida series to a home-and-home arrangement would impact folks we don’t hear too much from — Dawg fans living in the southern part of the state.
Gilbert listened to all this. He is a former municipal court judge in Brunswick, one of the many south Georgia towns close to Jacksonville. Now he lives on Jekyll Island, where fans will flock for this weekend’s game. And now it was Gilbert’s time to weigh in.
“It’s not a ballgame; it’s a way of life,” he said. “It’s what people talk about all year. And if Kirby Smart takes that away, he’s going to lose a lot of support, and it will feel like it’s an Athens football team and not a Georgia football team.”
I can’t help but wonder how many folks are getting in Josh Brooks’ ear about this and if they’re putting it in the same stark terms.
This strikes me as the ultimately reasonable take:
“Florida, having Georgia come to the Swamp, could really help them keep some of those kids home that we’ve kind of feasted on the last few years,” Sullivan said. “If Kirby is truly thinking a change is warranted, I would have to respect that. And I can see his point. But are you net ahead over time with that every other year being in Gainesville?”
Fair question, but how do you prove that, one way or the other?
Filed under Georgia Football
Matt Hayes: Georgia, the vacation is over.
Welp, this is certainly one take on the Dawgs’ season so far.
Tangible or not, this team doesn’t have the same feel of last year’s team. Doesn’t have the same killer instinct. Doesn’t have the foot-on-the-throat and refusing to let up.
It could be as simple as competition dictating the intensity, a flip of the switch away from dominating again.
Georgia is outscoring its opposition by an average of 41.7 to 9.1. The defense has pitched two shutouts in seven games and held two currently ranked teams to a total of ten points. If they aren’t dominating yet, I’m looking forward to seeing what domination looks like.
Filed under Georgia Football, Media Punditry/Foibles
Beamer Ball 2.0
South Carolina is 5-2. The ‘Cocks have won four straight since getting blasted by Georgia. What’s the secret to their success? Well, in this case it appears the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
RV combines the values generated on both defensive and special teams returns, plays that generally speaking are rare and often random. On the year, the Gamecocks have produced 38.2 points in SRV value in six FBS games, leading the nation in both total SRV generated and SRV generated per game (6.4 points). South Carolina is one of only four teams that have had a positive SRV value in every game it has played this season. Against Georgia State, South Carolina produced touchdowns on two blocked punt returns, generating 16.9 points of SRV in a 21-point victory. Against Kentucky, the Gamecocks dominated starting field position with turnover and special teams returns, generating 7.5 points of SRV in a 10-point win. And against Texas A&M, South Carolina finished the game with 3.5 points of SRV in a six-point win, and that was after surrendering a late onside kick to the Aggies which cost them 2.6 points of SRV. Prior to that play, the Gamecocks had actually generated more SRV value than the scoring margin in the game.
South Carolina leads the nation in my overall special teams ratings through Week 8, and Beamer Ball is alive and well in Shane’s second year at the helm in Columbia.
One other thing that probably should be factored in to SC’s success is turnover margin. South Carolina was minus-7 in its first three games and +1 during the four game win streak.
Brian asks a good question at the end:
There is no doubt that big special teams plays can swing games and potentially overcome offensive and defensive efficiencies. But is it sustainable? Special teams ratings do not correlate with winning games as reliably as offensive and defensive metrics, and we extract the randomness of special teams and defensive return data from possession data precisely because they are less predictive and may actually disguise a team’s fundamental strengths or weaknesses.
Their next two opponents are Missouri and Vanderbilt, so it may not matter too much, but they finish with Tennessee and Clemson, where they’ll need all the special teams excellence they can muster just to be competitive.
Filed under 'Cock Envy, Stats Geek!
Bet the ranch!
Talk about your mortal lock — here’s Clay Travis’ betting advice for Georgia-Florida:
Florida +22.5 vs. Georgia
I’ve been to a ton of Cocktail Parties over the years and we were scheduled to be there this weekend, initially. But then Florida played so poorly we called an audible and are headed to Kentucky-Tennessee instead, which is the better game.
I’m old enough to remember when Georgia couldn’t win this game no matter what. Heck, I was at the game when Mark Richt told his entire team to storm the field and celebrate after an early touchdown when the Bulldogs pulled off the upset back in 2007.
This is the largest margin line we’ve seen in the modern era of cocktail parties and I just keep thinking the Gators will show up and actually give Georgia a bit of a challenge, at least for a half.
Yes, Georgia has won four of the past five games, but do we really think this Bulldog offense is truly elite? The Gators cover a massive number in this one.
Clay is 41-49 on his college picks, which he admits is “not ideal”. You have been warned.
A prude’s guide to the Georgia-Florida game
Oh, FFS. Mark Bradley really has his finger on the pulse of Dawgnation.
Not being a native Georgian or a UGA alum, it took me a while to grasp a strange truth: Even when the Bulldogs were under the thumb of the Evil Genius, a seeming majority of Bulldog backers preferred to keep the game in Jacksonville than make it home-and-home. They didn’t care so much about winning – this is the strange part – as about their annual autumn getaway. (The school all but closes on Friday of Georgia-Florida week.)
Stipulations: I’m a neutral, and I’m not much of a drinker. But I’ve seen enough on those in Jacksonville to make me never want to open anything but a can of Coke. The Cocktail Party label always came with a wink, but really: Is this something with which an institute of higher learning cares to be affiliated? (The answer’s no, at least officially. CBS, the network of the WGOCP, is asked not to mention the obvious.)
Has he never been to a tailgate in Athens (or pretty much any SEC town) before?
Filed under Georgia Football, Media Punditry/Foibles
Get The Picture 