The road ahead

Paul Myerberg looks at the remaining schedules of the 20 P5 one-loss or unbeaten teams and rates Georgia’s the third-easiest of the bunch.

3. No. 3 Georgia (7-0)

Toughest games left: at Auburn, at Georgia Tech

The rivalry game with Florida on Oct. 28 is bound to get interesting, but Georgia’s toughest matchups come on the road: at Auburn on Nov. 11 and at Georgia Tech to cap the regular season Nov. 25. But this is the sort of schedule that should have fans dreaming of a matchup with unbeaten Alabama in early December to decide the SEC championship.

Tech tougher than the Gators?  That ain’t right.

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Alex, I’ll take “Things you don’t want to be reminded of if you’re Jim McElwain” for $200.

Yeah, this is not a good look.

Now at 3-3, Florida is off to its worst start since 2003 under Ron Zook.

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“… and a one-point loss to now-No. 3 Georgia.”

Every week that goes by with the media extolling Notre Dame’s season, this looks better and better.

And in light of this,

Notre Dame has also been tremendously stingy when opponents have moved inside the Irish 20-yard line. Notre Dame leads the FBS with only one rushing touchdown allowed…

so does this.

Screenshot-2017-10-18 Georgia vs Notre Dame - Game Recap - September 9, 2017 - ESPN

 

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Get after that ATS.

This is kind of weird.  For all the conventional wisdom of the value of an off-week, Patrick Garbin discovered that, at least with regard to covering the point spread, there hasn’t been much value for Georgia in that at all.

Screenshot-2017-10-18 UGASports com - The Bulldogs_ Off-Bye Blues(1)
I assumed when I saw the headline to his article that it was all due to Florida, but it’s not.  It’s about Georgia.  Go figure.

Moreover, this has been trending even more negatively of late.

Therefore, beginning with the Tennessee game in 2008 and ending with Smart’s lone result following an open date (14-point loss to Florida last season as a 7½-point underdog), Georgia is a staggering 1-11 ATS in its last dozen games off a bye. Three of the 11 losses, the Bulldogs were favored by at least 6½ points and lost straight up. The one game they covered, barely covered, when as 2½-point favorites over Florida in 2011, Georgia won by four points. Notably, the 11 losses did not cover by an average of a lofty 11 points.

With nine of those twelve games in Jacksonville, you’d have to say that is about Florida.  Or, perhaps more accurately, Georgia’s mindset against the Gators.  At some point, that’s gotta change.

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Bye week happy talk

Those stars just won’t quit aligning, peeps.

After an injury scare to Georgia’s leading receiver, and two games without its best defensive lineman, it appears Terry Godwin and Trenton Thompson are on track to play against Florida.

Both players were in uniform at Tuesday’s practice, the team’s first of the bye week.

I keep waiting for a shoe to drop.  This is Florida we’re talking about, after all.

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When you take your foot off the gas pedal of the Gus Bus…

… shit happens, like blowing at 20-point lead to a team that lost to Troy two weeks before.

I’m really looking forward to seeing the revised rankings of the SEC coaches after the season from all the geniuses in the punditocracy who were singing the praises of Dan Mullen (who, admittedly, ain’t bad) and Malzahn.

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Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands

When you don’t allow yourself to play down to the level of your opponent…

For those of you still freaking out that OMG! MIZZOU SCORED 28 POINTS ON GEORGIA!!!, allow Mr. Connelly to provide some context.

Mizzou won the field position battle, finished every scoring chance in the end zone (thanks to that whole “only score via big play” thing), got a smidgen of turnovers luck, and created bigger big plays. All the things the Tigers needed to do against South Carolina, they did in a blowout loss. Cool, cool.

Three things here:  one, Georgia brought its B-minus, C-plus game against a lesser conference opponent and still won by 25, going away.  Two, that doesn’t mean Georgia can bring the same kind of game against, say, Auburn, and expect the same results.  (Somewhat shockingly, I expect the coaches already know that.)  (Yes, that’s sarcasm.)

Most importantly, how many times over the past few years have we seen the Dawgs bring their B-minus, C-plus game against inferior opposition… and lose?  Yeah, that’s what I thought.

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