I feel privileged to have in Sanford Stadium to witness Kentucky’s epic fourth quarter drive that allowed them to go 6-1.
I’ll never see its like again. If I’m lucky…
Category Archives: Georgia Football
Your game day post, Big Blue edition
Well, let me start by saying that I don’t have any visceral dislike for the Kentucky football program. They’re not Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia Tech… well, you get the idea. I think Stoops is an excellent coach who’s done a good job maximizing what he can get out of that program. The ‘Cats are 6-0 right now and even if they lose today, their prospects for the rest of the season are good, like 10 wins and a potential NY6 bowl game good.
That all being said, Stoops and his team have two big problems. First, they want to run the ball — no, more accurately, they need to run the ball — in order to have a shot today; unfortunately, that runs smack dab into the greatest strength of this Georgia team. Second, they’ve got a couple of key injuries in places where they really can’t afford them, the defensive line and wide receiver.
That being said, I don’t think Stoops lets his offense suddenly go all pass first on the Dawgs. It’s not how Kentucky is built and Stoops knows a shortened clock is his best friend. I think he’ll look for ways to steal a possession or even two. (For some reason, I keep thinking the ‘Cats will try an onside kick at some point, but don’t quote me on that.) Even if he manages that, I doubt it would be enough.
For Kentucky to prevail, it’s going to take an “any given Saturday” course of events, like something crazy in turnover margin (say, at least +3) or Levis having a Beyond Crompton game, as Calzada did last week against TAMU. Neither are impossible, of course, but both are unlikely.
I think it’s more likely that we’re going to see a grinder of a game that Georgia slowly, but steadily, asserts control over. And I think that when the game hits the point of no return, Stoops and Smart are both going to play run the clock. Accordingly, I think Georgia gets close to covering the 22.5, but falls just short. Maybe something like 31-10 or 35-13.
One small thing to keep an eye on this afternoon is the weather. No, we’re not getting a repeat of 2019 conditions, thank Gawd. But it’s supposed to be a windy afternoon, with gusts in the mid-20s. Will that impact the kicking game or the deep passing game? Maybe.
Add your thoughts and observations in the comments. I’ll be back in a few…
Filed under Georgia Football
Big Nasty
Jordan Davis is special. How special?
This special.
Danielson was right about one thing he said in that clip I posted yesterday: Davis’ dominance is such that if he played a skill position, he’d be running away with the Heisman this season.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
SEC Nation sez it’s game day!
Consider this shock therapy to get you going this morning.
Filed under ESPN Is The Devil, Georgia Football
Recipe for success?
So, you’re telling me that Kentucky has primarily lined up in a 3-3-5 defense this season and their defensive tackle who just won SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors is out for Saturday’s game?
That doesn’t sound like it bodes well.
If Rybka isn’t ready and Saunders is playing like a true freshman, what does UK do? Their options are limited, but they can fortify the box. This year the Wildcats have primarily lined up in a 3-3-5 defense, allowing Davonte Robinson to get a substantial amount of reps as the nickel. As Adam Luckett suggested on 11 Personnel, Kentucky might have to abandon this look and let Jordan Wright and JJ Weaver play at the same time in a 3-4 alignment.
Pick your poison. Either way, I expect Monken will be ready.
Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Strategery And Mechanics
Advanced stats: Bennett vs. Daniels
I posted the difference on third down between the two already, but Seth Emerson ($$) adds a few more data points today in his Mailbag:
• Accuracy: Just one of Daniels’ 71 pass attempts this season has been an off-target incompletion, the best such rate (1.4 percent) at the FBS level, per Pro Football Focus. No other player has an off-target rate lower than 5 percent, the national average is 14 percent, and Bennett’s rate is 11.5 percent.
• Third downs: Daniels has converted 11-of-18 third-down passes (61.1 percent), the highest rate in the FBS. Bennett’s rate is 12.5 percent, which ranks 148th. (Though to be fair, he has run for a first down on several of those occasions.) But overall on third down, Daniels ranks eighth nationally in pass efficiency, while Bennett ranks 77th.
• Pocket poise: Daniels has averaged 1.97 seconds in the pocket before his pass, the fastest rate in the FBS level. Bennett has averaged 2.53 seconds, which is 74th in FBS.
Seth goes on to describe the difference between the two as, “Daniels is the efficient distributor, especially on the money down, while Bennett has made more flashy plays, but not quite as consistent.” I would simply add there is no quarterback controversy and Stetson’s been the best backup quarterback in the country this season. Georgia is lucky to have ’em both.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
What happens, should adversity hit?
Perusing Kentucky’s schedule, I find their largest deficit in a game at any point this season is seven points, which happened twice, against UL Monroe and Florida. Both were short-lived, first quarter leads. Both were home games.
So what happens if Georgia gets on top early on by a couple of scores? And that’s certainly not an unreasonable expectation. With the exception of the opener against Clemson, the Dawgs have opened at least a two-score lead by halftime in every game this season (and even against Clemson had a 7-0 lead at the half).
It’ll be a road game. It’ll be a loud environment. Can Kentucky punch back? I don’t know. The thing is, this UK team doesn’t really know whether it can, either, because it hasn’t been tested like that yet.
Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football
“It’s the next game on the schedule.”
Kirby Smart doesn’t want any part of the ESPN hype for Saturday’s game.
Filed under Georgia Football
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