Phil Steele and average performance

Phil Steele looks at every team in the country — because that’s what Steele does — and measures its offensive and defensive performance in the context of where it sits in the opponent’s season.

A couple years ago during the season I was wondering how certain offensive and defensive performances that a team had vs a particular opponent stacked up on how the other opponents fared against that team. Not every performance as far as yards gained and given up is created equal due to the quality of opponent played. So to the right of the net yards and points columns, you will see an offensive vs foe and defensive vs foe numbers. The first # is what that performance ranked compared to every other team their opponent allowed throughout the year (#1 being the best, with #12 being the worst since most teams play 12 games) while the second column contains the number of yards positive or negative against their opponent’s average.

I have broke down the offensive and defensive averages and in today’s blog I took all those averages (both offense and defense) and combined them to come up with the most impressive teams in the country compared to how they fared against their opponent. Here is a ranking of all 130 teams and how they did. This list does take out Garbage yards that may occur during overtime and/or blowout wins/losses.

As far as it goes, then, that’s a relatively neutral method of analysis, relative because not all schedules are equal.  Dominating a lineup of MAC opponents isn’t the same as doing so in the ACC or Pac-12.

Still, it makes for an interesting top twenty in certain ways.

More confirmation, as if we needed any, that Clemson and Alabama were the two best teams last season.  Georgia’s fourth is no real surprise, either.  Nor is Oklahoma’s defense, or Ohio State’s, to a lesser extent.

That Mississippi State defense, though… I knew it was good, but not that dominant.

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Allow me to retort, Danny.

Phil Steele has an interesting stat up today.

Combined Offensive and defensive yards vs what opp's normally average.
1. Alabama +314.2 vs opp avg
2 Clemson +300.4
3 Michigan +244
4 Oklahoma +203
5 Texas A&M +172.7
6 Georgia +160
7 Wash St +144
8 Miss St +142.4
9 Ohio St +141.7
10 UAB +139
11 ND +128https://t.co/WsrsuJq6wW

— Phil Steele (@philsteele042) November 16, 2018

TAMU is a bit of an eye-opener there.  If you go to the linked piece, you’ll find that the Aggies are pretty balanced in that regard, 19th offensively and 12th defensively.  (By comparison, Georgia is 14th and 26th, respectively.)  Jimbo looks like he can still coach a little.

Oh, and in case you’re wondering about the methodology, Steele removes garbage yards that may occur during overtime and/or blowout wins/losses.

Anyways, Central Florida?  Glad you asked.  Steele has UCF ranked 29th.  The breakdown is 8th on offense and 91st on defense, where it’s actually 20 yards worse than opponents’ average.  So much for that whole “just like Oklahoma” argument.  (FYI, Oklahoma isn’t great defensively, but at least it’s holding opponents below their season average.)

Steele’s preseason top 25

It’s not his power poll(s).  It’s his stab at the reality of college football rankings.

“My preseason rankings are not my power rankings,” Steele writes. “These rankings take into account the totality of the circumstances that I feel each team will face in the 2018 season — schedule strength, foes’ schedules (coming off byes), experience edges at the start of the year and so forth.

“My Top 40 is where I project teams to finish in the final rankings and have always done quite well. These rankings reflect not only talent, but the strength of schedule and how each team should finish the season. Over the past five years, 244 of the 274 teams that I have listed in my top rankings have made it to bowl eligibility and that is a solid 89 percent.”

Okay, now that we’ve got that settled, here’s how they look:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
5. Georgia
6. Wisconsin
7. Miami
8. Notre Dame
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas
11. Michigan
12. Penn State
13. Michigan State
14. Boise State
15. Stanford
16. USC
17. Florida
18. Florida State
19. Auburn
20. TCU
21. Mississippi State
22. Utah
23. Boston College
24. Oregon
25. Arkansas State

Yeah, while the top five seem pretty standard, there are a few eyebrow raisers farther on down the list, starting with Texas popping in at number ten.  And how about Florida being ranked ahead of Auburn?  Not to mention Arkansas State being ranked ahead of nine SEC teams?  Ouchy ouch.

Your daily dose of Steele, and more

There’s a metric Steele created that tracks how a college team’s personnel losses to the NFL draft affect its record the following season:

Over the past 21 years, teams that accumulated more points than the previous year and accumulated…

12 or more points – weaker or same record 282 of 377 (74.8%)

24 or more points – weaker or same record 78 of 96 (81.3%)

35 or more points – weaker or same record 20 of 26 (76.9%)

Points are based on the round a player is drafted in — seven for the first, six for the second, etc.

Anyway, and I’m pretty sure you know where this is headed, number three on his 2018 points lost list is Georgia, with 31.  On its face, then, that would indicate Georgia has only a one-in-five chance of improving on its 2017 record.  Danger, Will Robinson!

20% ain’t nothing, though.  It’s worth noting that Alabama tops that list, with an astounding 44 points, and I don’t see Phil Steele shoveling dirt on the Tide’s grave this year.  Quite the contrary, in fact.

And that is the important corollary here.  Over time, depth, or, more accurately, talented depth, trumps departures.  With that in mind, read David Wunderlich’s post at Gator Country comparing Florida’s talent levels at each position to those of Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

In any event, Georgia has an enormous talent lead on the rest of its division. It pulled ahead in that respect thanks to its blockbuster 2018 signing class, so it’s an advantage that should prove durable for a few years.

It’s even more stark if we just look at the number of players with each given star rating on the rosters.

Team	5-Stars	4-Stars	3-Stars	2-Stars
Florida	2	34	42	2
Georgia	13	48	24	1
South Carolina	0	23	53	6
Tennessee	1	34	47	2

Florida and Tennessee combined only have ten more blue chip 4-star and 5-star players (71) than Georgia has by itself (61). That 2018 class again figures large here, as nearly half (14) of the top 30 players on UGA’s roster by the Composite are freshmen.

The SEC lives in a Jimmies-and-Joes world.  The 2018 NFL draft doesn’t change that.

In all, though, Georgia is and should be the heavy favorite in the division because it’s way out in front in the talent department and showed itself to be well-coached enough on its trip to the national title game a year ago. Mullen just signed Florida’s best class by average recruit rank since 2013, but it’s going to take multiple years of doing even better than that to catch up.

Today’s dose of Steele

Steele ranks units not just nationally, but also by conference.  His SEC rankings for Georgia:

• QB 1
• RB 2
• Rec 2
• OL 1
• DL 4
• LB 3
• DB 3
• ST 1

Alabama ranks first in six categories (tied with Georgia at QB and OL), which is tops for the conference.  However, there’s more variation in the Tide’s rankings, as Steele ranks their receivers sixth and special teams seventh.

All in all, it’s another indication Steele perceives the gap is shrinking between the top to two programs in the SEC.

Steele’s 2018 SEC coach rankings

Here you go, in order of descent:

• Saban
• Malzahn and Smart (tied)
• Boom
• Fisher
• Mullen, Orgeron and Stoops (tied)
• Mason and Odom (tied)
• Luke
• Morris
• Moorhead and Pruitt (tied)

Steele’s playoff picks may be conventional, but the order of this list sure isn’t.  Muschamp has a losing record against Jimbo (not to mention that unlike Fisher, Boom’s been fired before).  Orgeron tied with Mullen is an unusual take, to say the least.  His ranking of Moorhead is more negative than most.

There seems to be an emphasis on experience at the bottom of the rankings and not so much of one towards the top.

Your thoughts?

Today’s Steele entry

I was going to draft up something lengthy last night for you, but family business came first.  In its place, though, I will share one of those factoids that Steele loves to throw in regularly.

If there’s one hole in Kirby’s game after two seasons, it’s how his team has performed in its two cross-divisional road games.  The Dawgs have been blown out in both, by Ole Miss and Auburn.  Maybe there’s something in the water once you cross the Chattahoochee.

Just something else to tuck in the back of your head when the team goes out to Baton Rouge…