Category Archives: Stats Geek!

“Still, Georgia didn’t lose. Everybody else did.”

You can probably guess that advanced stats aren’t that impressed with the 1980 national champions.  Or, as Bill Connelly puts it,

Vince Dooley’s Georgia Bulldogs were coming off of a 6-5 season and based their hopes on a freshman running back. That is not a sentence that should ever be followed with “…and then they won the national title.”

Still, as the quote in the header says, 12-0, baby.  And, really, about what other season can you say that?

So, no, I don’t have any problem debating that.  I just wish somebody would make the advanced stats case that Herschel was robbed of the Heisman Trophy that season.

13 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

I knew it was too good to last.

Damn it, KC Joyner.  First you give me hope, then you snatch it away.

8 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Let’s get stoned: a tale of perspective

Man, all these student-athletes getting caught drinking and smoking weed.  If they could only be more like their peers… oh, wait.

On any given day in America, roughly 1.4 million college students between the ages of 18 and 22 — or more than 1 out of every 8 American undergrads — will drink alcohol, according to new data from the federal Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration.

Those who partake will consume an average of about four drinks each — just below the five-drink threshold that defines binge drinking. Of course, many of them will drink more than that. Many will drink less.

Other young people will opt to alter their consciousness with different substances. Roughly 900,000 college students, or 1 in 12, will get stoned…

The point here isn’t to condone the behavior – rule breaking is rule breaking, after all – but merely to question whether a take no prisoners zero tolerance approach really is the wisest, considering the general population these kids find themselves immersed in.

Maybe we could start with not holding surprise drug tests of players on their first day back from spring break.  Hell, the Jim Harbaugh approach to spring break at IMG Academy makes more sense than that.

27 Comments

Filed under Crime and Punishment, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

So he’s saying there’s a chance.

There are no guarantees in life, of course, and I’m not saying KC Joyner’s making one, but if you’re looking for a reason to think Georgia could have a good season in 2016, take that he’s guaranteeing the Dawgs have absolutely zero chance of making the college football playoffs as exactly that.

21 Comments

Filed under Stats Geek!

Behind enemy lines

That Jarvis Jones was a pretty good linebacker.

After transferring from USC following the 2009 season and sitting out all of 2010, Jones became a terror for SEC offenses. The two-time All-American with the Bulldogs set the SEC record for tackles for loss per game (2.04) in 2012. He finished the season with 24.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks. In his debut season, the ravenous pass-rusher totaled an SEC-high 13.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss. Jones finished his Georgia career with 155 tackles, including 91 for loss, and was also a very solid player in coverage for the Dawgs.

I think that 91 tackles for loss is a misprint.  Even if I add his sacks and TFLs for those two seasons together, all I can come up with is a total of 72.  But those numbers are still ridiculous. If you doubt that, check out the TFLs and sacks for the other four players on Aschoff’s list. No one else is close.  And, yes, I get the bit about different schemes and different responsibilities, but ridiculous is still ridiculous.

Jones made Grantham look a lot smarter in 2012 than he did in 2013, that’s for sure.

8 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

As Dobbs goes, so goes Tennessee?

Barrett Sallee has written one of those typical “it’s May, so let’s post about something” pieces, in this case, a look at Joshua Dobbs’ Heisman possibilities.  It’s a fair look in that he’s not advocating either way – and as he notes, Dobbs is currently tenth on the early list – so it’s something I didn’t really pay attention to in the sense that, sure, it could go either way.

Until I saw this.

At which point, I was suddenly in wait a minute mode.  With whatever preseason hype he’s getting, Dobbs couldn’t have been that mediocre a passer last season, could he? Actually, he could and he was.  His passer rating for 2015 was 127.01.  That was good for eighth in the conference and 70th nationally.  His average yards per attempt, 6.7, was a full yard less than Grayson Lambert’s.  Sure, for a quarterback, he’s a dynamic runner, as we saw when he played Georgia, but to see all this as a basis for projecting him to become one of the best players in the country this season borders on wishful thinking, doesn’t it?

I’m not saying this to knock Dobbs, who by all accounts is a great kid and a terrific student.  But I am wondering if some of what we’re all projecting for Tennessee this season is based on the prevailing wisdom that it’s one of the few teams in the SEC that has a big advantage at quarterback based on having a returning starter there.  If that turns out not to be the case and what we’ve seen from Dobbs is really about all they’ll get, what’s a more realistic appraisal of the Vols’ chances?

12 Comments

Filed under Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Stats Geek!

Did Georgia overachieve last season?

Well, maybe a little.

… This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage…

And here are the APR standings sorted by division with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

sec21

Finally, SEC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

sec31

Okay, it’s not huge, but it’s closer to an extra win than not.  What it really makes you wonder is how the year might have gone if Richt had committed from the beginning to the grind it out approach he took after the Florida game.

The other interesting part of Matt’s piece is what he devotes to his Florida analysis.  If he’s right, Jim McElwain had better be praying to the football gods that UF avoids regression to the mean on the turnover margin front in 2016.

14 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!