Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Tuesday morning buffet

A little snow, a little buffet…

129 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Big Ten Football, Fall and Rise of Bobby Petrino, Georgia Football, Georgia Southern Football, It's Just Bidness, Recruiting, Science Marches Onward, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

Luck

No, not Oliver Luck.  Turnover luck.

I spent a morning pulling TOM data on the last five years to see if there was a pattern or edge I could find that I could use for predicting future team win behavior. Here are the bullets I found that I will post on and feature in the 2015 digital preview magazines coming out soon.

  1. The greater the turnover margin, positive and negative, the more likely and greater the regular season win change in the forthcoming season

  2. Turnover margin is very random.  Few teams can sustain a high or lower level of annual TOM.

  3. Each team is ranked and patterned into predictive pools of trends.  Teams with high and low TOMs the previous season have very high likelihoods of regular season win total changes.

As for his second point, check out the chart in this post from Bartoo:

… It always makes me laugh when someone calling a game ‘predicts’ anything about the winner and the turnover battle.  We all know winning the turnover battle wins a lot of football games.  Each coaching staff emphasizes it and coaches the hell out of the turnover battle.  Offense and defense.

However, it is not so easy to predict.  The results over the last 5 years are all over the board.  There are a lot of teams with top coaching staffs at the top of the five year rankings, but it is difficult to have great results every year.

The teams in light green are the eight FBS teams that have had a positive TO margin each of the last five seasons.  The teams in light red, those are the eight that have had a negative TO margin each of the last five years.  The other 107 teams have had a mix of results.

The Oregon Ducks, the no. 1 ranked team in five year TO margin is the only team to have a double digit TO margin in four of the last five years.  Northern Illinois and Georgia are the only other teams to hit positive double digits three of the last five seasons.  [Emphasis added.]

You’ve only got eight teams out of 120 that have managed positive turnover margin in each of the last five seasons and eight that have done the same on the negative side.  That strikes me as evidence that there’s some degree of randomness in the system.

And Georgia would have joined that first group, but for the disaster that was 2013, with its green defense and Aaron Murray having to carry the offense on his shoulders much of the season.  Given what we’ve had to say about the coaching brain trust over the last five years, how much of that would you attribute to coaching and how much to statistical noise?

24 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

Friday morning buffet

Cold day, warm buffet.

  • Here’s a look at what Trent Thompson might bring to the table.  (By the way, can we stop with the “Ray Drew was a bust” crap?)
  • Bill Connelly drops his big ass spread sheet of 2014 receiving stats on us.  And, no, you won’t find any of Georgia’s guys lurking near the top of the list.
  • Regardless of where you think the truth may lie between Jameis Winston and the woman who claims he raped her, the idea of students gathering on FSU’s campus to celebrate Winston by calling her names ought to be a head shaker.
  • The Big Ten supports an early signing period, but with a caveat from a number of its head coaches that it should be accompanied by the implementation of early official visits.
  • Another tax front to open with collegiate athletic departments? (h/t Hogbody)
  • Turnover at South Carolina “… at least 36 percent of the Gamecocks scholarship roster will be first-year players. Including players who redshirted last season, 39 of the 85 players on the team will have never played a snap for South Carolina.”
  • The spread spreads – from high school.
  • “It’s a big deal to be the first to offer.”

19 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Big Ten Football, Crime and Punishment, Georgia Football, It's Just Bidness, Recruiting, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

Wednesday morning buffet

A warm buffet for a cold morning.

46 Comments

Filed under ACC Football, Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, Recruiting, Science Marches Onward, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, The Body Is A Temple

Georgia recruits well, but does Georgia recruit well enough?

It may seem obvious to say this“Having more raw talent than a particular team only matters if you actually play that team, and it only really matters if you play that team frequently.”

But it doesn’t make it any less true.

Georgia had another solid year recruiting – top ten finish, maybe moving higher if Roquan Smith decides to come on board – but when you analyze it in the context of how the rest of the programs in the SEC did, the Dawgs only enjoy the 37th-best class.  Four SEC teams rank higher.

Perhaps that explains some of the good, but not great, results we keep experiencing.  Just something to consider.

42 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

You can never have enough buffet.

  • Here’s the complete list of players invited to the NFL combine.  Almost twice as many invitees come from Louisville as from Georgia, for what that’s worth.
  • Here’s a weird suggestion for a solution to the coaches leaving after signing day problem:  The only solution might be for the NCAA to require each team’s staff to be set before signing day…”  Aside from the almost absurd logistics involved in setting the framework for that, wouldn’t it violate antitrust law?
  • A couple of thoughtful posts at Football Study Hall about how to improve the metrics of football recruiting rankings:  one from Ian Boyd and another from Bill Connelly.
  • “I never really wanted to play in the NFL.”
  • Reactions to the Tony Ball to LSU rumors.  A little hasty?  Perhaps.
  • Who said this“I do think as I go around the league and look at some other places, we probably need to do some more in our locker room. I also said I don’t think that’s the reason that we’re not where we need to be.”
  • An ESPN SEC roundtable about coaches under pressure after signing day with no mention of Mark Richt?  Well, then.
  • Here’s a big surprise.

67 Comments

Filed under Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, Life After Football, Recruiting, SEC Football, Social Media Is The Devil's Playground, Stats Geek!, You Can't Put A Price Tag On Joe Paterno's Legacy

Tuesday morning buffet

Jump right in, folks.

13 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Big 12 Football, Georgia Football, Media Punditry/Foibles, Pac-12 Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, The NCAA