Category Archives: Stats Geek!

SEC one-possession games records

Thought this compilation of team records in one-possession games over the past five years was interesting, although I can’t say for sure how meaningful it is.

Here’s how the SEC breaks down over that period:

  • Alabama 7-7
  • Arkansas 8-12
  • Auburn 20-6
  • Florida 10-13
  • Georgia 12-13
  • Kentucky 4-10
  • LSU 18-10
  • Ole Miss 6-13
  • Mississippi State 13-6
  • Missouri 11-10
  • South Carolina 14-9
  • Tennessee 7-12
  • Texas A&M 13-14
  • Vanderbilt 9-9

What I do find meaningful…

  • Alabama played the fewest number of those type games, along with Kentucky, which is an indication of how good one is and, um, how not good the other has been.
  • Yeah, that Auburn number is amazing.  And before you chalk it all up to Gus’ rabbit’s foot, it goes back to the Chizik era.
  • LSU has a good record, but with Les Miles, that’s only half the story.
  • Dan Mullen knows how to manage a football game.

Y’all have any thoughts to add?

19 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

This is why the coaches hope Brice Ramsey is their starting quarterback.

If you look at this chart at al.com summarizing Georgia’s offenses over the last six seasons, you’ll notice the dip in yards per pass and passing yardage in 2014.  In fact, you’ll notice that both represent the lowest numbers over that entire period, with the former in particular being a sizeable fall from the previous low.  And that came despite a record high in completion percentage.

To put it more starkly, take Aaron Murray out of the equation and compare Georgia’s numbers with Hutson Mason to those with his 2009 counterpart, Joe Cox:

  • 2014:  11.1 YPP; 200 YPG; 67.4% completion ratio
  • 2009:  12.5 YPP; 201 YPG; 54.9% completion ratio

Sure, Mason had a more dynamic running game than Cox did, and, to some extent that would explain the relatively low yards per game component there.  But think about the rest of the story being told by those numbers.  Cox completed about a fifth less of his throws than did Mason, but despite that, still managed to gain better than 10% with an average throw, compared to Mason.  And keep in mind those numbers don’t take into account the interceptions each threw.  (6 vs. 17.)

If you’re throwing more zeroes than the other guy and still manage to best his yards per pass average, there’s only one explanation.  Georgia had a more effective downfield passing game with Cox in 2009 than it did with Mason last year.

I don’t think Richt and Schottenheimer want to repeat that story unless Ramsey gives them little choice.

106 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

The two faces of Greyson Lambert

Honestly, I think we’re about at the proof is in the pudding stage with Georgia’s newest scholarship quarterback, so there really isn’t much left to be said until we start getting camp reports in August.  However, I thought I’d leave you with a couple of posts about Lambert and Virginia football for you to ponder until then.

Over at Glory, Glory Georgia Blog, you can find a look at a few clips from what might have been Lambert’s best day last season, albeit in a loss, against FSU.  Now this is some cherry picking – believe me, you don’t want to see any clips of Lambert’s brutal game against UCLA – and you’ll see some good things.  Lambert displayed good footwork and decent pocket presence against the ‘Noles on his touchdown throws, and his height is an advantage.  But the placement of those throws leaves something to be desired, as did his choice of target on one.  (Watch them all and ask yourself where Aaron Murray would have put those passes.)

And keep in mind for all the good Lambert did in that game – 220 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT – he still finished with a so-so passer rating of 132.51, mainly because he averaged an anemic 6.3 yards per attempt and only completed about 57% of his pass attempts.  And that passer rating was his best of 2014 against a D-1 defense.

I won’t deny there’s something to work with there, or that the coaching Lambert received in Charlottesville is more than likely to be surpassed in Athens.  But it’s hard to look at those clips and envision an overnight transformation in time for the season opener.

If you want to look at the bigger picture, statistically speaking, Bill Connelly, as usual, is your man.  I’ll just let Bill’s summary of Lambert speak for itself.

Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild is a pro-style, balance-at-all-costs guy. That’s not the most exciting approach, but it can work if you’ve got the pieces.

And in Lambert, it seemed like he had a heck of a quarterback prototype. Lambert was a big four-star whose every move screamed “pro-style.” And he was only a sophomore, so he had plenty of time to grow into himself. But he simply didn’t play as well as lanky, less-touted Matt Johns, and the offense didn’t move as well.

  • Lambert: 5.7 yards per pass attempt (inc. sacks), 4.2% INT rate, 3.3 yards per (non-sack) carry
  • Johns: 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 3.1% INT rate, 7.3 yards per carry

Johns overtook Lambert on the depth chart this spring, and Lambert transferred. His raw potential earned him a spot at Georgia that his production certainly couldn’t have.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Experience is nice, but…

I’d rather have Alabama’s inexperience than Vanderbilt’s returning starters.

5 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

When they were good, they were very, very good, but…

From Bill Connelly’s Ohio State preview:

For this year’s preview series, I began using percentiles as a way to communicate how well a team played in each of its games last year. It is a useful concept — most of us understand percentiles thanks to standardized testing — and it gives us some clues to how a team’s final ratings came to pass.

Only five teams put together 90th-percentile performances in at least 60 percent of their games last year.

Percentage of 2014 games in the 90th percentile or better
1. Ohio State (73%)
2. Alabama (71%)
3. Ole Miss (69%)
4. Oregon (67%)
5. Georgia (61%)

That’s some pretty rarefied air there.  Ole Miss, besides its performance dropping precipitously towards the end of the season, had the misfortune of playing in the same division as Alabama, so it’s understandable that the Black Bear Rebels didn’t show up in the postseason.  But, damn, Georgia, what’s your excuse?

Of course, this is entirely consistent with Connelly’s lofty projection of Georgia’s quality entering into this season.  And none of us are going to be surprised if 2015 turns out to be another case of lather, rinse and repeat when it comes to the tale advanced stats tell about a season of Georgia football.  At some point, this team, players and coaches both, has to quit whiffing at the most inopportune moments and simply play in a manner consistent with the sum of its parts.

As to when that time may come, your guess is as good as mine.

75 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

With a little bit of luck

I know the immediate reaction to this post at Team Speed Kills about underachieving and overachieving teams in the SEC West will be “ooh, Arkansas”, but I can’t help but chuckle over Auburn’s eight wins zeroing out as a Pythagorean differential.  After all, isn’t that pretty much what we all said about the Tigers if Gus lost that ginormous rabbit’s foot of his?

25 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Stats Geek!

Friday morning buffet

Grab a plate and get in line.

8 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, It's Not Easy Being A Mid-Major, Pac-12 Football, Recruiting, SEC Football, See You In Court, Stats Geek!, The Body Is A Temple, The NCAA