Category Archives: Stats Geek!

One last stat-driven thought about the Nicholls game

As someone pointed out yesterday, Georgia’s in a bit of a free fall when it comes to advanced stats, having fallen, for example, from 12th in Bill Connelly’s preseason S&P+ projections to 27th in those through Week 3.

Dig a little deeper, though, and you’ll see why.  The percentile performances in Georgia’s first three games are as follows:

  • North Carolina:  88%
  • Nicholls:  1%
  • Missouri:  57%

No, 1% isn’t good there.  It’s also almost impossible to find any other teams posting that kind of result.  A look at the bottom ten teams here found a 0% in Buffalo’s loss to Albany, but otherwise, nothing even close.  Looking at some other embarrassing results, Mississippi State’s loss to South Alabama rated at 13% and Washington State’s loss to Eastern Washington still managed to garner a 7%.

So, me calling Georgia’s effort against Nicholls a D-minus was generous.  1% is amazingly bad.  But Georgia still managed to win, which may be even more amazing.

But that’s not really the point here.  Play that poorly in one-third of your schedule and that’s bound to bring your numbers down big time.  Play respectably going forward and you’ll see a recovery in the advanced stats numbers.

Along those lines, note that Bill still projects the Dawgs to have a 30% chance of winning nine games and a 24% chance of winning ten.  In other words, things haven’t really changed that much.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Today, in run the damned ball, Chaney

Math may be hard, but it’s math.

Advantage Saturday should go to the team with Nick Chubb.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

The knee is doing better than the line, thanks for asking.

Raise your hand if you’re surprised by this:

1. 234 of Nick Chubb’s (RB, Georgia) 302 yards have come after contact

Much has been made of Chubb’s devastating knee injury last October. Through two games, he seems to be fully recovered. Chubb leads the country with 234 yards after contact. Only 13 running backs in the country have more total yards than Chubb has after contact. One of the reasons for the large percentage of yards after contact is Georgia’s inability to run block – ranked 118th through the first two weeks. If the Bulldogs offensive line can mesh as a unit, Chubb can run them into the college football playoff.

Yeah, me neither.

You know, it’s normally the back’s job to buy his linemen a nice dinner.  If this keeps up, those guys need to pitch in and get Chubb a Bones gift card, or something.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Had ’em right where they wanted.

I started with this blurb from Team Speed Kills:

Georgia held North Carolina far below the numbers the Tar Heels gained against Illinois. That defensive performance is one that could look more impressive as the season progresses. They did give up 24 points against Nicholls State, but only allowed 236 total yards. The offense turning the ball over three times made this game closer than it should have been. A fumble at the Georgia 30 yard-line set up the first Nicholls State touchdown, while a late touchdown occurred only after a ‘Dawg fumble at its own 9 yard-line. Still, the ‘Dawg defense allowing nearly 40% completion on third downs this season must improve to reach the next tier.

The exact percentage is 37.93%.  That led me to check on last year’s third-down conversion rate, which was 28.93%, so, yes, there’s work to be done there.  But here’s the truly weird part.  Last year’s best effort in opponent third-down conversion percentage, and by a very wide margin?  Alabama, at 8.33%.  No, that’s not a misprint.

What’s so weird about that isn’t that I don’t ever come across individual stats that are misleading.  It’s that I don’t remember Georgia doing anything at all well in that game.  Go figure.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

The definition of beast mode

Per Ed Aschoff,

What might be the most impressive stat about Nick Chubb’s return is that 194 of his 222 rushing yards came with at least eight defenders in the box. That ranked first nationally. He averaged 7.76 ypc on these runs.

Go ahead and keep loading the box, though.  Jacob Eason and his receivers can use all the extra help they can get.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Eh? How’s that Year of the Quarterback going, SEC?

Not too well after week one, thanks for asking.

Again though, it’s not worth making too much out of one week, but here’s how the numbers stacked up in Kickoff Week:

There’s a good mix of quarterback talent in other leagues, particularly the Big 12, but the ACC is certainly off to a great start. The SEC … not so much.

To put it another way, out of the top passer ratings at cfbstats.com, there are two SEC quarterbacks listed in the first sixty.  For comparison’s sake, in 2012 three SEC quarterbacks finished in the top ten.

I think the technical term for this is meh.

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Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Thursday morning buffet

Come, you must be hungry.

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Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!