Skip the conclusion if you like, but this post at Roll Bama Roll comparing advanced stats for Alabama and Georgia is worth a look, if you’re interested in such stuff.
Category Archives: Stats Geek!
Feel free to sneer at the level of opposition, if that’s what blows your skirt up, but the stats say Georgia’s offense ain’t missing a beat so far with its new offensive coordinator.
– Baylor, Georgia and Ole Miss have the most efficient offenses, averaging 1.3 plays per point scored. They’re followed by Texas Tech (1.4), USC (1.4), Memphis (1.5), Georgia Tech (1.6) and Arizona (1.6).
– Baylor has been the most explosive offense, with 13.3 percent of plays going for at least 20 yards. They’re followed by Ole Miss (11.6 percent), USC (11.4 percent), Georgia (11.3 percent), North Carolina (10.2 percent) and Kentucky (10.1 percent).
Efficient and explosive. I can live with that.
Oh, and one more thing – Georgia’s first in the SEC in plays from scrimmage of ten yards or more. And that’s despite running fewer plays per game than any other team in the conference.
About that opposition… yeah, it’s been subpar. But isn’t this kind of statistical domination what we should expect to see from a very good offense against those defenses?
The computer formulas that once made up the backbone of the BCS calculations average out to rank Georgia ninth currently.
Even if you don’t care very much about advanced stats, there’s one thing Bill highlights about his Georgia stats you ought to like.
Power success rate? What’s that?
Power Success Rate
As used in Football Outsiders’ pro line stats, this is the percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.
In other words, every time Georgia has run the ball to pick up a needed third-and-short or a fourth-and-short conversion, it has. Every. Time.
You can win a lot of games doing that, I think.
Bill Connelly has managed to generate a page that has advanced statistical profiles for every 2015 FBS team. (Georgia’s, if you want to see an example, looks like this.) I am in awe of what that took to do.
It’s a terrific compliment to Marty’s yeoman work at cfbstats.com, and I recommend you keep track of it. Unless, you know, you couldn’t care less about that whole stats thing.
For the rest of you, Bill’s page is here.
If you scan Bill Connelly’s box scores for all of last week’s games, you’ll find four schools that averaged more than nine yards per offensive play.
Georgia was the only one of the four to do it against a P5 team.
And the top of the SEC is, indeed, very good. I pointed to Sagarin’s ratings on Sunday. Bill’s and Brian’s F/+ ratings tell much the same story, with four of the top five teams listed there being from the SEC.
Team Rec F/+ Rk Last Wk Change S&P+ Rk FEI Rk Alabama 2-1 71.8% 1 1 0 32.8 1 0.285 1 Ohio State 3-0 64.2% 2 2 0 29.3 2 0.255 2 Georgia 3-0 55.9% 3 5 2 27.5 3 0.211 6 Ole Miss 3-0 53.2% 4 7 3 24.2 5 0.213 5 LSU 2-0 49.9% 5 10 5 22.7 6 0.199 10
Not too shabby.