As someone pointed out yesterday, Georgia’s in a bit of a free fall when it comes to advanced stats, having fallen, for example, from 12th in Bill Connelly’s preseason S&P+ projections to 27th in those through Week 3.
Dig a little deeper, though, and you’ll see why. The percentile performances in Georgia’s first three games are as follows:
- North Carolina: 88%
- Nicholls: 1%
- Missouri: 57%
No, 1% isn’t good there. It’s also almost impossible to find any other teams posting that kind of result. A look at the bottom ten teams here found a 0% in Buffalo’s loss to Albany, but otherwise, nothing even close. Looking at some other embarrassing results, Mississippi State’s loss to South Alabama rated at 13% and Washington State’s loss to Eastern Washington still managed to garner a 7%.
So, me calling Georgia’s effort against Nicholls a D-minus was generous. 1% is amazingly bad. But Georgia still managed to win, which may be even more amazing.
But that’s not really the point here. Play that poorly in one-third of your schedule and that’s bound to bring your numbers down big time. Play respectably going forward and you’ll see a recovery in the advanced stats numbers.
Along those lines, note that Bill still projects the Dawgs to have a 30% chance of winning nine games and a 24% chance of winning ten. In other words, things haven’t really changed that much.