Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Georgia and Points Per Drive

Brian Fremeau tracks points per drive in all its permutations.

Points Per Drive data are a function of all offensive possessions in FBS vs. FBS games, excluding first-half clock kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. Teams are ranked by net points scored per drive (NPD), the difference between points scored per offensive drive (OPD) and points allowed per opponent offensive drive (DPD). Points per long drive for the offense (OLD) and opponent offenses (DLD) are calculated on possessions that begin inside the offense’s own 20-yard line. Points per remaining drive for the offense (ORD) and opponent offenses (DRD) are calculated on possessions that begin within 80 yards of the end zone. Points per value drive for the offense (OVD) and opponent offenses (DVD) are calculated on possessions that begin on the offense’s own side of midfield and reach at least the opponent’s 30-yard line.

Georgia currently ranks fifth this season in overall points per drive.  What’s really impressive about its showing is the consistency.  Across nine categories, the rankings range from 2nd to 21st.  Even Alabama has a bigger spread than that.

In case you’re wondering, Georgia finished 65th in PPD in 2016.

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Bill C. is freaking me out, PAWWWLLL.

Georgia’s advanced stat profile has flipped on the Auburn game and Bill now assesses Georgia’s chances of winning at least eleven games at 68%.

Did I already say oy today?

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UPDATE:  One serious thing to mention about Bill’s analysis — if you want to track the ebb and flow of Georgia’s games this season, all you need to look at is its S&P+ by quarter.

Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 135.7 17 200.3 1
Q2 S&P+ 113.6 50 126.9 23
Q3 S&P+ 124.1 27 200.5 2
Q4 S&P+ 87.7 104 129.1 13

 

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Balance, when things are clicking

Jake Fromm is your SEC leader in yards per attempt.

Georgia has three of the conference’s top nine backs in yards per carry.

Pretty cool, eh?

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Today’s “pinch me” stat

I don’t know what blows me away more this morning, that Georgia is fifth nationally in third-down conversion percentage, or that the Dawgs are converting more than 50% of their third down conversion attempts.  This, with the question marks at wide receiver and offensive line coming into the season, not to mention starting a true freshman quarterback for the last six games.

Those of you who are still down on Jim Chaney, you are welcome to explain your misgivings in the comments section.

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The grind, she is getting statistic-y.

This is ESPN analytics, so I don’t know how pornographic you’ll take this as being, but still…

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Oh, it’s nothing, really.

Today’s stat porn is porny.

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Passing completions and first downs

This may be turn out to be nothing more than one of those amusing little statistical matters I occasionally allow myself to be sidetracked by, but this Chase Stuart post comparing overall completion percentage to completion for first down percentage got me to thinking (dangerous, I know).  If the quarterback’s primary responsibility is to see to it that the offense doesn’t come off the field until it posts a score, then his role in moving the chains rather than just hitting his receivers would appear to be a meaningful distinction that Stuart analyzes.

Essentially, he measured total dropbacks (pass attempts plus sacks) against passing first downs.  You can probably guess what I did next.

Here’s how the SEC breaks down in that department.  Ratio is expressed as first downs by pass/dropbacks (attempts plus sacks allowed) and teams are listed in order of percentage:

  • Alabama:  54/146 (36.99%)
  • Kentucky:  60/176 (34.09%)
  • Arkansas:  47/148 (31.76%)
  • Missouri:  57/181 (31.49%)
  • Ole Miss:  68/216 (31.48%)
  • LSU:  44/144 (30.56%)
  • Vanderbilt:  51/173 (29.48%)
  • South Carolina:  60/206 (29.13%)
  • Auburn:  48/165 (29.09%)
  • Georgia:  32/114 (28.07%)
  • Texas A&M:  54/200 (27.00%)
  • Tennessee:  44/166 (26.51%)
  • Florida:  39/138 (24.64%)
  • Mississippi State:  36/152 (23.68%)

I’m not exactly sure how much to read into that.  Georgia, for example, has a pretty mediocre percentage there, but given that it has relied on the pass fewer times than any other SEC team, it’s not as significant as it might be seen in the abstract.  On the other hand, TAMU’s percentage, given the number of dropbacks, probably does indicate that its offense isn’t as smoothly efficient in moving the ball consistently as others.

Quarterback play and overall offensive philosophy are both factors, then.  I probably ought to come back to visit this at season’s end and drag general offensive production in to see if there are any correlations worth considering.

I figured I’d take a look at how the conference defenses did, as well.  (Same source for pass attempts defended, sacks and defensive first downs.)  Results are posted in the same format order.

  • Georgia:  40/204 (19.61%)
  • Mississippi State: 23/105 (21.90%)
  • Auburn:  48/214 (22.43%)
  • Alabama:  47/206 (22.82%)
  • Vanderbilt:  39/161 (24.22%)
  • Arkansas:  42/164 (25.61%)
  • LSU:  52/198 (26.26%)
  • Tennessee:  30/108 (27.78%)
  • Kentucky:  70/249 (28.11%)
  • Texas A&M:  67/230 (29.13%)
  • Florida:  48/161 (29.81%)
  • South Carolina:  73/229 (31.88%)
  • Missouri:  54/165 (32.73%)
  • Ole Miss:  50/145 (34.48%)

Obviously, there are a few variables in play here besides the quarterback, but can I just say I’m a little impressed with Mel Tucker?  Georgia is first in the country in defensive yards per pass attempt and makes it harder than any other team in the conference to throw for a first down.  Not too shabby.

Again, it’s probably best to take this for now as nothing more than a marker being placed by me.  I’ll revisit all this in a larger context after the season.  At least it’ll give me something to do in March, right?

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