Category Archives: Stats Geek!

“Fire Larry Fedora.”

David Wunderlich’s Five Factors review of the Georgia-UNC game isn’t particularly complimentary of the Tar Heels’ head coach.  He basically wonders about the same thing I do, which is why Carolina didn’t run the ball more.  (Not that I’m complaining, mind you.)

In any event, it’s hard to argue with his takeaway about Georgia.

And as for the quarterbacks, I can still imagine them splitting time for a bit. Lambert’s lack of mobility allowed UNC to tee off with the blitz, but Eason is far too willing to go for low percentage deep throws instead of checking down to something safe. As the freshman matures and learns the craft, he’ll take more and more snaps until the job is his. With Nicholls State and Missouri’s weak offense on deck before the showdown at Ole Miss, I think we’ll see plenty more of both guys as they show what they can do.

In any event, it’s safe to say that Georgia had the best Week 1 performance of any of the East’s three contenders and the best in the conference behind Alabama and maybe Texas A&M. Quiet optimism for this team is perfectly fine, but the jury’s still out on the offense until it faces Mizzou in a couple of weeks and on the defense until it goes against the Rebels the week after that.

That Ole Miss game should be quite a revelation as to what kind of team Georgia is this season.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Sometimes, the numbers do tell the story.

David Hale, with some relevant stats:

* North Carolina’s defense blitzed on one-third of its dropbacks against Georgia, a big change from the aggressiveness the Tar Heels showed last season when they blitzed less than 20 percent of the time.

* UNC averaged 4.7 yards before contact per rush, seventh-best in the Power 5. Makes you wonder why the Tar Heels didn’t run it a bit more often.

* A brutal stat for UNC: Mitch Trubisky was 0-of-8 on throws of 15-plus yards. The deep ball was North Carolina’s bread-and-butter last season, completing 44 percent of such throws with 15 touchdowns and just four picks.

That first stat may explain a little about why Georgia looked out of sorts in allowing four sacks by the Heels’ defense (for comparison’s sake, remember that the Dawgs averaged a little over a sack allowed per game in 2015).  It’s a trend Pittman and Chaney should expect will continue.

As for the latter two, North Carolina’s offensive game plan, as I mentioned yesterday, left something to be desired.  Trubisky’s inconsistency throwing the deep ball didn’t help, but it was weird to see Fedora make some excellent adjustments at the half by going to his strengths on offense that resulted in Carolina’s best drive of the day, only to turn around and abandon them for the rest of the game.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

This is your Year of the Quarterback, SEC.

Jeez, check out these passer ratings for every conference quarterback who threw at least fifteen passes in anger in the first week of the season.  Except for Drew Barker — who lost, by the way — the rest range from mediocre to abysmal.

Alabama and Georgia didn’t have a quarterback with fifteen attempts, which is why you don’t see theirs listed.  But their leading passers, both true freshmen, would be second and third on that list if included.

If you’re looking for reasons to explain the SEC’s early struggles, that’s not a bad place to start.

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UPDATE:  In case you’re wondering, the QBR story isn’t any prettier.

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Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Okay, it’s not QBR, but…

Thought the passer ratings from Saturday night were interesting.

  • Jacob Eason:  185.87
  • Greyson Lambert:  119.20
  • Mitch Trubisky:  92.76

Georgia averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt; Trubisky averaged 3.9 yppa.  Given that the Heels averaged more than 8 yards per rush, giving Hood and Logan a combined 16 carries while letting Trubisky throw the ball 40 times was coaching malpractice.

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Filed under ACC Football, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

Fun with numbers

I get that as sample sizes go, one game is as small as you get, but still, isn’t it nice to see where Georgia sits in 3rd down conversion and red zone conversion percentages this morning?

On the other hand, considering the sample size, this says a mouthful, not all of it good.

The 51-yard pass by Jacob Eason to Isaiah McKenzie was Georgia’s longest pass completion in three years, and the only 50 yard-plus pass in three seasons by a Georgia quarterback. (Todd Gurley had the longest pass completion in 2014, a 50-yarder. )

You gotta admit it was one helluva pass.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

It’s the pressure, stupid.

To illustrate further a point made in my previous post about Lambert, please see this chart compiled by David Hale:

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As we used to say in law school, res ipsa loquitur.

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UPDATE:  I asked David what “under pressure” means.  Here’s his response.

And before you say, all quarterbacks are worse under pressure, here’s some context for his performance.

Seems to me if Chaney can figure out a way to overcome that, there’s some better than average upside to be gained here.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Thursday morning buffet

Rounding things up to fill the breakfast bar…

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Filed under Academics? Academics., Auburn's Cast of Thousands, College Football, Georgia Football, Heard About Harbaugh?, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, See You In Court, Stats Geek!