Category Archives: Stats Geek!

“Preseason FPI is designed to take the guesswork out of preseason ratings.”

ESPN, any ratings system that has Tennessee coming out ahead of Alabama may be many things, but guesswork-free ain’t one of ’em.

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Filed under ESPN Is The Devil, Stats Geek!

Projected S&P+ rankings for 2016

Bill Connelly’s preseason formula for those is based on a combination of recruiting impact, returning production and recent history.  Georgia comes in 15th, which really doesn’t sound that out of line.  (It’s fifth best in the SEC, right behind Tennessee’s.)

The reason I’d hedge my bet a little on that is because Georgia shows up very well in the third category – eighth – and the staff that put that history together has largely been shown the door.  None of which is to say there can’t be an improvement, but we shouldn’t assume a case of history repeating, either.

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The further adventures of ten wins don’t mean as much as they used to

Check out Bill Connelly’s last five years of S&P+ ratings.  Georgia’s eighth overall, but notice the precipitous drop in last season’s score.  It reversed a steady trend of improvement (discounting the tally for the injury plagued 2013 season) for the program.

That’s what a couple of poor decisions on assistants and a devastating injury to Nick Chubb will do to you.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Experiencing experience

Bill Connelly continues to tinker with his analysis of returning experience.  The correlations he’s found:

With a couple years of data, here are the correlations between a percentage returning category and change in Off. S&P+ (the higher, the more correlated returning experience is with production):

  • Receiving yards returning: 0.285
  • Passing yards returning: 0.264
  • Rushing yards returning: 0.079
  • Career offensive line starts returning: 0.015

And here are the correlations between some returnee categories and Def. S&P+:

  • Passes broken up returning (overall): -0.440
  • Passes broken up returning (DBs): -0.404
  • Tackles returning (overall): -0.388
  • Tackles returning (DBs): -0.378
  • Sacks returning (DLs): -0.194
  • Passes broken up returning (DLs): -0.161
  • Tackles returning (LBs): -0.161

He finds little to no correlation between returning starters on the offensive line and a team’s offensive performance, which probably comes as a little shock to anyone who doesn’t follow Georgia football.

This is clearly a work in progress, but one that’s worth keeping an eye on, especially since Georgia doesn’t come off too unfavorably.

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Filed under Stats Geek!

I’ll take, “yeah, maybe a little” for $200, Alex.

Bill Connelly asks if bye weeks actually do help.

The verdict? An extra week off might have been worth a couple of points in 2015.

‘Bout what I thought.

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How many quarterbacks do you need?

Patrick Garbin comes up with a stat that’s curious, but ultimately not that enlightening.

…why did Coach Richt sign so few quarterbacks? (the annual average number of QB signees followed by the Georgia head coach):

3.33 (40 QB signees in 12 seasons)—Dooley
1.86 (13 QB signees in 7 seasons)—Goff
1.80 (9 QB signees in 5 seasons)—Donnan
0.87 (13 QB signees in 15 seasons)—Richt

To answer his question, the reason that jumps to mind for me is that Richt wound up coaching two four-year starting quarterbacks in Greene (who wasn’t even a Richt signee) and Murray and another three-year starter in Stafford.  That accounts for eleven of the fifteen years of his time in Athens.  When you add in Shockley’s year as a starter – there was no way anyone was going to take that away – the overall effect was to cut down pretty dramatically on the number of years that the program under Richt was attractive to quarterback recruits.

Garbin goes on to point out that the rate Richt signed quarterbacks isn’t really that far out of the norm.

Knowing Georgia had ranked sixth among current big-5 conference schools in overall winning percentage during the Richt era, for a sampling, I looked up the number of quarterback signees from 2001 through 2015 of the five schools which ranked ahead of the Bulldogs in winning percentage: 1) Ohio State, 2) Oklahoma, 3) LSU, 4) TCU, and 5) Oregon.

Compared to Georgia’s total of 13 QB signees the previous 15 years, or 0.87 annually, the five other programs averaged exactly 17 QB signees from 2001 to 2015, or 1.21 annually. The difference isn’t necessarily significant like when compared to Georgia’s previous coaching regimes; still, it’s inconsistent enough to mention.

So, some ado about not much.

The more interesting question for me is what explains the signing rate under Dooley, who signed five more quarterbacks in his last twelve years than his three successors did in the twenty-seven seasons that followed.  I’m guessing there were more than a few position changes involved, but, still, that’s a huge difference.  Thoughts, anyone?

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Filed under Georgia Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!

Tuesday morning buffet

The chef still has a lot of recruiting seasoning to use up.

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Filed under College Football, Crime and Punishment, Georgia Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!