Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

A warm buffet for a cold morning.


Filed under ACC Football, Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, Recruiting, Science Marches Onward, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, The Body Is A Temple

Georgia recruits well, but does Georgia recruit well enough?

It may seem obvious to say this“Having more raw talent than a particular team only matters if you actually play that team, and it only really matters if you play that team frequently.”

But it doesn’t make it any less true.

Georgia had another solid year recruiting – top ten finish, maybe moving higher if Roquan Smith decides to come on board – but when you analyze it in the context of how the rest of the programs in the SEC did, the Dawgs only enjoy the 37th-best class.  Four SEC teams rank higher.

Perhaps that explains some of the good, but not great, results we keep experiencing.  Just something to consider.


Filed under Georgia Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

You can never have enough buffet.

  • Here’s the complete list of players invited to the NFL combine.  Almost twice as many invitees come from Louisville as from Georgia, for what that’s worth.
  • Here’s a weird suggestion for a solution to the coaches leaving after signing day problem:  The only solution might be for the NCAA to require each team’s staff to be set before signing day…”  Aside from the almost absurd logistics involved in setting the framework for that, wouldn’t it violate antitrust law?
  • A couple of thoughtful posts at Football Study Hall about how to improve the metrics of football recruiting rankings:  one from Ian Boyd and another from Bill Connelly.
  • “I never really wanted to play in the NFL.”
  • Reactions to the Tony Ball to LSU rumors.  A little hasty?  Perhaps.
  • Who said this“I do think as I go around the league and look at some other places, we probably need to do some more in our locker room. I also said I don’t think that’s the reason that we’re not where we need to be.”
  • An ESPN SEC roundtable about coaches under pressure after signing day with no mention of Mark Richt?  Well, then.
  • Here’s a big surprise.


Filed under Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, Life After Football, Recruiting, SEC Football, Social Media Is The Devil's Playground, Stats Geek!, You Can't Put A Price Tag On Joe Paterno's Legacy

Tuesday morning buffet

Jump right in, folks.


Filed under 'Cock Envy, Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Big 12 Football, Georgia Football, Media Punditry/Foibles, Pac-12 Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, The NCAA

Friday morning buffet

Indulge yourself a little.


Filed under Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Georgia Football, It's Not Easy Being A Mid-Major, Recruiting, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Wit And Wisdom From The Hat, You Can't Put A Price Tag On Joe Paterno's Legacy

Even advanced stats love Nick Chubb.

Bill Connelly explores the subject of who the most explosive and efficient 2014 running backs were and Mr. Chubb, as you might expect, shows out pretty well.

Top 10 power-conference running backs according to Hlt/Opp * Opp Rate
1. Melvin Gordon (4.14)
2. Tevin Coleman (4.06)
3. Nick Chubb (3.72)
4. Todd Gurley (3.58)
5. Aaron Green, TCU (3.47)
6. Duke Johnson (3.16)
7. Ezekiel Elliott (3.09)
8. Samaje Perine (2.95)
9. Corey Clement (2.93)
10. Jaylen Walton (2.89)

That’s a pretty good list.

Top 5 power-conference freshman RBs according to Hlt/Opp * Opp Rate
1. Chubb (3.72)
2. Perine (2.95)
3. Dalvin Cook (2.65)
4. Nick Wilson (2.62)
5. Leonard Fournette (2.09)

I can dig it.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Turnover luck

Here’s how Bill Connelly defines it:

The concepts are pretty simple: Over time, you’re going to recover about 50 percent of all fumbles, but in a given year, you might recover 70 percent, or you might recover 30. The same goes with passes defensed; on average, you can expect to intercept about 22 percent of the passes you defense. (Passes defensed = interceptions + break-ups.) This is a bit mushier a concept … but over time a particularly butter-fingered year will be balanced by a sticky one.

The way I measure turnovers luck is pretty simple: how far were you from 50% with your fumble recoveries? How far were you from ~21-22% in your interceptions-to-breakups, offensively and defensively? By looking at broader numbers, we can basically create an expected turnover margin (called Adj. TO Margin below) and compare it to the real margin. The difference becomes your Turnovers Luck for the season. On average, a turnover is worth about five points in terms of field position value, so I take the difference between turnovers and expected turnovers, multiply it by five, divide it by games played, and voila: Turnovers Luck Per Game.

Georgia finishes as one of his top teams from last season, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s familiar with Georgia’s 2014 turnover margin.  Similarly, there’s a huge swing from the 2013 luck tally. What you wonder about in the Dawgs’ case is how much of that luck came from changes in the defensive approach to turnovers and the emphasis on offense in avoiding turnovers at the quarterback position and how much was randomly generated.  Sample size can be a bitch, you know.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!