Category Archives: Stats Geek!

The art of Corching

I posted something a few days ago about how Urban Meyer has mastered keeping his team in the playoff picture.  Here’s another example of how he works it, courtesy of Phil Steele.

You can go a long way pounding the crap out of most teams.  Even the lousy to mediocre ones.

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UPDATE:  HOT TAKE ALERT!

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Filed under Stats Geek!, Urban Meyer Points and Stares

Roquan

You may not have noticed that he’s having a good year.

Okay, okay, I’m kidding… not about the good year.

17 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Keep calm and throw.

One impressive thing about Jake Fromm’s freshman season is that, even though it’s a priority for Georgia to establish the run game to take pressure off Fromm throwing the ball, he’s damned good at handling pressure when it comes.

I mean, when you’re doing anything better than Baker Mayfield, that’s something.

Imagine what he’ll be like with another year under his belt.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

GTP, bringing you the stats before the nerds do.

One of the more endearing features of the Georgia Tech message boards is the way they’ll attempt to construct statistical arguments in years when the teams aren’t on level footing going in to make them look closer than they are.

I thought I’d save everybody a little time with that.

Some of the comparative stats are eye-opening.  Start with Tech’s ranking in defensive red-zone conversion percentage.  It’s dead last in the country.  If there’s a saving grace to that, it’s that the Jackets are 35th nationally in opponent red-zone opportunities.  Unfortunately for them, Georgia is ranked sixth in opponent red-zone opportunities and first in red-zone conversion percentage.

The odds are pretty strong that if Georgia gets inside Tech’s 20, good things are bound to happen.

We’ve all been a little disappointed that Georgia’s defense hasn’t been more disruptive this season, despite its general excellence.  Georgia ranks 65th nationally in tackles for loss.  That being said, Tech’s defense makes the Georgia defensive line look like the Steel Curtain.  The Jackets are a woeful 119th in tackles for loss.  Sony’s and Nick’s days just got a lot brighter.

It’s a similar story with sacks, as Georgia comes in 63rd in the country and Georgia Tech 97th.  Jake Fromm’s day just got a lot brighter.

If all that suggests the Dawgs should fare better with the grind, I think that’s right.  It also seems to be the case that Georgia is the more explosive team.  Georgia is 16th in plays of 20 yards or more;  Tech is 90th.  That’s also reflected in Bill Connelly’s advanced stats:  Georgia’s IsoPPP is 11th on offense;  Tech’s IsoPPP is 80th.

To be fair, one thing to note in favor of the Jackets is that their undefeated home record is no mirage.  Bill’s performance percentile in those games:  85%, 94%, 92%, 81% and 87%.  Georgia’s road success at Bobby Dodd Stadium is likely to be tested.

Hopefully, though, those numbers don’t lie.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Stats Geek!

Fromm’s passing chart

I know we’ve all caught the home/away splits on Jake’s passing stats, but how about this chart?

Wow. I don’t know if that’s on Fromm or Chaney, but somebody’s got some tendencies that need to be broken.

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UPDATE:

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Uncharted territory

Here’s a stat that nicely summarizes the season to date:

In Georgia’s first nine games, the Bulldogs only trailed for a combined 33:18 minutes. In the game against Auburn, they trailed the last 42:03.

It’s logical to assume a goodly chunk of that first number comes from the Notre Dame game, but remember that Georgia’s largest deficit in that game was six points.  That number was surpassed last week before the end of the second quarter and the gap never shrunk.

It was a kind of adversity the team simply hadn’t faced this season and it reacted poorly.  Hopefully, some lessons have been learned from the experience.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

I finally worked up the nerve…

… to look at what the advanced stats gurus had to show for the Georgia-Auburn debacle.  Kinda wished I hadn’t, though.

As a reminder, Georgia’s showed out well in Bill Connelly’s S&P+ evaluations, with six of their first nine games registering 90% or better in percentile performance.

Auburn graded out at 15%. Yecch.

For perspective, that’s lower than any Georgia game grade from last year, except Ole Miss.  Yep, even Nicholls wound up better.  In case you’re looking for more perspective, Ohio State’s drubbing at the hands of Iowa scored a 19% mark.  Notre Dame’s beat down at the hands of Miami merited a 12%, so there’s that, at least.

Pretty epic, in other words.

Brian Fremeau notes that the blame can be evenly spread.

Georgia’s 40-17 defeat on the road against Auburn was the Bulldogs’ first game this season in which its defense had negative splits (-6.9 points in expected scoring), having led the nation in defensive efficiency coming into the game. For good measure, Georgia’s offense had its worst performance as well (-10.8 points) and the Bulldogs’ special teams missed a field goal and fumbled a punt, coughing up a negative game splits total (-7.1 points) in the third phase of the game.

Hey, at least they lost as a team.

With that, I think I’m done dumpster diving into that game’s results.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!