Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Your stat two-fer of the day

If you believe in trends in evaluating Georgia’s chances on Saturday, then there are a couple of things worth noting.

  • Since 2006, Georgia is 4-0 against the Gators when rushing for 150 yards or more and 0-5 when it doesn’t.  (Before you ask, last season Chubb rushed for 156, but with Mason’s sacks, Georgia’s rushing yards totalled 141.)
  • The Dawgs are 4-1 against Florida under Richt when breaking 20 points and 1-8 when they don’t.

I would argue that’s not a small sample size, but your mileage may vary.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Why the Cocktail Party could be a competitive game

Listen, I know what happened last year.  You know what happened last year.  Georgia knows what happened last year.  Florida knows what happened last year.

“I’m sure they’ll look at the film from a year ago and see what happened,” Richt said. “There was enough success to take a look. Same quarterback. The game plan worked pretty good.”

Florida ran the ball on 60 of 66 offensive plays.

It wasn’t too complicated, Gators receiver Brandon Powell told reporters Monday.

“Last year we ran like two plays the whole game and they worked,” he said. “Two power plays and they worked the whole game.”

The obvious retort to which is that was last year.

Again, I don’t know what will be in the heads of those wearing red this Saturday, but statistically speaking there’s a pretty solid case that can be made for Georgia showing up.

Take a look at yards per play against SEC teams, for starters.  Georgia, with Lambert, Schottenheimer and whomever else you want to point accusatory fingers at, is second in the conference at 6.05 ypp.  The resurgent Gator offense is twelfth.  Florida is averaging under five yards per snap.

Ah, you say, but the defense… that’s where they have them.

Not so fast, bruh.  Defensive yards per play in SEC games?  Georgia ranks ahead of Florida there, too, although it’s much closer.

So where to find the reason Florida seems to have it more together?  Welp, take a look at turnover margin in conference games.  The Gators top the SEC, at +8.  By comparison, Georgia is a mere +1.  The difference is that Florida’s offense has done a better job of protecting the ball than has Georgia’s.

The other area that really favors Florida is red zone touchdown conversions.  The Gators punch it in at better than a 70% clip when they get inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.  Georgia converts at barely more than half that rate.

Can Georgia do a decent job of keeping Florida between the twenties?  Can the Dawgs protect the ball?  If so, there’s no reason to think they can’t make a game of it.


Filed under Gators, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Tuesday morning buffet

A rich menu at today’s buffet bar…

  • Georgia not looking back at last year’s loss to Florida“?  I call bullshit on that.  In fact, they’d better be looking back, to make sure they don’t make the same mistakes twice.
  • Man, Texas is undoing the rebranding.
  • Iowa State’s Paul Rhoades announced the firing of his offensive coordinator to the media before telling his team, because “I wanted to get to this point in the day and address you folks, then see them and look them in the eye at 1:30 when I get that opportunity…”  Yes, that makes no fucking sense.
  • Somebody in Vegas still likes Georgia“Georgia has been the favorite in this game for the entire year until now,” Kornegay said in an e-mail on Monday. “There are three reasons why the line has moved; Florida has been playing good football all year, Georgia lost their top running back, and the public has warmed up to the Gators. In our eyes, Georgia is still a better team and should be a short favorite. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Bulldogs the favorite once again on game day.”
  • There’s the second chance at Auburn, and then there’s the second chance in Athens.
  • Before you get too upset at Jeremy Pruitt for whatever faults you find in this year’s defense, at least Georgia’s never looked this bad on a play.
  • Yeah, that’s been a problem.
  • Don’t forget that Georgia will be without Dominick Sanders for the first half against Florida.


Filed under Gators Gators, General Idiocy, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, Texas Is Just Better Than You Are., What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

“This was a unique football game.”

Read Bill Connelly’s advanced stats breakdown of the Georgia-Missouri game.  You’ll laugh.  You’ll cry.  (I know I did.)

One thing’s for sure.

Average starting field position (first 4 possessions each): MU 53.5, UGA 23.8. Score: 3-3
Average starting field position (rest of game): UGA 42.4, MU 18.3. Score: 6-3 UGA

Missouri completely blew the chances of the first 25 minutes, and Georgia almost equally blew the chances of the next 35. Almost.

I have a hard time thinking of a game where starting field position translated into so little end result.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

What a difference a year makes.

After seven games, Georgia stands at 5-2.  That’s not too dramatically off from last year’s regular season pace.  But when you compare the stats compiled so far in 2015 with the 2014 numbers, you can see why there’s a disappointing feel to the year.

The NCAA tracks 25 team statistics.  Skip over the last three on the list, which really don’t have too much bearing on wins and losses, and look at the rest.  Of the remaining 22, sixteen have declined from last year to this.  Some of the more precipitous falls look like this:

  • Team passing efficiency, from 9th to 35th
  • Team passing efficiency defense, from 7th to 33rd
  • Turnover margin, from 4th to 64th
  • 3rd down conversion rate, from 8th to 109th
  • Red zone offense, from 49th to 91st
  • Net punting, from 83rd to 116th
  • Kickoff returns, from 36th to 116th

I’m not saying a good team has to be perfect in everything, but when you see multiple appearances in the bottom twentieth or, worse, bottom tenth percentile… well, those aren’t places where a good team should be showing.

There are areas of improvement, to be sure.  Defensive 3rd down conversion rate has improved from 58th to 13th.  Red zone defense is better.  The defense is giving up less first downs on average.  (Perhaps you’re noticing a pattern here.)

The overall picture, though, is that of a series of breakdowns across offense, defense and special teams.  Some of it, like the kickoff return story, I would attribute to emphasizing playing inexperienced players.  Turnover margin, of course, is subject to our old friend, regression to the mean.  But punting and passing efficiency problems… I think we know where much of the blame lies.

Sure hope those involved can find some fixes over the next week and a half.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Start and stop

When you don’t make your third-down conversions, you don’t tend to get too many plays a game.

In case you’re wondering, the defense is handling a little over 66 plays a game, which ranks 74th nationally.  Over the long haul, no, that’s not good math.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

When Georgia and stats don’t intersect

Let’s see.  Last night Georgia managed to:

  • Go 9-19 on third down conversions.
  • Have a quarterback complete more than 70% (23-32) of his pass attempts.
  • Not lose the turnover margin battle.
  • At 38:55, dominate time of possession.
  • Dominate the first down numbers, 19-6.
  • Hold Missouri to 164 yards of total offense, and, in so doing, keep the Tigers out of the end zone all night, including on the very first series, which started inside the Georgia one-yard line.

And yet despite all that, it took Georgia until there were less than two minutes left in the game to its ninth point to take the lead.

How do you pull off something like that?  Hell, it’s not easy.  You pretty much have to time your screw ups to have maximum effect in killing drives.  Add in, among other things, a missed field goal, field position difficulties in the first half, 5.2 yards per pass attempt, let sit for three or four hours and voilà!  Instant anxiety.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!