Category Archives: Stats Geek!

The further adventures of run the damned ball

The next time somebody suggests all you need to do to stop Georgia’s offense is load the box and dare the quarterback to throw, hit ’em with this:

That is a pretty friggin’ impressive stat right there, peeps.

15 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

ESPN’s inescapable logic

The one regular season game ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia to lose?

Georgia’s chances to win each game
09.05 vs. Louisiana-Monroe: 98.6%
09.12 @ Vanderbilt: 82.0%
09.19 vs. South Carolina: 84.9%
09.26 vs. Southern: 99.9%
10.03 vs. Alabama:
53.4%
10.10 @ Tennessee: 49.0%*
10.17 vs Missouri: 79.2%
10.31 Florida (Jacksonville): 71.8%
11.07 vs. Kentucky: 88.4%
11.14 @ Auburn: 53.9%
11.21 vs. Georgia Southern: 92.6%
11.28 @ Georgia Tech: 63.4%

How come?  You can probably guess the reason.

SHARON KATZ, ESPN Stats & Info: FPI sees that the Vols return an SEC-high 18 starters and have signed back-to-back top-five classes, which will pay dividends.

Well, not so much against Alabama.

Tennessee’s chances to win each game
09.05 vs. Bowling Green: 93.7%
09.12 vs. Oklahoma: 58.9%
09.19 vs. Western Carolina: 99.8%
09.26 @ Florida: 58.4%
10.03 vs. Arkansas: 54.2%
10.10 vs. Georgia: 51%
10.24 @Alabama: 31.9%*
10.31 @Kentucky: 73.9%
11.07 vs. South Carolina: 80.7%
11.14 vs. North Texas: 98%
11.21 @Missouri: 60.1%
11.28 vs. Vanderbilt: 87.2%

So Georgia is a slight favorite against the Tide and a slight-er underdog against Tennessee, which is a huge dog against Alabama. Got it.

I think they need to put ESPN’s computer on the selection committee.  It’ll fit right in.

27 Comments

Filed under Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

The Pruitt effect, ctd.

Our old friend David Hale posted something on Twitter you may find of interest:

True, as some of the FSU fans note in response, the ‘Noles lost a boat load of talent when Pruitt changed jobs.  But that doesn’t change the improvement he worked at Georgia last season.  And talk about losing talent in the secondary…

6 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

“We use a lot of stats, but this game is not that complicated.”

Interesting piece from Jon Solomon – danger, Will Robinson, CBS! – about the role for advanced stats that college coaches accept.  The answers, as you might expect, are all over the map.  The header quote is from Nick Saban, who I picture as having seventeen interns compiling every piece of analytic data known to man, only to have the Sabanator brush most of it aside as shit he doesn’t have time for.  (Still, it forces everyone else in the SEC to keep up.)

Then, there’s the Mark Richt approach to analytics.

Mark Richt, Georgia

Advanced stats he likes: Does not think Georgia uses them

“We don’t use it, not that I know of. I don’t know much about it.”

At least they don’t have to tap the reserve fund for that.

21 Comments

Filed under Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

Hump day.  Get ‘yer buffet on.

  • 100 years ago… Vanderbilt was a football powerhouse.
  • Three overrated college teams, based on advanced stats – and Georgia isn’t one of them.
  • Georgia opened preseason practice yesterday almost complete from a health standpoint.  Amazing.
  • The CFP announced yesterday that it’s expanding travel help to players’ families to cover the semifinals.  That’s a nice gesture, but it’s hard to see how you square that with amateurism.  Maybe someone could ask Stacey Osburn for a comment.
  • Pruitt on Leonard Floyd“So the good thing about Leonard is he can help everybody else right. Until we figure out the other pieces of the puzzle he’s gonna kind of do all three.”
  • More Pruitt“Sometimes your second team strong safety is better than your second team free safety,” defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt said. “So when you’re starting free safety gets hurt, it’s not real smart to put in the worse player.”
  • Even more Pruitt“This league is a physical league. You better be big up front. You better have big people so you can sustain over the course of the year…”
  • Matt Hinton says yes, the SEC West is that good.  Which makes you wonder what kind of expansion pressure will be brought to bear on the CFP if the SEC gets shut out of the semifinals because the West ate its own.
  • And Grayson Lambert sees a lot of similarities between what Virginia and Georgia run in their offenses.

17 Comments

Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, The NCAA

Tuesday morning buffet

In just a few short weeks college football returns, so I know you’ve got an appetite.

8 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Academics? Academics., Big Ten Football, College Football, Crime and Punishment, ESPN Is The Devil, Gators Gators, Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, The Body Is A Temple

Advanced stats ❤ the Bulldogs.

Georgia shows up third in Bill Connelly’s initial S&P+ projections for 2015.

Er, that’s third nationally.  (Second in the conference, behind Alabama.)

31 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!