Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Friday morning buffet

Indulge yourself a little.

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Filed under Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Georgia Football, It's Not Easy Being A Mid-Major, Recruiting, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Wit And Wisdom From The Hat, You Can't Put A Price Tag On Joe Paterno's Legacy

Even advanced stats love Nick Chubb.

Bill Connelly explores the subject of who the most explosive and efficient 2014 running backs were and Mr. Chubb, as you might expect, shows out pretty well.

Top 10 power-conference running backs according to Hlt/Opp * Opp Rate
1. Melvin Gordon (4.14)
2. Tevin Coleman (4.06)
3. Nick Chubb (3.72)
4. Todd Gurley (3.58)
5. Aaron Green, TCU (3.47)
6. Duke Johnson (3.16)
7. Ezekiel Elliott (3.09)
8. Samaje Perine (2.95)
9. Corey Clement (2.93)
10. Jaylen Walton (2.89)

That’s a pretty good list.

Top 5 power-conference freshman RBs according to Hlt/Opp * Opp Rate
1. Chubb (3.72)
2. Perine (2.95)
3. Dalvin Cook (2.65)
4. Nick Wilson (2.62)
5. Leonard Fournette (2.09)

I can dig it.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Turnover luck

Here’s how Bill Connelly defines it:

The concepts are pretty simple: Over time, you’re going to recover about 50 percent of all fumbles, but in a given year, you might recover 70 percent, or you might recover 30. The same goes with passes defensed; on average, you can expect to intercept about 22 percent of the passes you defense. (Passes defensed = interceptions + break-ups.) This is a bit mushier a concept … but over time a particularly butter-fingered year will be balanced by a sticky one.

The way I measure turnovers luck is pretty simple: how far were you from 50% with your fumble recoveries? How far were you from ~21-22% in your interceptions-to-breakups, offensively and defensively? By looking at broader numbers, we can basically create an expected turnover margin (called Adj. TO Margin below) and compare it to the real margin. The difference becomes your Turnovers Luck for the season. On average, a turnover is worth about five points in terms of field position value, so I take the difference between turnovers and expected turnovers, multiply it by five, divide it by games played, and voila: Turnovers Luck Per Game.

Georgia finishes as one of his top teams from last season, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s familiar with Georgia’s 2014 turnover margin.  Similarly, there’s a huge swing from the 2013 luck tally. What you wonder about in the Dawgs’ case is how much of that luck came from changes in the defensive approach to turnovers and the emphasis on offense in avoiding turnovers at the quarterback position and how much was randomly generated.  Sample size can be a bitch, you know.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Thursday morning buffet

Here you go.

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Filed under 'Cock Envy, Academics? Academics., Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Crime and Punishment, Georgia Football, Recruiting, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, The NCAA

Is Mark Richt a chronic underachiever?

Over the last ten years, Bill Connelly’s not seeing it.  In fact, his numbers suggest very slight overachievement on Richt’s part.

Am I trolling some of you here?  Nah… okay, maybe a little.

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UPDATE:  A little context from Mr. Connelly…

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Filed under Stats Geek!

Tuesday morning buffet

There’s always something.

  • Phil Steele updates his returning starters list here.  And here’s the list broken down by the P5 conferences.  Got to wonder what 2015 holds in store for Mississippi State and Florida.
  • In case you were wondering if offenses were better than ever last season, you’re right.
  • Bleacher Report using Michael Carvell’s click bait to ask the musical question “Is Georgia’s 2015 Recruiting Class in Danger of Collapsing?” = troll squared.  At least there’s no slideshow.
  • Hey, there’s a Twitterfest bitch slapping contest!
  • Georgia Tech is looking for donor support to provide cost-of-attendance stipends that will be given to scholarship athletes starting in the fall.  No doubt Greg McGarity is watching this with a keen eye.
  • Best recruit troll of the year.
  • Jeff Long will serve as the chairman of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee again in 2015, based on “Long’s ability to communicate the thinking of the committee to the fans”, per Bill Hancock.  I swear, you can’t make this stuff up.
  • Gentry Estes has ten questions for Georgia’s upcoming preseason.  (And wouldn’t it be refreshing if the answer to the last one was “yes”?)

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Filed under BCS/Playoffs, College Football, Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Recruiting, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, The Blogosphere

Mark Richt’s to-do list

I don’t know there is a list, of course, but every year I peek at the final stats to see if I can get an inkling of what Georgia needs to work on in the offseason.  From what I see in the 2014 numbers, that would be red zone work on offense and third down conversion improvement on defense.  The former surprises me a little, given how solid Georgia’s offense was running the ball and converting on third and fourth downs.  The latter doesn’t, though.

Oh, and net punting could definitely use some attention.

In the pleasant surprise department, I’m not sure Pruitt’s gotten enough credit for the job he did in the secondary.  A lot of people – including Pruitt – have brushed off Georgia’s numbers on defensive passing yardage based on the number of run-based offenses the Dawgs faced.  But take note of that defensive passing efficiency ranking.  Considering what he had to work with, that’s a helluva coaching job.

(By the way, congrats to Todd Gurley, Georgia’s 2014 passing efficiency leader.)

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UPDATE:  A big reason that defensive passing efficiency was so good…

It’s not so much that everybody dinked and dunked on Georgia’s pass defense as it is that there weren’t a lot of big plays given up.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!