ESPN, any ratings system that has Tennessee coming out ahead of Alabama may be many things, but guesswork-free ain’t one of ’em.
Category Archives: Stats Geek!
Bill Connelly’s preseason formula for those is based on a combination of recruiting impact, returning production and recent history. Georgia comes in 15th, which really doesn’t sound that out of line. (It’s fifth best in the SEC, right behind Tennessee’s.)
The reason I’d hedge my bet a little on that is because Georgia shows up very well in the third category – eighth – and the staff that put that history together has largely been shown the door. None of which is to say there can’t be an improvement, but we shouldn’t assume a case of history repeating, either.
Check out Bill Connelly’s last five years of S&P+ ratings. Georgia’s eighth overall, but notice the precipitous drop in last season’s score. It reversed a steady trend of improvement (discounting the tally for the injury plagued 2013 season) for the program.
That’s what a couple of poor decisions on assistants and a devastating injury to Nick Chubb will do to you.
Bill Connelly continues to tinker with his analysis of returning experience. The correlations he’s found:
With a couple years of data, here are the correlations between a percentage returning category and change in Off. S&P+ (the higher, the more correlated returning experience is with production):
- Receiving yards returning: 0.285
- Passing yards returning: 0.264
- Rushing yards returning: 0.079
- Career offensive line starts returning: 0.015
And here are the correlations between some returnee categories and Def. S&P+:
- Passes broken up returning (overall): -0.440
- Passes broken up returning (DBs): -0.404
- Tackles returning (overall): -0.388
- Tackles returning (DBs): -0.378
- Sacks returning (DLs): -0.194
- Passes broken up returning (DLs): -0.161
- Tackles returning (LBs): -0.161
He finds little to no correlation between returning starters on the offensive line and a team’s offensive performance, which probably comes as a little shock to anyone who doesn’t follow Georgia football.
This is clearly a work in progress, but one that’s worth keeping an eye on, especially since Georgia doesn’t come off too unfavorably.
Bill Connelly asks if bye weeks actually do help.
The verdict? An extra week off might have been worth a couple of points in 2015.
‘Bout what I thought.
Patrick Garbin comes up with a stat that’s curious, but ultimately not that enlightening.
…why did Coach Richt sign so few quarterbacks? (the annual average number of QB signees followed by the Georgia head coach):3.33 (40 QB signees in 12 seasons)—Dooley1.86 (13 QB signees in 7 seasons)—Goff1.80 (9 QB signees in 5 seasons)—Donnan0.87 (13 QB signees in 15 seasons)—Richt
To answer his question, the reason that jumps to mind for me is that Richt wound up coaching two four-year starting quarterbacks in Greene (who wasn’t even a Richt signee) and Murray and another three-year starter in Stafford. That accounts for eleven of the fifteen years of his time in Athens. When you add in Shockley’s year as a starter – there was no way anyone was going to take that away – the overall effect was to cut down pretty dramatically on the number of years that the program under Richt was attractive to quarterback recruits.
Garbin goes on to point out that the rate Richt signed quarterbacks isn’t really that far out of the norm.
Knowing Georgia had ranked sixth among current big-5 conference schools in overall winning percentage during the Richt era, for a sampling, I looked up the number of quarterback signees from 2001 through 2015 of the five schools which ranked ahead of the Bulldogs in winning percentage: 1) Ohio State, 2) Oklahoma, 3) LSU, 4) TCU, and 5) Oregon.
Compared to Georgia’s total of 13 QB signees the previous 15 years, or 0.87 annually, the five other programs averaged exactly 17 QB signees from 2001 to 2015, or 1.21 annually. The difference isn’t necessarily significant like when compared to Georgia’s previous coaching regimes; still, it’s inconsistent enough to mention.
So, some ado about not much.
The more interesting question for me is what explains the signing rate under Dooley, who signed five more quarterbacks in his last twelve years than his three successors did in the twenty-seven seasons that followed. I’m guessing there were more than a few position changes involved, but, still, that’s a huge difference. Thoughts, anyone?
The chef still has a lot of recruiting seasoning to use up.
- “The Bulldogs, who are ranked No. 8 in the 247Sports.com standings, have a chance to be the first Southeastern Conference program to post a top-five class amid a coaching change. Not even Nick Saban did that…”
- Stewart Mandel is sick and tired of hearing from people who think recruiting rankings are meaningless. He’s right, you know.
- Bill Connelly looks to refine that further, by seeing where recruiting rankings best align with team stats.
- Andy Staples: “The Right Way To Do Things is an idealistic fallacy.” True, but that’s never stopped anybody before.
- The sad fall of Quintavius Harrow.
- Bruce Feldman talks to college coaches about the top recruits in the 2016 class and gets feedback on Jacob Eason, Derrick Brown and Isaac Nauta.
- Here’s an early look at Georgia’s 2016 defensive depth chart.
- “It’s not like talking to your dad anymore,” said John Jackson, a former USC receiver and now a television and radio analyst. “These coaches have to be cooler now. They have to talk with teenagers on their level and entertain them for three years, so the good ones get out there on social media and figure out what’s going on. They put a lot of time into it.” Ugh.
- So true, so true.
- Jacob Park has landed at Iowa State, in case you’re interested.