The next time somebody suggests all you need to do to stop Georgia’s offense is load the box and dare the quarterback to throw, hit ’em with this:
That is a pretty friggin’ impressive stat right there, peeps.
The one regular season game ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia to lose?
Georgia’s chances to win each game
09.05 vs. Louisiana-Monroe: 98.6%
09.12 @ Vanderbilt: 82.0%
09.19 vs. South Carolina: 84.9%
09.26 vs. Southern: 99.9%
10.03 vs. Alabama:53.4%
10.10 @ Tennessee: 49.0%*
10.17 vs Missouri: 79.2%
10.31 Florida (Jacksonville): 71.8%
11.07 vs. Kentucky: 88.4%
11.14 @ Auburn: 53.9%
11.21 vs. Georgia Southern: 92.6%
11.28 @ Georgia Tech: 63.4%
How come? You can probably guess the reason.
SHARON KATZ, ESPN Stats & Info: FPI sees that the Vols return an SEC-high 18 starters and have signed back-to-back top-five classes, which will pay dividends.
Well, not so much against Alabama.
Tennessee’s chances to win each game
09.05 vs. Bowling Green: 93.7%
09.12 vs. Oklahoma: 58.9%
09.19 vs. Western Carolina: 99.8%
09.26 @ Florida: 58.4%
10.03 vs. Arkansas: 54.2%
10.10 vs. Georgia: 51%
10.24 @Alabama: 31.9%*
10.31 @Kentucky: 73.9%
11.07 vs. South Carolina: 80.7%
11.14 vs. North Texas: 98%
11.21 @Missouri: 60.1%
11.28 vs. Vanderbilt: 87.2%
So Georgia is a slight favorite against the Tide and a slight-er underdog against Tennessee, which is a huge dog against Alabama. Got it.
I think they need to put ESPN’s computer on the selection committee. It’ll fit right in.
Our old friend David Hale posted something on Twitter you may find of interest:
True, as some of the FSU fans note in response, the ‘Noles lost a boat load of talent when Pruitt changed jobs. But that doesn’t change the improvement he worked at Georgia last season. And talk about losing talent in the secondary…
Interesting piece from Jon Solomon – danger, Will Robinson, CBS! – about the role for advanced stats that college coaches accept. The answers, as you might expect, are all over the map. The header quote is from Nick Saban, who I picture as having seventeen interns compiling every piece of analytic data known to man, only to have the Sabanator brush most of it aside as shit he doesn’t have time for. (Still, it forces everyone else in the SEC to keep up.)
Then, there’s the Mark Richt approach to analytics.
Mark Richt, Georgia
Advanced stats he likes: Does not think Georgia uses them
“We don’t use it, not that I know of. I don’t know much about it.”
At least they don’t have to tap the reserve fund for that.
Hump day. Get ‘yer buffet on.
- 100 years ago… Vanderbilt was a football powerhouse.
- Three overrated college teams, based on advanced stats – and Georgia isn’t one of them.
- Georgia opened preseason practice yesterday almost complete from a health standpoint. Amazing.
- The CFP announced yesterday that it’s expanding travel help to players’ families to cover the semifinals. That’s a nice gesture, but it’s hard to see how you square that with amateurism. Maybe someone could ask Stacey Osburn for a comment.
- Pruitt on Leonard Floyd: “So the good thing about Leonard is he can help everybody else right. Until we figure out the other pieces of the puzzle he’s gonna kind of do all three.”
- More Pruitt: “Sometimes your second team strong safety is better than your second team free safety,” defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt said. “So when you’re starting free safety gets hurt, it’s not real smart to put in the worse player.”
- Even more Pruitt: “This league is a physical league. You better be big up front. You better have big people so you can sustain over the course of the year…”
- Matt Hinton says yes, the SEC West is that good. Which makes you wonder what kind of expansion pressure will be brought to bear on the CFP if the SEC gets shut out of the semifinals because the West ate its own.
- And Grayson Lambert sees a lot of similarities between what Virginia and Georgia run in their offenses.
In just a few short weeks college football returns, so I know you’ve got an appetite.
- Over at Team Speed Kills, you’ll find a list of the top ten SEC revenge games of 2015. Not surprisingly, given last season’s low points, Georgia makes the list twice.
- And here’s a list of the most expensive college football tickets on StubHub. Alabama-Georgia sits at number three.
- Attention, Bert! Academic stress increases injury risk among college football players.
- Tough times in Gator Country – Last season, Florida made $93,300 in six home dates (minus the Idaho rainout).
- There are fourteen new coordinators in the SEC this season.
- Well, there’s one tradition the SEC hasn’t abandoned – coach whining.
- Can you guess which team Bill Connelly is writing about when he says, “There’s no question that it’s a long road back to top-10 finishes, but this is still a top-40 team with top-20 potential.”?
- Year2 asks the musical question “Which top ten teams are most likely to finished unranked?“, and fits Georgia second on that list.
- The opposite of the Georgia Way is “waiting to see the thing play out”.
- Kevin Trahan finds that the new Big Ten scheduling rules are about TV money as much as the playoffs. And why should they be any different from anything else motivating college football decision making these days?
Filed under 'Cock Envy, Academics? Academics., Big Ten Football, College Football, Crime and Punishment, ESPN Is The Devil, Gators Gators, Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, The Body Is A Temple
Georgia shows up third in Bill Connelly’s initial S&P+ projections for 2015.
Er, that’s third nationally. (Second in the conference, behind Alabama.)