Interesting graphic from Brian Fremeau about home field advantage:
So, visiting teams aren’t winning more often, but they are shrinking the margin of victory. (Although I am curious to see if the uptick in 2021 is just a one-time thing, or the start of a trend reversal.)
Filed under College Football, Stats Geek!
Yes, but don’t forget that Bo’s new offensive coordinator coached him at Auburn his freshman season, so… eh, forget it.
That being said, I can’t wait for somebody to ask Lanning in his first presser after his move out west what he was thinking here.
Filed under Pac-12 Football, Stats Geek!
For some reason, I imagine this is the internal debate Kirby Smart is having about a certain decision:
I guess the question posed there is, why does the defense play worse when Stetson starts?
It’s a rhetorical question.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
I gotta tell you, the advanced stats tell a pretty consistent story, and it’s the one I was worried about going into the game — namely, how things went down on third down.
Basically, Georgia got killed when it was forced into obvious passing downs, particularly on third down. ‘Bama, on the other hand, thrived in those settings.
Advanced stats show the game was lopsided in one area: explosiveness.
Like it or not, quarterback play was the difference maker.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
From the indefatigable AirForceDawg:
HC Kirby Smart’s record at UGA: 64-15 (81%)
58-4 (93.5%) in games where the Dawgs threw 30 or fewer passes
6-11 (35.3%) in games where the Dawgs threw >30 passesStarting records when throwing > 30 passes in a game:
Eason: 3-3 at UGA; 3-4 at Washington
Fromm: 0-6
Bennett: 0-2
Daniels: 3-5 at USC; 3-0 at UGA
Point here isn’t to take shots at a particular quarterback. It’s to note that Kirby’s philosophy on program building has been consistent through all his offensive coordinators. Even with Monken, it’s been more about being creative with the passing game, rather than relying on the passing game to win games. That’s just how Smart’s built.
That’s why he’s comfortable ignoring the records of Bennett and Daniels in games that required a high volume of passing. After all, if the team is playing the way it’s supposed to, those games are anomalies that shouldn’t happen.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
If you thought Alabama’s offense did a distressingly great job creating big plays in the SECCG, you’re probably not gonna like this stat:
And it’s not a cheap stat, either: 17 plays of 50+ yards, 10 plays of 60+ yards and 6 of 70+ yards.
Filed under Stats Geek!
Here’s the thing about Stetson Bennett: yes, his legs will save you on a play or two when there’s pressure, but…
It’s a tradeoff that Smart and Monken have to factor into the equation.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Interesting take from SECStatCat:
Offensive Executive: Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia
Even though the SEC Championship didn’t go Georgia’s way, the Bulldogs are still the only SEC offense with +50% Success Rate in both facets entering bowl season. That obviously cannot happen without a somewhat consistent passer who can execute the offensive scheme. Stetson Bennett’s performance might have cemented his status as a game manager, but it’s hard to challenge the majority of the results under his watch this fall. Despite finishing 9th in Completion% and 12th in Accuracy%, the former walk-on commands the conference’s best Success Rate (53.7%), Explosive Pass Rate (15.8%), and First Down+TD Rate (43.7%). Talk about making them count. Under Monken’s guidance and a brawny ground game, SB4 used play action on nearly 30% of his attempts and targeted a screen or RPO on another 25%. Behind these guises, he popped. And, Georgia was a sheer bully at times when on schedule. But when the scheme has stuttered and the QB has been asked to shoulder the load, the sprite Bennett keeps on faltering without those props.
The Light Lifter: JT Daniels, Georgia
The former-five star hasn’t played in two months. But when he has seen action this year, he consistently has fancied targeting screens, RPOs, and routes behind the line of scrimmage. JT Daniels attempts of the latter account for an absurd 47% of his completions, 36% of his throws, and 33% of his yards have come on the latter alone. With that, it’s no wonder his average depth of target is the 2nd-lowest in the conference. No doubt not being 100% for stints of this season played a part in this conservative modus operandi. In case you forgot, he led the SEC in Deep Pass Rate and had the top Yards/Attempt amongst the conference returns ahead of this fall. This about-face is an awfully strange occurrence unless something is up. While Daniels has had a few nice downfield completions, he’s the only SECer to have a third of his yards come via RPOs. [Emphasis added.]
Maybe it’s not a matter of Stetson playing the hand Kirby’s dealt him. Maybe it’s Kirby playing the hand his quarterbacks have dealt him.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Hello, third down.
The point here, again, isn’t to shit on Stetson Bennett. It’s to illustrate that Stetson’s head coach needs to figure out what sort of games Georgia will be in against Michigan and Alabama. If the formula that worked in the first twelve — stifling defense, efficient offense that avoids third down situations — is back, Bennett is good enough to take you to the promised land. But if it’s not?
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics
Bill Connelly ($$): “Or to put it another way, Georgia is still a really, really good football team.”
It’s just that it’s a really, really good football team with a quarterback issue in big games.
Georgia matched up well with Bama in plenty of ways but got drastically outplayed at quarterback, just as it had in games against Alabama and Florida in 2020 and LSU in 2019 (aka the Dawgs’ only losses in the 25 or so months before Saturday).
In these four losses, Georgia’s opponents completed 68% of their passes at 15.4 yards per completion with a 185.5 passer rating. Georgia’s quarterbacks in those games: 48% completion rate, 12.4 yards per completion, more interceptions than touchdowns and a ghastly 101.2 rating.
For most of the past three seasons, Georgia’s quarterback play has been between sufficient and awesome. But in big games against teams with the best offense in the country, UGA passers have been forced to open things up and have failed in doing so. Stetson Bennett’s performance on Saturday certainly wasn’t Georgia’s worst in this span of time — he was 29-for-48 for 340 yards, three TDs and two picks — but we were waiting all season to see what would happen if or when Georgia found itself in genuine need of points, and what we saw wasn’t reassuring.
Before Saturday, Bennett had been on the field for just one second-half drive in which the Dawgs weren’t winning by at least 14 points. He had six such drives against Alabama and threw two picks with two turnovers on downs and seven total points. Georgia scored twice on its first three drives of the afternoon, then scored only twice thereafter. Down 10-0 early, Bama put the game away with a 38-7 run.
No, there is no guarantee that JT Daniels is a savior. But…
Smart could stick with Bennett, convinced that the lessons learned from the Bama experience can help his team moving forward, and there’s a chance he’d be proven right. But while reinserting Daniels into the lineup might lower Georgia’s floor a hair, it would undoubtedly raise the Dawgs’ ceiling too.
That choice ain’t gonna make itself, Kirbs.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
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