Category Archives: The NFL Is Your Friend.

Stay in school, kids.

The story about the NCAA reconsidering its rule about letting basketball players declare for the NBA draft but allow them the opportunity to return to college under certain conditions with their eligibility intact is interesting for what it says about what the NCAA is struggling to do with its amateurism protocol.

But I wonder how much of an impact it would really have if the policy were extended to football, as SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey has hinted might be under consideration.  Take a look at this chart:

% of student-athletes who declared for NBA draft, but were not selected

  • 2015 – 34.04
  • 2014 – 36.36
  • 2013 – 37.7
  • 2012 – 30.6
  • 2011 – 30.95

% of student-athletes who declared for NFL draft, but were not selected

  • 2015 – 25.6
  • 2014 – 37
  • 2013 – 30
  • 2012 – 18
  • 2011 – 23

In 2014, the percentage of college football players actually declaring early but not being drafted exceeded that of college basketball players, but look what happened this year.  And if you’re wondering why, it’s because the NFL got more persuasive about the odds.

The decrease in players leaving school early for the NFL came a year after the league altered its evaluation process – limiting schools to just five draft-eligible underclassmen it can request evaluations for and altering the information that players receive.

Previously, five different grades were handed out by the NFL Draft Advisory Board: As high as the first round; as high as the second round; as high as the third round; no potential to go in the first three rounds; and no potential to be drafted.

That was cut to three categories this year: first round, second round, and neither – which is the board advising the player to stay in school.

Look, as much as these coaches like to say it’s a rule change that favors the players, it’s really about the rule favoring college coaches, by letting them keep the talent around longer.  The question I have is how much a change by the NCAA would really matter, given the effect education has had.  Let’s face it – it’s not like the NFL needs these kids to come out a year early.  If they don’t, it’s one less year they get paid.

11 Comments

Filed under The NCAA, The NFL Is Your Friend.

The NFL keeps getting crankier about the spread.

Seattle’s offensive line coach Tom Cable isn’t a fan, either.

… Cable said that the proliferation of spread offenses in college has made it harder for players to adjust in the NFL, particularly the offensive linemen under his charge. That, in turn, has made it harder to evaluate players as they prepare to enter the league.

“Unfortunately, I think we’re doing a huge disservice to offensive football players — other than a receiver — that come out of these spread systems,” Cable continued. “The runners aren’t as good. They aren’t taught how to run. The blockers aren’t as good. The quarterbacks aren’t as good. They don’t know how to read coverage and throw progressions. They have no idea.”

Judging from his record as Idaho’s head coach, I’m not that convinced Cable’s got an idea.  But the more this stuff circulates, the more it grows into a real thing.  Expect more pushback from spread coaches; at this point, they’ve really got no choice.

52 Comments

Filed under Recruiting, Strategery And Mechanics, The NFL Is Your Friend.

“I can teach a third-grader in five minutes how to take a three-step drop and a five-step drop under center.”

Shorter college spread offense coaches:  NFL, you’re full of it.

49 Comments

Filed under Strategery And Mechanics, The NFL Is Your Friend.

When a meme becomes a thing – and a modest proposal

Hey, this whole “the NFL ain’t buying what spread quarterbacks are selling” thing is gettin’ real.

Even though the NFL is more pass oriented than ever before, the seven signal callers selected in this year’s draft is the fewest since 1955, when only six QBs were taken.

For perspective: More wideouts were selected among the first 40 picks (eight), than quarterbacks taken in the entire seven-round, 256-pick draft.

Ouch.  That’s gonna leave a mark in somebody’s checkbook.  And it’s getting worse.

While the small number of quarterbacks selected this year is the fewest of the common draft era (since 1967), just four signal callers that came from spread offenses have been drafted each of the last two years.

The drastic difference in the draft numbers at the position over the last two years likely has a lot more to the systems the top quarterbacks came from.

Ten of the 14 quarterbacks that were drafted a year ago ran pro-style offenses in college, as compared to the three drafted QBs who were a product of a more NFL-friendly offense this year.

Now, two years is an admittedly small sample size.  But you know how these pesky memes work.  I figure just a couple of ESPN spots devoted to the subject, and the panic will set in.

Of course, David Wunderlich is right – the NFL could roll up its sleeves and put in the effort developing quarterbacks.  But patience isn’t so much a virtue when you’ve invested a draft pick (only seven rounds now, remember) and money in a guy for whom you have no clue from his background as to whether he can make the leap.  The clock is always ticking in the NFL.

So we’re back at the fundamental problem.  The NFL isn’t going to spend a bunch of money on a developmental league when it’s had a perfectly fine one that hasn’t cost it one red cent all these years.  Nor is it going to change the role of the quarterback in some fundamental way.  And college coaches aren’t in the business of delivering talent with a red bow around it for the League so much as they’re in the business of winning, which for many means relying on spread offensive attacks.  Sounds like they’re at loggerheads to me.

Is this an insurmountable problem?  Nah, I don’t think so.  At least not in a world where money talks.  For much less than the cost of a developmental league, the NFL could simply spend some seed money at certain schools to encourage them to support pro-style offenses.  There are already places where coaches’ salaries are endowed; how about the Roger Goodell Endowment for Quarterback Studies, thoughtfully provided as long as the program has its quarterbacks taking snaps under center?

Talk about your win-win.  Let a thousand pocket passers bloom!

29 Comments

Filed under Strategery And Mechanics, The NFL Is Your Friend.

“The college game is killing us.”

I tell you what – if this is really a thing, any school out there running a pro-style offense that isn’t hyping the NFL to the skies to QB recruits is committing recruiting malpractice.

31 Comments

Filed under Strategery And Mechanics, The NFL Is Your Friend.

The spread that breaks the camel’s back?

Confession time:  I pay more attention to the NFL Draft than I do to the NFL season.  Sure, some of that is just out of natural curiosity to see where former Georgia players go and how well they do, but there is the occasional bit of information to glean that may have some bearing on the college game.

Along those lines, one thing you may have noticed is that after the two obvious talents in Winston and Mariota came off the board, it hasn’t exactly been the Year of the Quarterback.  And maybe that says something bigger.

Not to be too dramatic, but it feels as if we are seeing the deterioration of the quarterback pipeline before our very eyes. In the past 15 years, there has only been one other occasion when fewer than four quarterbacks were drafted in the first three rounds. That came two years ago, in 2013, when every signal-caller except EJ Manuel, Geno Smith and Mike Glennon remained on the board when the fourth round began.

It’s no secret that the spread offense has left NFL teams leery of college quarterbacks and clinging to their aging pocket passers. The average age of the top 10 quarterbacks last season, as measured by Total QBR, was 33. The 2013 and 2015 classes will do little to alleviate that imbalance, and the 2014 class — which includes Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr — can’t yet be counted on for salvation.

Once again, I’ll pass along the working theory of Steve Clarkson, one of the country’s top youth quarterback coaches. The NFL, Clarkson believes, is at a crossroads at the position. It must either find a better way to transition spread quarterbacks into pro schemes, or it will have to make a major philosophical change to account for the injuries caused when pro teams run the spread. At the NFL level, teams would probably have to rotate quarterbacks to run the spread full time.

That’s some crossroads you got there, fella.

It’s almost existential, if you think about it.  If the NFL can’t figure out how to train college quarterbacks coming out of spread offenses to play the NFL game, then the NFL game will have to come to the spread quarterbacks, because that’s what the pros will have to work with.  That means either a radical change in how the QB position is stocked at the NFL level, or quarterbacks being prepared differently than they are at the college level.

There’s one other possibility not mentioned:  taking quarterback preparation out of the hands of college football altogether. What if the NFL doesn’t want to change and college football doesn’t want to, either?  After all, as David Shaw said the other day, it’s not the business of a college head coach to develop the NFL’s players for the league.  If this trend continues and neither side is willing to move, is the spread what ultimately forces the NFL’s hand on creating a developmental league?

13 Comments

Filed under Strategery And Mechanics, The NFL Is Your Friend.

Tuesday morning buffet

Shall we buffet?

  • If this is the agenda for the upcoming CFP meetings, expect most of the time to be devoted to Bob Bowlsby’s whining.
  • But John Swofford says things are cool, in spite of the complaints from FSU.
  • Bill Connelly is busy tweaking his advanced stats, which still have last season’s Georgia team in pretty good standing.
  • Dawg Post looks back on what it had to say about Todd Gurley as he came out of high school.
  • Speaking of Gurley, which do you think will hurt the most in the draft – his NCAA suspension or Shane Ray’s untimely arrest citation?
  • Johnny Manziel and the evolution of the Air Raid quarterback
  • Another look at Georgia tight ends here.

20 Comments

Filed under ACC Football, BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, The NFL Is Your Friend.